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     i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1108
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 19, 2003 - 04:29 pm: |  
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Greetings Beloved Forum Citizens ..................................................................................................................................................
Just when you thought it was safe to go out for Christmas drinkies ...
Just when you thought your Emperor had deserted you ...
There comes news from the Imperial Treasury Team ... sweating away in the catacombs ...
Dedicated as we are to the task of finding the Holy Grail ...
Unable to stop for a moment from our focus on the task at hand ...
Persevering like Jonny Wilkinson in the task of kicking goals all year round ...
We bring to you a glimpse of our Imperial Research ...
A scroll in wondrous Wattyl colours ...
Can you view this scroll of many colours and not wish to lend a hand?
Are you not inspired to send your Emperor your own personal list of Stage 2 ASX 100 stocks?
If so we will send you our Imperial Spreadsheet by express e-mail which enables you to view the ASX 100 stocks easily ... and fill in your own Weinstein Stage Selections to add to the pool of Imperial Research .....
Sectors are provided !!!
Return your scroll to your Emperor and you may qualify for a badge of office in the Order of the Imperial Toga ... Entry Level
We will reciprocate by sending our Stage 2 List based on the survey findings
You may then be invited to help the Treasury Team by standing guard over a small watch list of stocks ... charged with the task of alerting the Treasury Team and the Forum of any interesting developments in your carefully guarded scrolls ... and we can all share in discovering the most interesting Stage 2 candidates for further study ... by posting details of our research
Forum Members can you not feel a frisson of excitement as this search for the Holy Grail reaches new heights?
Can you bear to stand there getting progressively more befuddled at your Christmas party and not tear yourself away to join the Quest?
Well if need be continue to get befuddled tonight ... we can all be befuddled together for just this one evening ... but in the clear light of day I beg you to answer your Emperor's call ...
Join the Quest and one day an Imperial Golden Toga could be yours ... !!!
Send for the spreadsheet before another day is over !!!
Your Beloved Emperor Claudius (who can not sleep while thinking about his devoted subjects)
(Message edited by I_Claudius on December 19, 2003)
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rhen
Member
Username: rhen
Post Number: 72
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 19, 2003 - 05:17 pm: |
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Hope this is suitable/useful?:
regards
rhen
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1109
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 19, 2003 - 08:03 pm: |
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Hi Rhen
Thanks for an interesting contribution.
What is so intriguing is the way charts tease us.
Could it be about to behave as it it did in August/Sept?
Or is it overbought and ready to return to a support level?
Who knows?
With Best Wishes
Claudius
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macka
Member
Username: macka
Post Number: 29
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 03:34 pm: |
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Is BLD entering into a Stage 4 phase????...
Macka
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i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1118
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 20, 2003 - 05:21 pm: |
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Hello Macka
I would have said Stage 3 at the moment ... but the recent lower low if followed by a lower high would certainly mean it should be watched for the possibility of more of the same ...
On the other hand it has a healthy fundamental history ... does the chart tell us everything we need to know?
Claudius
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 168
Registered: 11-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Tuesday, January 06, 2004 - 10:14 am: |
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Hi Claudius
You may want to read this article when you get a spare moment (ignore any subliminal marketing).
http://www.iitm.com/consulting/vkt_interview.htm
For me it highlights the IRRELEVANCE of any "holy grail"-type trading system; rather, I think I will have found the holy grail when I've fully taken control of all my trading emotions.
Getting there but temptation still strikes me and leads me astray especially when my mind is idle on slow days!!
Best wishes
Dean
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 63
Registered: 01-2003Rating: 
Votes: 2
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| | Sunday, January 11, 2004 - 07:15 am: |
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Tossed around a bit last night so got up early and have been fiddling with PC for an hour or two and so I thought I would throw this info into the ring. I use TA with some background FA for stock filtering and am a medium/long term active investor using a Weinstein like process. Also use Stockdoctor for FA piece of process (I dont have any interest in Stockdoctor other than as a user).
So, I decided to look at some returns using only FA but with only one TA provision that stock is not in long term downtrend at buy time.
Using Stockdoctor starstock list, about 90 stocks, i.e. stocks with good balance sheet. Then filtered to produce stocks with earnings growth > 10% over 2 year period and PEG < 0.8 . Sorted to find 20 stocks with best EPS growth and looked at results.
1. 12 month average share price growth 52.47% (add dividends of 3.7% - total 56.17%. Only one dud COH. All Ords +11.08%.
2. Returns over 3 years from 1 Jan 2001 to 31 Dec 2003 (Price change over period not compounded) 191% excluding dividends. All Ords +4.8%.
Costs, negligible i.e. brokerage. Time to manage, about an hour every month or so. Are there people out there beating this with TA, yes I am sure there are but are there people out there not doing this well in spite of thrashing around in front of PC with TA (like me) I suspect there are lots....
And by the way these are all quality companies so risk by market standards is extremely low.
Tony_M
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 178
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 11, 2004 - 09:12 am: |
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Tony, your results would make all portfolio managers green with jealousy - especially, since it seems that the portfolio has a relatively low risk profile.
I'm interested in your above methodology, and I'm not sure if I've understood you correctly, so can you please advise if the following is how you would go about the process ...
Methodology
It is December 2000 and you are ready to create a portfolio of stocks so you
1. Use Stockdoctor to identify stocks with a good balance sheet, and 90 such stocks are found
2. Use Stockdoctor to identify which of these 90 stocks meet your earnings growth criteria and pick 20 stocks from the shortlist that have the best EPS growth results and invest in January 2001.
I've never used Stockdoctor but it would seem to me that it produces "objective" results - i.e. you, I, or any forum member should get the same 90 stocks if we use the same filtering criteria.
So, the only subjective element would be in how we viewed a stock's trend in December 2000. At what stage do you do the TA filtering to eliminate stocks in a longterm downtrend - is it before you fire up Stockdoctor or after you've done some FA filtering?
As an ex-value investor, I'm excited by the simplicity of your methodology.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Dean
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rhen
Member
Username: rhen
Post Number: 85
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 11, 2004 - 11:53 am: |
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G'day Tony, Dean and fellow Forum members,
Good post Tony.
As a user of Stockdoctor 7.4 myself, I have considered (over the last week) using golden and emerging golden starstocks - consistently healthy (60 stocks). You may have used recovery stocks as well??
For medium to long term investors requiring much less risk, one may then apply TA to the subsequent 60 companies. (I still leave room for a speccy or two). I just wish I had this method at the start of my investing!!
I think one has to be careful with the figures. Just look at the managed funds to see how well their figures can be manipulated.
By the way, I believe that many (most?) SD clients use a similar method (in principle)
I am but a client of Lincoln Indicators.
regards
rhen
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 123
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 02, 2004 - 11:11 pm: |
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Using Stockdoctor starstock list, about 90 stocks
Are they star stocks now, or were they star stocks when they were "bought" a year ago?
Stevo
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 70
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 03, 2004 - 08:52 am: |
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Stevo, they vary, looking at the top 14 or 15 in annual returns now, they vary, some were already starstocks a year ago, some came in early in the year following the December 03 reporting period and a few after the mid year reporting period. I could do the exercise projecting forward from the starstocks a year ago but it is messy because there is no way of filtering them in retrospect, it would have to be done manually by looking up the detail stock by stock.
I did this exercise to demonstrate the intrinsic link between key stock fundamentals, particularly earnings growth and return on assets/growth and stock prices. In saying that, market and sector sentiment is still a key factor so I certainly dont buy stocks just on fundamentals, TA and price action are still the ultimate test.
The fundamental filtering provided by Stockdoctor serves two purposes for me. One is to provide me with a level of stock risk assessment, the second is the fact that the Starstocks over the long haul outperform the market and I believe they provide me with a statistical edge as a selection pool for TA.
Tony_M
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