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     paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 457
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
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| | Monday, August 04, 2008 - 11:04 am: |  
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This thread can be used to discuss all aspects of Oil.
This post deals with the present status of the $WTIC [ West Texas Intermediate Crude]
Month Data $WTIC
6 / 30 --------------7 / 31
===================== H=147.27
H=143.67
==================== O=140.18
O=140.00
C=127.63
===================== C=124.08
L=121.61
===================== L=120.42
The above numbers describe the Open-High_Low-Close for the candlesticks formed in the months of June - July $WTIC chart . This pattern is an "Outside Reversal" and that it has occurred in the monthly chart suggests that there is going to be much, perhaps severe, more to the downside correction . The candlestick doesn't give any guidance to how much downside just that a strong reversal is in the works..
This is perhaps given more credence by the formation of a possible Head & Shoulders pattern in the Daily $WTIC chart. . If this pattern is completed then the potential downside Target will be $93 give or take a dollar or two.
So we turn to Fibonacci levels. I know many of you scoff at them. Perhaps that is because you haven't taken the time to investigate . That aside, we'll see where the F0.382, F0.5 and the F0.618 levels are for the correction that is presently underway .
For the High the value of $147.27 was used with Lows of $49.0[Medium Term] and $96.72 [Short Term] used to calculate the various Fibonacci Levels.
Fibonacci Level Short Term Medium Term
F 0.382 127.96 110.46
F 0.500 122 .00 98.90
F 0.618 116.03 87.34
At present the correction to $125.10 in the WTIC from $147.27 is 22.8% Medium Term and 43.9% Short Term. With a Close below $127.96 we should see a test of $122 . However perhaps before that occurs we will see a bit more upside - say to the $127 - $128 level to continue developing the Right Shoulder in the Daily Chart .
Going to the Weekly Chart we can see that a Triangle has been developed . The downside Target from this pattern is $94.
Based on the data the $WTIC should eventually test the $94 - $93 level in this correction.
However this analysis can be thrown aside with one or several events occurring - major hurricane[s] taking out production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico ; terrorists destroying production supply line in Nigeria or the sinking of one or two super tankers .
The other thing to consider is that this correction might generate a bear market rally that would FAIL when the oil price correction was completed and the reversal was accompanied by a rapid rise in price with the continuance of the bull rally in oil . This could be when the Major Fall occurs in the Markets.
Paddy
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 469
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
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| | Tuesday, August 05, 2008 - 06:44 am: |
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$WTIC August 4,2009
Like a yo-yo . The price reached a High of $126.35 and a Low of $119.50 . Close was at $121.41 - down $3.69
Should now be set up for test down towards $116 barring any GRIM news that would send the price soaring.
Paddy
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 557
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| | Saturday, August 09, 2008 - 03:07 am: |
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From a short term Fibonacci viewpoint the $WTIC index is now below the F0.618 Level of $116.27 . With a Close below this Level the next Target levels are $110.46 and $108.80.
The Dow is continuing with the "crude" rally . Will be interesting to see how strong "rally" is when correction in oil is completed.
If price of oil drops below $110.46 it will probably be a "spike" event and signal the reversal of the correction.
That is how I see it . Of course a big hurricane threatening Neptune and other facilities would stop the correction right quick.
Paddy
(Message edited by paddy on August 09, 2008)
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 561
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| | Saturday, August 09, 2008 - 07:19 am: |
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NYMEX Crude Oil (Light) (Globex)
Sep 08
Open -- High -- Low -- Last -- Time -- Sett
119.90--120.08--114.80--114.99 --Aug 08,15:02 -- 115.20
Chg ----Previous Settlement
-4.82 ----120.02
Barring any hurricanes or other disrupting influences the price of oil [ $WTIC }is headed for a test of 110.46 . If that fails then 108.65 - 98.90 - 96.72. Can correct back to 87.34 and still be in an upward trend.
At time of writing price @ 114.83
Paddy
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coyotte
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Username: coyotte
Post Number: 637
Registered: 12-2002
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| | Saturday, August 09, 2008 - 08:46 am: |
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paddy
if this is a EW ABC correction which would be normal after having peaked at Wave5 ($148) and not a 5Wave correction --- one would expect the following :
1:As Wave5 to A (148 to 120 ) was 28
2:As B to Wave5 (148 to 128 ) was 20
3:Projected C = (128 - 20) = 108
failing to reach 108 would be bullish -- breaching bearish
the breaching of 108 could indicate a 5wave correction was in play.
will be interesting to see how it plays out
cheers
This too shall change. (16th verse Tao Te Ching )
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 570
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| | Sunday, August 10, 2008 - 05:35 am: |
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Coyotte: Thanks for your input. Myself I've never gotten into EW analysis. There seems to be too many interpretations: If this happens then our count needs to be adjusted . Perhaps one day I'll take a crack at fathoming them .
I think you are going to see "bearish" conditions encountered with your wave analysis. Interesting that your "line in the sand" is also a Short Term Fib 0.7 level. Watch out for a "wave" to wipe out the "line". Here is why I believe it will happen.
My "mirage" H&S pattern gives a downside Target of 96±.
:::Neckline 121 - MT Fib 0.382 : 110.46 - H&S target : 96±
---------------
By the Fibs, with a Close of 115.20, the next downside Target is 110.46. Now there are a couple of intermediate levels that may slow the descent to your critical value.
These are : 113.42 -- 112.14 -- 111.65 -- 110.46 --108.80 .When the chart gets down to that level I'll post the remainder of the levels.
Of course you realize that a hurricane or terrorist act can wipe out all this analysis. We have Turkey with a "human error" and then supposedly the Russians trying to bomb the same pipeline in Georgia. Perhaps somebody wants a reversal this week and a big one.
Regards,
Paddy
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 586
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| | Monday, August 11, 2008 - 09:33 am: |
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NYMEX Crude Oil (Light) (Globex)
An adaptation of the song going through the minds of oil traders:
"No peace, no peace .....
Keeps Georgia on my mind"
Sep 08
Open --- High --- Low ---- Last ----- Time -
115.20--116.39--115.20-- 115.72 --Aug 10,18:00
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paddy
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Username: paddy
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| | Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 12:23 am: |
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Lots of time left today but if we get a Close below $111.65 then a Test will be set up for $110.46 .
Low has been $111.64 with price just back up to $112.35 .
Paddy
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coyotte
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Username: coyotte
Post Number: 641
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| | Thursday, August 21, 2008 - 10:16 am: |
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looks like we had several "tests" last week along with a "shakeout" last Friday
If supplies dried up ??? -- which it would appear to have, we are now looking for a "test" of the low 3 weeks ago at around the 120 mark -- need to break this level with a bit of conviction .
This too shall change. (16th verse Tao Te Ching )
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 657
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| | Thursday, August 21, 2008 - 02:42 pm: |
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Coyotte : By my numbers, there are two upside levels to watch:
..................118.60 and 120.00
As long as 120 is not broken with a Close to the Upside then the price will reverse and continue with the downside correction.
Paddy
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coyotte
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Username: coyotte
Post Number: 646
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| | Thursday, August 21, 2008 - 07:10 pm: |
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Paddy:
the point is though that it never reached 108 --- hence it it would appear to be a ABC count and not a 5wave count -- the 5wave count could still come in BUT that would mean Wave 3 is not as yet complete -- on this basis the Oilers should be Traded LONG until proven otherwise by not taking out 120
all to their own poison though
cheers
This too shall change. (16th verse Tao Te Ching )
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paddy
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Username: paddy
Post Number: 660
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| | Friday, August 22, 2008 - 02:55 am: |
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Coyotte: Hell between Goldman Sachs, OPEC, Russia-Georgia, Venezuela,for starters, one could perhaps think that maybe there might be a slight bit of manipulation with the price of oil.
Like get on the train because GS says it is going to $149 and OPEC will back that UP . Venezuela won't object either!
I may be wrong on this one but the month still has a ways to go.
PS How about a chart of your EW's?
Regards,
Paddy
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paddy
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Post Number: 661
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| | Friday, August 22, 2008 - 05:04 am: |
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