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     hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1791
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 20, 2006 - 06:01 am: |  
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There is a 15% bearish move in this trade with target being the bottom of the gap.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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efficiency
Member
Username: efficiency
Post Number: 37
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 20, 2006 - 06:49 am: |
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This stock has a history of sharp rallies. Price to revenue is a ridiculously cheap .11x. A whopping 25% of the float is short. Would make for great rocket fuel.
Should have been shorted at $58 (failed re-test of the $64 high).
It's STILL a bull market, albeit 4 years old, in the US.
All in all, the risk/reward ratio is not favorable.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1792
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 20, 2006 - 07:07 am: |
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Hi Gary,
I agree with everything you say, except the last sentence.
RRR of 5/1 is pretty good in my book.
Only looking for a short move and I am going with the trend.
Besides, it may not even eventuate as it is a contingency order.
But mate, I welcome your comments; I was beginning to feel rather isolated here with just the Kool one and I seemingly the only posters.
Hooroo Septic Tank.
This is not an insult. It's rhyming slang for Yank.
And IT IS an endearing expression.
(Message edited by Hershy on December 20, 2006)
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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efficiency
Member
Username: efficiency
Post Number: 38
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 20, 2006 - 07:18 am: |
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Just providing a panoramic view.
IF you're looking for a US short without the rocket fuel, you might look at entering RAVN on a rally.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1793
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 20, 2006 - 07:30 am: |
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Since you mentioned risk/rewards earlier, I'd be interested in your views on this ratio vis-a-vis RAVN which I see as a much riskier trade.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1798
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 22, 2006 - 05:24 am: |
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Still waiting on the sidelines.I will abandon the trade if it does not fire tonight. Interesting to not that the inverted H & S pattern points to gap bottom as well.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1828
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 01, 2007 - 12:27 pm: |
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Hello Efficiency
I wonder if I can ask you, as our man on the ground, so to speak, to look at something unrelated to Lear.
China Life has had a 2/1 share split according to the news that I can locate from Down under. The change in price however would indicate that this is not so; a 5/2 split comes close but even this is not exact.
Are you able to throw some light on this issue for us so far from your shores ?
Wishing everyone a Happy 2007 !
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 387
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 01, 2007 - 03:25 pm: |
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The Yahoo message board says it split 2.67-1 meaning if you had 100 shares you ended up with 267 shares.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 399
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 06:58 pm: |
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It's getting tight but not tight enough for me. It may be one or two more days before we know. The triangle break in the TMF is beautiful.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 413
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 06:06 pm: |
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As things move on one has to be able to reassess the situation as it stands and not as it was. I therefore quite frequently change my trendlines as I see fit. Since I can't go short there are limited options and my setups of course always favour the long side. It's about having an open mind. I do this until I missed the boat or I find an entry.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 421
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 10, 2007 - 08:27 pm: |
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hershy,
it looks like you missed your short entry on January 5.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1863
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 10, 2007 - 09:49 pm: |
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No mate, did not miss it. Just did not short it. Watching.
Don't know if the momentum is there,especially after last night's effort.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1872
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 12, 2007 - 06:04 am: |
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So now I guess we're looking at 10% up to $34.50.
Now I'll be looking for that jet fuel you mentioned Efficiency.........
and again, I am looking for the SP to resume it's pre consolidation direction.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1915
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 08:18 pm: |
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Up 11.45%, jet fuel indeed !!
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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peter1
Member
Username: peter1
Post Number: 156
Registered: 12-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 08:47 pm: |
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Hershy: You have done the intro on volume analysis. Would you now say that the price dip in the LEA chart 5/1 - 10/1 was an attempt by the smart money to run a few stops and trap some retail players into shorting this stock knowing that they would have to quickly cover as the smart money bought knowing that the good report was coming?
I now note that the pivot low actually finished near the high for the day. Was this a good buy signal for those watching?
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 703
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 04:20 pm: |
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hilarious,
it still amazes me to see the amount of stocks that virtually go nowhere over time even after they had shown a pretty decent chart.
It sums up my frustration with trading. It's one stopped out trade after another. I know stop losses are meant to limit your downside risk and provide the growth element to ones' portfolio but for me it is more the fast way to the poorhouse jumping from loss to loss to loss. The greater the volatility the less functional stop losses become. If you look at charts in hindsight most stocks move 25% without breaking stride so the general 12% stop loss becomes useless. Add in slippage, gaps and the one-off lucky 50% surprise drop I come to ask why we don't stop trading, turn off the computer, become satisfied with what we have and meet down at the bowling alley and actually have some fun together.
One shall consider that you may have a chance of 1 in 10 in getting a 100% stock and the other 9 are stop-outs with 10% losses. If your big hit doesn't come before pick 5 you are going nowhere. A positive expectancy system doesn't mean you will make money because you can be so unlucky to only hit the bad ones or hit the trades in such unfavourable order that your best bet is to not bet at all.
I have found things to be entirely random and any analysis is futile. How dare I make an attempt to predict that Joe has lost his job last week and needs access to cash and decides to sell tomorrow? I am certain some make profits but if they hold the key to success why would they step out of line and tell us analysis is the least important factor to profits if that centric view is the one keeping them fed?
I don't care about the money. I am more upset with the fact that people say "There is this certain logic to stock market price movements and if you find it you will become financially independent." Some people make money off people looking for the logic and some are supposedly making money from the logic itself.
I have looked at thousands of charts and I can see everything but logic. One particular stock that has been on my mind since January 2006 is QAN_AX. How can you call price movements logical if from January 2006 to August 2006 millions of stockholders sell this stock down from $4.20 to $2.80 and then one morning somebody wakes up and says "Qantas is still the most profitable airline in the world. I think we'll buy it here and then later make a bid for $5.45 and suck a few billions of fees out of it and then refloat it to the poor schmucks again five years later." You can't chart such lunacy and even if you chart it you can't use a stop loss system to profit from a price which is going into the opposite direction of where it should be going. If you zoom out anybody who sold between September 2002 and August 2006 made the wrong decision. A few weeks of time proving history of a few years as null and void. Instead of stopping out you should have doubled, tripled and quadrupled down on QAN_AX. Which trading book teaches you that?
The market to many is like a magician teasing his audience with trick after trick. The audience observes, analyses the tricks, tells of how they "know" how the impossible was achieved, guesses what could be at play while in reality is none of the wiser. In rare circumstances the magician passes on his knowledge and its clarity and simplicity of illusion surprises the viewer. I hope somebody will let me in on the market secret before I die because I am losing a lot of sleep over this magic.
Incredible Charts
now with US Data
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 868
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 09:36 pm: |
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Hi ohkoolnutz ~ sounds like you need some R&R. Perhaps you should start a thread in Psychology ...
We all go through the thoughts you report in the post above & I suggest FWIW you search the archives to rejovinate yourself. One example that may be helpful is shown below:
spider wrote on Tuesday, January 06, 2004 - 11:04 pm:There is a lot more to this story but, a small part of it goes like this......
ONCE UPON A TIME...............
there was an eight legged dude who wanted to get rich quickly.......... skip over a few years where he finds out that it is not going to happen quickly................. skip ahead a bit to where he decides that crystal ball trading does not work for him.............. jump ahead a bit to where he discovers that if you find a share that has been down for a while and it shows signs of being popular again, and if all the ducks line up these suckers run for quite a while.
Small light bulb goes on, realization that following a trending share, and staying with it will make him money............... fast forward a bit to where he figures out an exit strategy where he gets to keep most of the move.
Only one problem with all this, you sometimes have to wait a long time for the right candidates to come along.
But, if you are already getting your butt kicked, what have you got to lose?
You may wish to construct a list of stage one shares and wait for real breakouts (plenty of info on this forum as to what constitutes a genuine breakout.)
Do a few searches an pick up some info on how and when to add to this position (s).
Another search to find out how to exit with the best chance of trapping your profit while still remaining in the position while it is still running.
Just as an exercise, go back an look at FUN and ask yourself if you would have exited now if you had come in at say,$1.20?
Interesting , isn't it?
Remember, it aint over till it's over.
spider.
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SPIDER HAS AN IDEA.
Trading breakouts makes the stop loss easier to manage and indicates reasonably quickly if your pick is gunna make it or not..
A brief review of your last posts suggest BOL
ohkoolnutz wrote on Saturday, February 24, 2007 - 11:25 pm:"I just can't sell at a loss, it makes me feel like i made a mistake,guess i will have to waite it out now."
It's good to know I am no longer the worst trader on this forum.
& some others was not a good choice! maybe you need to review your last say 25 traDES with some classic posts as a soundingboard to provide some context to the outcome you is describing above.
Don't get me wrong we all make mistakes in stockpicking but it is what you do about that mistake that determines the outcome of that pick on your trading capital ~ & beating up on yourself aint gunna fix it!
I trust you keep your legs together for the long haul....
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