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     paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 1531
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 02:20 pm: |  
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Rudy : Nice Harami Cross candlestick pattern . Perhaps there will be a GAP to the downside tomorrow morning.
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2352
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 15, 2009 - 04:57 pm: |
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Hi Paddy,
BHP in Oz certainly seems to be enjoying sitting on the 10 and 30 week EMAs and trading in a sideways channel. Whilst it is due to go down, it's difficult to be overly bearish at the moment. Weinstein would be starting to get a little interested at the moment.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 1548
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 21, 2009 - 04:30 am: |
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BHP-ADR [ NYSE ]
In the last three weeks several geometric figures have formed in the daily chart of BHP-ADR . All suggested that the reversal was at hand and today it came to pass.
The geometric figures include two "pennants [ geometric configuration of a triangle ] and one geometric figure designated as a BHP Herkimer Diamond . Each gives a preliminary downside target for the present correction. The immediate targets are :
BHP 7 day Pennant : $43.66 Fib @ $43.69
BHP 11 day Pennant : $41.99 Fib @ $41.91
BHP Herkimer Diamond : $39.15 Fib @ $39.11
BHP 7 day Pennant
BHP 11 day Pennant
BHP Herkimer Diamond
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 1551
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 21, 2009 - 06:22 am: |
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Good start on the correction . Should be one hell of a GAP DOWN down south in ROO LAND .
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 1572
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 01:32 pm: |
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Daily chart with Bollinger bands suggests that stock price will continue upwards to the Upper Band at $50.06 . The only possible detriment is the Evening Star that formed today. It is a bearish candlestick and there are numerous examples on this chart of bearish reversals where a Gap Down occurred after this type of candlestick was formed. However there are a couple of exceptions where the upward rise was continued so that may occur in the next session. The RSI and SSTO indicate positive movement in the near term.
The second chart shows the detail of the down sloping channel marked on the Daily chart. This chart also shows the wedge / pennant that gave a target of $43.66 to the downside. This was achieved on 04212009 when price reached $43.49 . The stock then rebounded and today reached a High of $48.05 . The Close of $47.40 has set up tests of levels 47.69 - 48.21 - 48.74 - 49.06 and if all is bullish then 50.43 which is greater than the UBB at this moment.
If all that is completed then the next event would be for BHP to retrace back down to the LBB .
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2417
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 04:14 pm: |
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Hi Paddy,
Following are my projections for BHP.
You can see that I have analysed 2 sets of 3 wave patterns. In each case I have labelled the waves 1, 2 and 3.
In the first set of 3 wave patterns wave 2 retraced wave 1 51.5% then wave 3 had a range of 72.1% of wave 1.
In the second set of 3 wave patterns wave 2 retraced wave 1 57.8% indicating that the second set of 3 wave patterns is slightly weaker than the first set. Assuming that wave 3 in the second set is 72.1% of wave 1 then we would have a target of around $32.79. However we know that the second set of 3 wave patterns is slightly weaker so we may fall a little short of this target. If we use the 51.5%/57.8% = 0.89 as a weakness factor then rather than a 72.1% move up we would get a 72.1 x 0.89 = 64.2% move up which would give us a target of $32.69 instead of the $32.79.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2421
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 27, 2009 - 12:32 pm: |
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Hi Paddy,
Further to my last post on BHP on the Australian market. Sorry for not noticing the fact that you were talking about the one on the NYSE.
My prediction on the un-discounted short term top on BHP of $32.79 looks like it is going to be closer than the discounted target of $32.69.
So far BHP has visited $32.81. My reading of this is that maybe it has retained its previous relative strength even though it was on a smaller range for the first wave of the pattern.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2428
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 28, 2009 - 10:50 am: |
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Hi Paddy,
Interesting little ascending channel forming below overhead resistance on BHP.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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paddy
Member
Username: paddy
Post Number: 1587
Registered: 03-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 29, 2009 - 08:17 am: |
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Rudy : I continue to see down as the present way for BHP. Do believe that Fib @ 43.86 will be tested along with the LBB which at this time has value of 43.78.
SSTO : %K has crossed below %D -ive signal
RSI : also headed south
Regards,
Paddy
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 2434
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 29, 2009 - 08:29 am: |
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Hi Paddy,
I agree with you mate. Forgive me for talking about the BHP on the Aussie market but it's what I trade. I can see that the lower boundary of that ascending channel in my previous post will be tested perhaps even today. If not today then in the near future.
"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"
- Andrew Lo
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