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     i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 577
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 12:04 pm: |  
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Friends, Romans, Countrymen
Lend me your ears!
Back in the golden land of OZ I have been reviewing my portfolio results for the last 2 and half months while on hols in UK, during which time I did not look at a single chart.
The All Ords rose 5.7 % and my CFDs rose a further 6.0 % giving a total gain of 11.7% in 2.5 months.
The shares were selected on fundamentals and had nothing to do with charts.
During the preceding 3 months when studying charts my CFDs fell in value while the market rose.
Conclusion ... less charting more hols
It is still good to be back in the land of wine, women and rugby union.
May all your grapes be peeled
Your Loving Emperor
Claudius
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chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 161
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 01:54 pm: |
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Hi Claudius,
OK I'll bite...
My portfolio consists of ABX AVJ AVN AYO CMQ CTO CTX CXP ETR FKP FWD JBM OXR SGW and VRE
In the last 10 weeks it has increased in value by 18.5%
In the preceeding 3 months it increased by 10.3%
No fundamentals were considered, no leverage was used, based only on charting.
I'm a bit heavy (!) on gold stocks, but intend to balance them soon with possibly some FAN, GUD, TIM and SKE
Conclusion, I'll stick with charting, but others should use whatever method suits them best.
I'm sure other traders, esp those that do it fulltime, and like messing about in boats, have done much better.
Regards, chance
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 578
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 04:25 pm: |
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Hello Chance
Well Done !!!
Now let's calculate percentage gain per hour invested in technical analysis
For the sake of the calculation my zero hours invested will count as one hour ... now let me see that is ... er ... um ....
11.7% for the "1" hour spent over the 2.5 months
Has anyone done better, taking all their hours and total % gain into the calculation?
Then again there was a time quite recently when I enjoyed doing the technical analysis for the enjoyment and the intellectual challenge ... I might get back to it for that reason ...
Not willing to let my stupid chart reading beat me! Especially when I know others are reading their charts more professionally and making heaps ...
With Best Regards
Silly Old Claudius
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 296
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 05:15 pm: |
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Welcome u Claudius,
I'm willing to give it a crack, but do I have to include the hours where I dozed off while researching the funnymentals, and becoming a chart artist.
Did you spend anytime reading your US 'bear' subscription, or did you see the light and cancel?
Cheers,
Mosaic
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andrewk
Member
Username: andrewk
Post Number: 18
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 05:48 pm: |
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Don't confuse brains with a bull market?  
Seriously though, I have come to the conclusion that charting is an important part of fundamental analysis. The reality with fundamental analysis, is there is always going to be information that you simply will not be able to find out. Some of this information will be taken into account in the charts. The other problem is that some people will be buying purely based on the charts. If you want to get the full picture of what is driving the market prices up and down, it would be foolish not to look at the charts. Thus I have come to the conclusion what most people refer to as "fundamental analysis" is fundamentally flawed because they are ignoring important information. True fundamental analysts look at the charts as well...
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 579
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 11:07 pm: |
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Hello Andrew & Citizens of Rome and beyond
Did you notice I divided my percentage gain into 2 parts?
Roughly half of my ll.7% gain was what could have been expected from the "market" average stock prices as measured by the XAO (the bull market part)
So the other half is due to separate forces which can only be luck or fundamentals, since I didn't look at charts to make the choices, (selecting was the brains or dumb luck part).
I chose stocks which I thought would outperform the average, and they did with a few exceptions ... the overall gain was double the XAO market average.
Now of course if I had looked at charts it is always possible that I may have done better.
Now that I am looking at charts again (yes I don't disregard them when not on holidays) ... QBE looks interesting to me based purely on history to date.
IF IF IF the trend continues one could calculate a price over $11 in the months ahead. (Not saying I necessarily believe it will happen ... only that it MAY do so.)
Does the QBE chart offer any greater odds than 50/50 that this will occur?
If so, how?
If not, why not?
If the chart has no predictive power but merely snapshots past activity to show a historical trend, what would signal a breakdown of that trend?
In other words all you technical wizards ... what would be your exit strategy if you bought today?
I know some of you would let a profit run if you bought a rising stock or short sold a falling stock ... but what is the signal on which you act that says the run has ended or which prompts you to exit regardless?
Would you buy, stay out or sell now? What are your charts telling you that I don't already know by not bothering with a chart ... and by simply doing a quick calculation of average % price change on the back of an envelope, and buying or selling with trailing stops?
Just wondering
Silly Old Claudius
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 580
Registered: 11-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Saturday, October 11, 2003 - 11:22 pm: |
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Hello Mosaic
I was stopped out of my US bear position a few days after going on hols .. with minimal damage.
You will remember that it was there for insurance only ... so I treat it like an insurance premium.
My house is insured also and I don't complain when I have to pay a premium, but not make a claim.
Should I renew the bear insurance ... probably yes at these higher levels prevailing ...
But I was having too much fun using my Britrail pass to scatter my blessings upon Scotland, England and Wales ... to worry about the market
My travel insurance covered the potentially dire results flowing from the fragmented administration of British railways ... which now results in a system subsidy greater than before privatisation. Then again maybe non-privatised would cost more? Who knows?
The Times was caustic in its comment that the British are the only people in the world to run a railway without rails.
This followed a weekend failure by a rail maintenance contractor to replace a rail after a service job. Result .... an express train de-railed at slow speed while attempting to exit London Kings Cross station.
You have to admire the spirit of the British as they travel under conditions of such adversity.
Being British myself means I can make these comments ... no Aussie humour is required, unless it is actually funny.
Keep those peeled grapes flowing ... I need them to ensure that my charts make sense.
Take Care
Your Fun Loving Emperor
Claudius
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andrewk
Member
Username: andrewk
Post Number: 19
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 12, 2003 - 01:06 am: |
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Don't get me wrong, I still believe fundamentals can be important, particularly for those with very large amounts (Buffett anyone ) of capital and longer time frames. I did notice you divided up the percentage gain. 12% over 10 weeks is very good, particularly if you can keep it up - the thought of compounding is making me drool.
Now for QBE.. On the one hand, there is little long term resistance that will influence the price until somewhere in the $11 region. Now the long term trend is still up, but the short term trend is still sideways from the end of August. - I would probably not buy this stock just yet.. That is not to say it won't move to somewhere above $11, but it has to break through the resistance first..
If I was holding QBE with a reasonable time frame in mind, I would continue to hold until it broke through my trend lines - right now, the stop loss would probably be set just below 9.60. But my tolerance and time frame may be different than other people.
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 298
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 12, 2003 - 09:09 am: |
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Hi u Claudius,
If you start to miss ye old England, I would highly recommend Calander Girls - a story about some pommy ex-vestal virgins who.......
I may be missing something, but wouldn't being stopped out of your bear insurance mean that you cancelled your insurance policy at a time (when you are out of contact with the market) when one could argue it is most desirable to have downside protection active.
I have been lead to believe that reasonably priced insurance policy is an out of the money put.
Cheers, your not so loyal servant,
Mosaic
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chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 162
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 12, 2003 - 09:36 am: |
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S.O.Claudius,
I wouldn't be getting into QBE as it's rate of increase is only 36%, have a look at IAG, it's doing twice that.
If I did get in, I would exit at a change in trend.
One of the best descriptions of a this can be found on Rocky Tapscotts site
http://www.the-stock-market-trader.com/
It consists of a combination of;
1. Trendline breach
2. Moving average crossover
3. Lowerlow/Higher high
Ignore the hype, and load up with reflex first!
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 584
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 12, 2003 - 09:45 am: |
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Hi again Mosaic
You are absolutely right ... I should have renewed the insurance ... and in fact struggled by phone and e-mail to make sure my house insurance was renewed (it fell due while I was away and they wouldn't tell me the new premium before I left).
I was so highly irritated by that lack of service that I swore off insurance renewing at that point ... after finally paying the house premium
Perhaps at the back of my mind was my bearish subscription service's last message before I left which said if the S & P rose to their and my stop level they would be standing aside from their bearish position until an upward break through the earlier July high completed itself ...
That I thought was a clear sign that they had much reduced confidence in their own bear prediction ... for at least a few weeks
So yes I failed to carry my insurance on ... and I admit I was keeping a weather eye on the strong FTSE and Dow via my daily purchase of The Times ...
Old habits die hard!
So I guess you could say I took a calculated risk based on a gut/informed feeling the markets were remaining strong ...
I also continued to receive a daily advice by e-mail of my total CFD valuation ... it too was rising strongly ...
I am now considering an insurance stop sell when the market opens tomorrow morning ... at a substantially higher level than if I had renewed immediately in August
Call it rat cunning or dumb luck!
Basically you are right ... insurance is insurance ... and from a purely insurance perspective I should have acted earlier
Thanks for keeping me honest ... though some of my citizens think my alcohol intake makes me devious
At least I am a happy drunk 
Silly Old Claudius
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 585
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 12, 2003 - 09:50 am: |
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Hi there Chance!
Thanks for that site ... I do hold IAG so I might increase their weighting based on your thoughts
I love to talk like a fund manager even when only investing peanuts!
Cheers
Claudius
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chance
Member
Username: chance
Post Number: 163
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 12, 2003 - 10:23 am: |
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