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     tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 919
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 08, 2008 - 08:54 am: |  
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The 200 Day MA has formed a rounded top ~ volatility is certainly increasing and currently headded in the wrong direction (if you are long)
Weekly chart:
Happy trading DYOR
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peter1
Member
Username: peter1
Post Number: 215
Registered: 12-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 08, 2008 - 08:20 pm: |
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Thanks Tryhay. I enjoy looking at the US charts when they are posted. I assume that you are fairly bearish on this stock. There is no doubt that things are looking poor and your reasons are sound. I looked for a sell setup but could not find one at this time. I noticed the MACD buy signal on your chart, so I looked into it.
TA is great isn't it. We can always find an opposing view. In this instance I will take the bullish view. The daily chart shows numerous hits and rejections at the 48.00 level. This is very strong resistance, but it was temporarily overcome recently. This rally caused the MACD xor. Price has retraced to the 50% level of the move up, volume is lower than during the rally up. I would be looking for a move back to the 48 level as an initial target and then higher on a close above 49. I am using the fibonacci tool in IC to show a possible low risk entry into any move up.
An aggressive entry would be to buy at the 50% level (43.50) and hide the SL below the 61.8% level (41.50). This is a 2.00 risk with a profit target of 4.50 (48). I don't buy in thin air so I would wait for move above the last bar's high (44.75). My SL would be safely below the 61.8% (41.50) although if price moved below the last bar (42.90) after entry I would probably exit.
Just realised that my data is delayed by one bar, up to date data shows that I would have started this trade as the prior high (44.75) was passed, so my SL at 42.90 is in play. Risk is 1.85 with first target above 48 (1.85/3.25.)
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 921
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 08, 2008 - 09:04 pm: |
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Hello peter
I do not normally post in this thread, but was running some scans this-morning and these two came up 1,1,1. In fact I do not trade overseas stocks but I do trade the DOW at times like this.
Yes I agree there is a "short term" bounce occurring but I guess the downtrend will continue soon.
Weekly chart: Opposing Fib approach suggests to me that most of the expected bounce has happened and the downtrend is set to continue once the price action gets through the congestion (say $43 unless one wanted to trade the bounces ~ bit too tedious for me)...
IC has been a bit quiet lately ~ looks like dug is in pergatary again! Bit hard to be positive with the market action of late - I think I'll short the weekly comp...
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 956
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 16, 2008 - 08:19 am: |
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Bit of an update on JPM for them interested
Daily chart: I wonder if $32 will halt its slide?
not holding my breath...
Happy trading DYOR
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