IUSA infoUSA
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     ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 389
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 01, 2007 - 04:23 pm: |  
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In another thread somebody stated something along the lines of "tight consolidations do not mark turning points". The person didn't clearly state what does mark a turning point but it doesn't matter.
I didn't bother replying since my viewpoint is the opposite. A favourite formation in TA is the triangle. What does a triangle look like? You get my drift. There is more to my method but I won't go into the details.
I prefer perfecting my entry with the risk of stopping out a lot with 'tight as a whistle' moves. I play the odds entering stocks as often as is needed to catch the one going for me.
Situation 1:
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 and stop out day 3 with -1%
1x stock entry day 1 followed by no stop out and a 5-month move with the worst scenario of -1%
worst possible performance -11%
Situation 2:
1x stock entry day 1 and 3-month wide swings with stop out of -4%
1x stock entry day 1 and 3-month wide swings with stop out of -5%
worst possible performance -9%
Situation 1 let's me sleep at night. I manage the downside and hope that when I replay it over and over again the odds will favour me and spare me the wide swings, uncertainty and large drawdowns.
I bought IUSA at buy stop limit $12.04 but it might be one of those failed entries. It's already moved against me 1% but there is a specialty rule I put in place for the entry day to prevent fade outs and fake outs and me violating my broker's day trade rules.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 395
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 06:10 pm: |
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stopped out
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1844
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 07:32 pm: |
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Hey Ohk,
I think it may be me you are referring to. What I said was that it is easier for a price to continue in the direction it was heading in before entering a consolidation zone rather than reverse direction. I think I was quoting Bill McLarren.
My take on this is that the longer the zone, the more likely a change.
I don't have a plan so nothing can go wrong !!!
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 401
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 04, 2007 - 08:50 pm: |
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It was actually this post:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=191443&post=1045 57#POST104557
It doesn't matter. I acknowledge there are unlimited strategies with advantages and disadvantages which can lead to success.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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