IMH Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc
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     ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 408
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 07, 2007 - 06:53 am: |  
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At first look IMH looks like a terrible investment. But there are positive points in the chart.
The MAs suggest the stock is declining but it actually has been going sideways for 12 months. One could anticipate a H&S bottom at this point with head in September, left shoulder in April and right shoulder now. It's not the traditional way of drawing a H&S but I am not much for traditions.
If we zoom in the stock will be forced to make up its mind very soon.
The minute chart gives a very interesting view of Wed 3pm until Thu 4pm. It looks like a dog fight with a narrowing triangle. Friday it broke to the top of this triangle and then there was this lengthy accumulation at $8.70 which lasted for 3 hours.
As I write this I notice that the triangle between Feb 14 and Mar 27 ends right at the anticipated left shoulder.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 419
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 10, 2007 - 08:38 am: |
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I had analysed the minute chart yesterday before the market opened. I saved the file but didn't have the courage to post it. It's a lot easier to post now since the price respected the curve and filled that tiny gap at $8.78.
The reason I didn't post it is that I am unconvinced that curves are a technical tool to be used in trading.
It's easy for a person to understand lines. They can be defined as a vector where for each unit to the right it rises by a specific unit to the top. Units may be negative.
What is a curve and how do you define its predictive path? A line only needs two points to create its predictive path. How many points does a curve require to determine its predictive path? Does the predictability increase the more points exist or do you exhaust the predictability once you reach 5 or 6 points?
I have looked at drawing tools in Paint and Photoshop and they allow you to set two points and then set two "angles" (drag line to form a curve) which form the shape of the curve. What are these angles and what effect do they have? How do you know which angle to use to achieve a specific curve? Why don't these tools allow me to draw a curve by selecting 5 points instead of the "angles"? Are only symmetric curves to be used in trading? Can you use incomplete parabolic curves that turn into continuing lines at their pivot point (infinity)?
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 456
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, January 23, 2007 - 07:16 pm: |
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stopped out.
I used to have this rule: nothing under the MAs. It's time to reimplement it.
Incredible Charts
now with US Data
- AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE data
- OTC BB and Pink Sheet stocks
- more than 500 market and sector indices
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 516
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 09, 2007 - 09:55 pm: |
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It's so hard to let the mind go. I keep checking this stock. I think its the old "I have to make the money back I lost, on the stock I lost it on". I am glad I decided against trying to out-guess if it will breach the trendline. Stocks underneath the MAs aren't cheap. They are certain losers.
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ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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