Hovnanian Enterprises

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hershy

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Post Number: 1827
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Monday, January 01, 2007 - 09:49 am:

A "goer" for 2007 according to some guru on Fox news.
Involved in the housing industry in the US so not too much going for it fundamentally.
Long term look shows bearish H & S failing to reach target

Weekly chart shows down trend coming to an end and the start of an up trend in August, confirmed in November.

Finally the business end of the charts, the daily shows the uptrend with a 12 bar counter trend with decreasing volume. the low of this move is above the second last high so technically, it's a Blind Freddie. Such a "pump" on a widely watched TV program is bound to have an effect on the share price come Tuesday. A breakout from the counter trend would put HOV on a course to $40. The present price action is taking place above the 50% zone of the range of the last impulsive bullish move which by my count was wave 3. Wave 5 should be equal to wave one so again the target is >$40 .

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Post Number: 1835
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 09:00 am:

Nope, did not pan out that way. In fact last night's action saw HOV close below what was the top of wave 1 but as long as the SP remains above 30 we're still in wave 4 which leaves the target for wave 5 still above $38.60. Still in an up trend but Blind Freddie of course is no more.

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I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

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hershy

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Post Number: 1875
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, January 12, 2007 - 06:39 am:

Now it's starting to look really interesting. Having bounced off the base of a broadening wedge HOV seems destined to head towards wedge resistance which is a whole $11 away. With a stop loss set around $30 the risk reward ratio is 6/1.
The ideal entry would have been 1 cent above yesterday's high but here is pretty good too.
OHK, what are you thoughts about your broker? So far I have only traded CFD's but I feel the need to trade US shares from time to time and I am open to suggestions.

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 428
Registered: 10-2005

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Votes: 0


Friday, January 12, 2007 - 09:33 am:

I used to live and work in the US and hence I got a brokerage account there which required a US address to open at that time.

If I didn't have this account I would probably use Interactive Brokers LLC which accept Australian clients I believe.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

rockon

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Post Number: 114
Registered: 08-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, January 13, 2007 - 04:47 pm:

Hello Hershy,

Not sure whether U.S brokers have been covered elsewhere but I know there was some discussion on brokers and the SPI. Some of the brokers mentioned there covered U.S equities as well, as far as I can remember.

I spent some time.... ages ago .... kicking around looking for a simple and easy way to trade U.S stocks. What I found was that you also needed a university degree to navigate some of the sites.Also some of the hidden costs are a bit over the top.

My main worry was actually stumbling into an area where I didn't want to be and be charged for the privilege in $USD so eventually it all went into the too hard basket and that was that.

I have recently become a Canadian shareholder via a takeover and the companys' preferred Aust. broker just about wants me to mortgage the house in order for me to sell when the time is right,so I have started kicking around U.S brokers again. One that seems EASY & SIMPLE is www.penntrade.com . Haven't gone right into it yet but it seems more in line with what we consider to be an online broker. From what I've seen so far they cover ALL U.S & CANADIAN stocks and thats about it. And that's about all I need.

Many supposed cheap brokerages (including some Australian ) like to make up the difference with excessive transfer fees etc.etc.etc.etc. which add substantially to the final bottom line.

Sorry for breaking into your stock discussion but I hope this helps.

Regards R.

hershy

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Post Number: 1879
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, January 14, 2007 - 05:30 pm:

Thank you OHK and Rockon, I shall investigate Interactive & Penn.

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

Member

Post Number: 1891
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 10:07 pm:

HOV appears to be headed for channel top some $8 away.
That's close to 30%.

I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

Member

Post Number: 1961
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, March 04, 2007 - 10:15 am:

$37.58 was the highest point this puppy reached on this northern trip. Then it began to fall apart pulled down by the housing finance industry in the US. The danger stems primarily from the U.S. housing decline we’ve been warned about for two years. That’s where new home starts plummeted a startling 16% in January ... where sub-prime mortgage lenders are plagued with defaults ... and even some of the largest lenders are knee-deep in high-risk investments. Hovnian is right smack in the middle of this sector and it is hurting. There is a $10 inverted H & S that just completed is hovering overhead but a double bottom setup and the 2oo day MA appearing to scoop up the prices seems created just for contrarians to keep an eye on.