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     hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1632
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 01, 2006 - 06:57 pm: |  
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An awesome uptrend has seen China Life go from $18.89 in May 2004 to a high of $84 last month. That is the sort of share we would all like to own.
Decided to take advantage of Monday's dip and placed a stop buy at $84.02. Got executed last night and is up from there.
Momentum is up so here's hoping !
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1638
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 04, 2006 - 06:04 am: |
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Took my $1 profit last night and fled the scene. May buy back again next week.
(Message edited by hershy on November 04, 2006)
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 372
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 23, 2006 - 08:16 am: |
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I wonder if somebody had the stomach to sit on this stock from $20 to $130.
There is no one strategy in investing. I guess to catch these stars one would have to risk having all your other positions go up and down again for years without really moving anywhere.
Imagine one had 10 positions and 9 no-gos and one star which does 500% in 3 years. We end up with a portfolio increase of 50% or 14% compounded annually. That is not that great considering you could end up with 10 no-gos and 0 stars making a single mistake.
Is long-term investing dead? I stopped losing money by not allowing losses to compound. I reached breakeven by working on my entries so that I would not get stopped out at the wrong moments. I became profitable by extending my timeframe.
What is next? How do you turn $100,000 into $1,000,000?
I have run out of cash. I looked at margin again but I just don't see how it fits into my plan. The only reason I feel more comfortable today than 18 months ago is that I lowered my risk on entry immensely. Why would I now want to increase the risk?
My day job could barely provide me with 6 x $5000 trades per year. Considering that I get paid out $5000 in dividends a year this would end up with 7 added positions to my portfolio. The more positions I add the larger these must become?!? I have to start moving from $5000/position to $7500/position but this would limit me to one trade per quarter.
I think I still haven't found the confidence to sell a profitable position and trust in my abilities to take the money and put it into another profitable position.
AWB is a good example. My original risk was 8 ticks. It went my way. I still got my stop loss 8 ticks away from my buy price. Hence my risk on the position has increased to 57 ticks. How has the risk due to this position increased for the portfolio? It's difficult to know because all positions have moved in price since I bought AWB. My portfolio risk is 9% with 18 positions. The higher my positions move the larger my risk becomes because I don't use trailing stops.
Every stock swings differently. My experience with trailing stops is terrible. You don't go to the beach and pick a random spot to lie down. You assess the sand, the frequency of the waves and their varying swings. Should a trailing stop be used to get maximum return out of a position or be used to limit the risk of a single position to 2% downside of the portfolio?
Is the best strategy to sell the position that bears the largest risk? Should one sell the position that carries 1.5x/2.0x the risk of its stake in the portfolio?
Do I have to spend another 18 months of gruelling work to find out how to maximise profits? Do the answers exist? Is this the least rewarding job in the world? There is nobody there to hold your hand, pat you on the back, or protect you from misfortune. Trading is cruel.
Since I don't know what to do it's probably best to do nothing.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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peter1
Member
Username: peter1
Post Number: 150
Registered: 12-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 24, 2006 - 12:05 pm: |
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Consider setting a target for your portfolio, say +50% /yr. Then review the performance of all your positions individually. Cull the poor performers and open new trades. You can always re-enter stocks if they look like going back up.
If you have a stock that has only increased 10% during the last 6 months then this trade is lowering the performance of your portfolio. Close it and replace it.
With a large numbers positions (>20) your portfolio performance will be similar to an index, unless you develop a method of culling the poor performers and keeping the bettor performers.
Your role then changes to a portfolio manager.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1814
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 06:50 am: |
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Chinal Life, splits 2/1.
Price moves from a high of $146.50 pre split to $52.02 post split.
I am either missing something or this is the bargain of the century.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2006
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 10:12 am: |
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Hi Hershy
What does the split announcement actually say?
Could it be a holder receives 2 NEW shares for every 1 currently held?
That would explain the price change
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2007
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 10:43 am: |
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Hershy
To be a little more specific ...
Do you retain 1 "old" share and receive 2 "new shares" = total of 3 ?
Or do 2 new shares take the place of 1 old share?
"2 for 1" is ambiguous unless the above is known
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 379
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 30, 2006 - 10:52 am: |
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2:1 or 2-1?
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/06/s12.html
Where is my abacus?
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 908
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 31, 2006 - 07:12 pm: |
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http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=LFC&time=7&freq= 1
Looks like the split was 5/2. IE 146.5 * 2 / 5 = 58.60, but the adjusted chart shows a high of $55. Hmmm 
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1830
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 01, 2007 - 04:56 pm: |
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Courtesy of the Kool one :
"The Yahoo message board says it split 2.67-1 meaning if you had 100 shares you ended up with 267 shares.
Thanks OHK
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1836
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 09:05 am: |
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Nice !!
+10% correction.
I bet (by going long, which I did) that the gap will close.
Not overnight of course but it will make that $15 move.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1850
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 07:41 am: |
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Every now and again I do something stupid. According to my wife, every now and again i do something which is not stupid but that's another story.It is a matter of luck whether this works for me or against me. I will never forget when on a day off I noticed one of holdings in free fall. In a hurry to extract myself from a calamity I placed a sell order 20 cents below market. As soon as I hit the "confirm" button I realised my mistake but by the time I got back to amend the price the sell had executed at, I might add at a pivot point the was the year low. On a 10,000 share parcel this was an expensive mistake. The opposite had happened as well when a buy order was placed 40 cents below where I had intended to, only to have a pivot point low just drop to my level, have my trade executed and close the day 40 cents above the true market level at that time. Also a 10,000 parcel so a very nice result for a 6 hour trade.
Wednesday evening I made another one of these blunders, and again, a fortuitous one. Before going to bed I had placed an order to buy a parcel of LFC (not 10,000) but forgot to confirm the order so it was never sent. Never bothering to check if it executed, on Thursday I was pleased as punch to see the overnight results which is not what I was feeling Saturday morn after a >9% drop. You can, I am sure, imagine my reaction yesterday afternoon when I realised that i was not holding LFC.
Lucky but stupid. Mainly stupid.
Anyway, China Life has been an outstanding share. The share split, having resulted in a lower price will add to the it's attractiveness and I am still extremely bullish about the future of this company. In adjusted terms, due to the split the share price has fallen from a high of $57.85 to a low of $48.07 which is an 18.75% drop. Though all indicators are negative I feel this is a good opportunity to buy into LFC but only if it trades above the previous day's high. So that's what I will do. This time I will remember to confirm.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 410
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 09:07 am: |
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