LFC - China Life Insurance

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China Mobile hershy 1 1 15-Oct-07 09:42 pm

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hershy

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Post Number: 1632
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Wednesday, November 01, 2006 - 06:57 pm:

An awesome uptrend has seen China Life go from $18.89 in May 2004 to a high of $84 last month. That is the sort of share we would all like to own.

Decided to take advantage of Monday's dip and placed a stop buy at $84.02. Got executed last night and is up from there.
Momentum is up so here's hoping !

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Post Number: 1638
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Saturday, November 04, 2006 - 06:04 am:

Took my $1 profit last night and fled the scene. May buy back again next week.

(Message edited by hershy on November 04, 2006)

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ohkoolnutz

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Saturday, December 23, 2006 - 08:16 am:

I wonder if somebody had the stomach to sit on this stock from $20 to $130.

There is no one strategy in investing. I guess to catch these stars one would have to risk having all your other positions go up and down again for years without really moving anywhere.

Imagine one had 10 positions and 9 no-gos and one star which does 500% in 3 years. We end up with a portfolio increase of 50% or 14% compounded annually. That is not that great considering you could end up with 10 no-gos and 0 stars making a single mistake.

Is long-term investing dead? I stopped losing money by not allowing losses to compound. I reached breakeven by working on my entries so that I would not get stopped out at the wrong moments. I became profitable by extending my timeframe.

What is next? How do you turn $100,000 into $1,000,000?

I have run out of cash. I looked at margin again but I just don't see how it fits into my plan. The only reason I feel more comfortable today than 18 months ago is that I lowered my risk on entry immensely. Why would I now want to increase the risk?

My day job could barely provide me with 6 x $5000 trades per year. Considering that I get paid out $5000 in dividends a year this would end up with 7 added positions to my portfolio. The more positions I add the larger these must become?!? I have to start moving from $5000/position to $7500/position but this would limit me to one trade per quarter.

I think I still haven't found the confidence to sell a profitable position and trust in my abilities to take the money and put it into another profitable position.

AWB is a good example. My original risk was 8 ticks. It went my way. I still got my stop loss 8 ticks away from my buy price. Hence my risk on the position has increased to 57 ticks. How has the risk due to this position increased for the portfolio? It's difficult to know because all positions have moved in price since I bought AWB. My portfolio risk is 9% with 18 positions. The higher my positions move the larger my risk becomes because I don't use trailing stops.

Every stock swings differently. My experience with trailing stops is terrible. You don't go to the beach and pick a random spot to lie down. You assess the sand, the frequency of the waves and their varying swings. Should a trailing stop be used to get maximum return out of a position or be used to limit the risk of a single position to 2% downside of the portfolio?

Is the best strategy to sell the position that bears the largest risk? Should one sell the position that carries 1.5x/2.0x the risk of its stake in the portfolio?

Do I have to spend another 18 months of gruelling work to find out how to maximise profits? Do the answers exist? Is this the least rewarding job in the world? There is nobody there to hold your hand, pat you on the back, or protect you from misfortune. Trading is cruel.

Since I don't know what to do it's probably best to do nothing.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

peter1

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Sunday, December 24, 2006 - 12:05 pm:

Consider setting a target for your portfolio, say +50% /yr. Then review the performance of all your positions individually. Cull the poor performers and open new trades. You can always re-enter stocks if they look like going back up.

If you have a stock that has only increased 10% during the last 6 months then this trade is lowering the performance of your portfolio. Close it and replace it.

With a large numbers positions (>20) your portfolio performance will be similar to an index, unless you develop a method of culling the poor performers and keeping the bettor performers.

Your role then changes to a portfolio manager.

hershy

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Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 06:50 am:

Chinal Life, splits 2/1.
Price moves from a high of $146.50 pre split to $52.02 post split.
I am either missing something or this is the bargain of the century.

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hilarius

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Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 10:12 am:

Hi Hershy

What does the split announcement actually say?

Could it be a holder receives 2 NEW shares for every 1 currently held?

That would explain the price change

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

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Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 10:43 am:

Hershy

To be a little more specific ...

Do you retain 1 "old" share and receive 2 "new shares" = total of 3 ?

Or do 2 new shares take the place of 1 old share?

"2 for 1" is ambiguous unless the above is known

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

ohkoolnutz

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Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 10:52 am:

2:1 or 2-1?

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/06/s12.html

Where is my abacus?

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

perler59

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Sunday, December 31, 2006 - 07:12 pm:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=LFC&time=7&freq= 1

Looks like the split was 5/2. IE 146.5 * 2 / 5 = 58.60, but the adjusted chart shows a high of $55. Hmmm

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

hershy

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Monday, January 01, 2007 - 04:56 pm:

Courtesy of the Kool one :

"The Yahoo message board says it split 2.67-1 meaning if you had 100 shares you ended up with 267 shares.

Thanks OHK

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 09:05 am:

Nice !!
+10% correction.
I bet (by going long, which I did) that the gap will close.
Not overnight of course but it will make that $15 move.

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 07:41 am:

Every now and again I do something stupid. According to my wife, every now and again i do something which is not stupid but that's another story.It is a matter of luck whether this works for me or against me. I will never forget when on a day off I noticed one of holdings in free fall. In a hurry to extract myself from a calamity I placed a sell order 20 cents below market. As soon as I hit the "confirm" button I realised my mistake but by the time I got back to amend the price the sell had executed at, I might add at a pivot point the was the year low. On a 10,000 share parcel this was an expensive mistake. The opposite had happened as well when a buy order was placed 40 cents below where I had intended to, only to have a pivot point low just drop to my level, have my trade executed and close the day 40 cents above the true market level at that time. Also a 10,000 parcel so a very nice result for a 6 hour trade.
Wednesday evening I made another one of these blunders, and again, a fortuitous one. Before going to bed I had placed an order to buy a parcel of LFC (not 10,000) but forgot to confirm the order so it was never sent. Never bothering to check if it executed, on Thursday I was pleased as punch to see the overnight results which is not what I was feeling Saturday morn after a >9% drop. You can, I am sure, imagine my reaction yesterday afternoon when I realised that i was not holding LFC.
Lucky but stupid. Mainly stupid.
Anyway, China Life has been an outstanding share. The share split, having resulted in a lower price will add to the it's attractiveness and I am still extremely bullish about the future of this company. In adjusted terms, due to the split the share price has fallen from a high of $57.85 to a low of $48.07 which is an 18.75% drop. Though all indicators are negative I feel this is a good opportunity to buy into LFC but only if it trades above the previous day's high. So that's what I will do. This time I will remember to confirm.

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ohkoolnutz

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Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:07 am:

It all happens for a reason. The other day I was reviewing my new stocks and their stops. I got distracted by dinner and after dinner I felt my work had been done and went to bed.

Just before my eye lids closed my mind said: You didn't place a stop on WWY. I asked: Didn't I place a stop on WWY? My mind said: You had the intention but you didn't do it. I get up and check and I hadn't done it.

Intuition and gut feeling is probably the most important thing. My BEAS trade got executed correctly and then it suddenly went 6% against me in an hour. In old situations I would have sold out under enormous stress. It didn't phase me this time. I just stuck to my system. I knew that the down move wasn't correct. Next day it recovered everything and a bit extra.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

hershy

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Wednesday, January 10, 2007 - 09:58 pm:

Wish I knew what is happening. One day down, one day up, next day down again. If one believes that the sun will rise in China from now on, then all stocks Chinese ought to be highly in demand. They sure are being talked up by several septic tank gurus with huge followings. LFC just listed in Shanghai yesterday and is I think the 2nd or 3rd largest insurance company in the world. Last headline I find states "huge surge" !
Very confusing.

(Message edited by Hershy on January 10, 2007)

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ohkoolnutz

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Thursday, January 11, 2007 - 06:02 am:

There are two types of stocks: the ones that are fun to talk about and the ones that are fun to own.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

hershy

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Thursday, January 11, 2007 - 06:44 am:

Asian bourses down around 1.6%
Black candles everywhere.
Finally China Life is taking on structure again.
Flag, trend is down, trend intensity falling.
With a semblance of support below last night's open a reasonable point of entry above last night's high presents itself.
If support fails, the next level is around $38.
Now THAT would be an entry !!

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Thursday, January 25, 2007 - 07:38 am:

Will it or won't it ?
Target is blue skies > $ 57.85

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Friday, February 23, 2007 - 06:25 am:

It didn't.
China life looks very much oversold after a drop of 26%.
Traded volume is way below the volume 5oMA.

The dragon is sleeping........

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

mrbzatwork

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Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 03:00 pm:

Hershy,

So are you still in this stock? If not What was your exit?

Thanks

"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." -Henry Ford

hershy

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Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 09:23 am:

G'day Mr B
Sorry for the delay in replying.
Since the error when I though I had entered but didn't, I have not been in China Life. In fact I've not looked at the LFC charts till just now and was surprised.
It is looking quite good.
Are you in ?

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

perler59

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Tuesday, June 19, 2007 - 02:45 pm:

"Invest4Profit" said this today:

In addition to the recommended portfolio
stocks, we also cover other stocks if we
see either a future opportunity, or VERY
bullish price action, as in the case of LFC.

LFC is China's biggest insurer.

China's middle class numbers 300 million.
By 2015 that's set to rise to 500 million.

Middle class people are cliched consumers.
Homes, cars and mobiles are needs.

Of course, they also need insurance.

Globally, insurance is a $4.3 trillion industry.
Despite growth of 160% over the last 5 years,
China's market is still worth just $72.3 billion.

China has 20% of the world's population,
... but just 2% of the global insurance market.

Huge sector growth is set to unfold.

China's life insurance market is the main prize.
It makes up 75% of the local market.

Only 4% of China's citizens have life insurance.
By 2015 that's expected to rise to 20%.
Eventually penetration will be 30%, then 40%.

Few sectors have the potential to grow 10 fold,
... but China's life insurance market is set to.

Being China's leading life insurance company,
... China Life is ideally placed to benefit.

LFC has 47% of the life insurance market.
Ping An, the # 2 in the sector, has a mere 17%.

LFC's distribution network is phenomenal:
# 650,000 exclusive agents;
# 15,000 field offices;
# 3,600 branches and sub-branches; and
# 87,000 co-operating bank branches.

Inevitably, massive growth will unfold for LFC.

China Life is a Top 10 Chinese brand.
LFC is also China's most trusted life insurer.

Based on LFC being the clearcut sector leader,
... and based on China's growing middle class,
I do expect LFC to be an outstanding performer.

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

hershy

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Saturday, July 14, 2007 - 08:52 am:

IG Markets changed it's platform about 3 months ago and I lost access to Us data. i did not have any trades going at the time so did not bother to rectify this. I am trialling the Pacific Traders platform and again find myself with Us access so I have revisited some old friends, LFC chief amongst them.
I know one IC brother who had bought into this monster insurance co. He must be v. happy as the stock has increased 35% since last we spoke - barely 7 months ago.

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Monday, October 15, 2007 - 09:35 pm:

China Life, like most things Chinese is powering ahead. Closed the week at $98.70. In March, it was as low as $35.86
I coulda, I woulda, I shoulda............