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Author Message  yogiinoz Member Username: yogiinoz Post Number: 2113 Registered: 10-2002 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Sunday, December 10, 2006 - 12:32 am:     Hi folks, HOV ... some simple analysis, from the chart: PRICE ACTION At the recent high, candle count is becoming extreme at 11, taken from early-November lows. Using the daily close only, the candle pattern is an evening star at the recent high, so fall is likely. Latest two candles have finished on their lows, with high volume, so likely to be more downside ahead. --- VOLUME Increased steadily on rising prices and has maintained high volumes, as traders have bailed out on the recent down-days as well, indicating further weakness ahead. --- SUPPORT Likely to be found at the gap, around 33 on the last upleg. That 33 level is also a 50% retracement of the most recent rally from early-November, making it a critical level for support, where there's likely to be an ambush for unwary shorts. --- OTHER INDICATORS As Bollinger and MACD are both derived from the price itself, they are lagging indicators and probably only useful, as confirmation of our previous analysis (???) --- TIME CYCLES Would not be short, after 15122006, as there's a couple of strong and positive cycles coming into play, over the next couple of weeks. 15-18122006 ... positive spotlight on HOV ... ... could also bring some very significant long-term changes (?) 22-27122006 ... more positive news ...??? 02012007 ... difficult aspect here - finances??? 09012007 ... short rally here??? 12-15012007 ... 2 cycles here, may bring news of further difficulties ??? 24012007 ... negative cycle, finance-related??? 30012007 ... further negative news expected 14022007 ... negative spotlight on HOV Then, several minor cycles, until a significant and positive cycle (finances?), on 13032007. More later ..... --- In summary, our trading plan for HOV, would roughly read: Short, until 15122006, then reverse. Go long, until year's end. Short in the New Year, until 08012007. Short the next rally, around 12012007, for a long ride south ... maybe even until, about 12032007, then long again. Hope this helps. happy days yogi =====

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