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     i_claudius
Member
Username: i_claudius
Post Number: 1365
Registered: 11-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, February 22, 2004 - 11:37 am: |  
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Quotation :-
"Technical analysis is a very powerful tool and is a prerequisite for anyone who wants to predict financial market movements."
Source :-
http://www.marketvolume.com/content/chart_school/tutorial/volume_signals.asp
Roger (Executor of the Claudius Literary Estate)
QUOTATION :- "Never stop questioning" ... Posted by Bundy in the Options and Derivatives Forum on Friday, 16 January, 2004 - 21:40
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andrewk
Member
Username: andrewk
Post Number: 116
Registered: 09-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, February 23, 2004 - 08:11 am: |
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How about a looser definition of "predictive".
If you consistently (ie, over a long term) make money with it, then it is predictive. If you consistently break even, but have your money slowly eroded by brokerage, then it is not predictive. If you lose money over the long term, then you are doing something wrong.
"We are generally the better persuaded by the reasons we discover ourselves than by those given to us by others." - Blaise Pascal
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scarrie
Member
Username: scarrie
Post Number: 105
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 23, 2004 - 02:37 pm: |
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February 22nd, 2004
"What Color is Your Thread?"
In This Issue:
I. Market Commentary
II. Charts
---- QQQ (Nasdaq 100)
This is the Hot Stix FREE weekly. To get our daily analysis and all of our profitable stocks picks, click here to subscribe.
I. Market Commentary
The QQQ dipped through the 50 Day Moving Average on Friday, but managed to rally back to close just above this important support level.
Will it bounce and give us another uptrend leg, or will it fail and start a more significant pullback?
We cannot predict, we can only act upon the events as they unfold.
If it fails, go or stay short. If it rallies, cover and go long.
II. Market Charts
Hot Stix' approach to technical analysis is a simple, but powerful strategy. We buy stocks which demonstrate the potential for explosive gains, while maintaining a highly disciplined exit strategy to manage risk.
THIS IS A FREE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER THAT I GET. THE BOTTOM PORTION OF IT I HAVE DELETED SO THAT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE I'M TRYING TO ADVERTISE ANYTHING.
MAKE OF IT WHAT YOU WILL.
DAVE
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stevo
Member
Username: stevo
Post Number: 124
Registered: 01-2003Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, February 23, 2004 - 03:56 pm: |
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If I can predict market direction 50% of the time, or less, I can make money. So why worry about whether TA "predicts" the future?
Is it not more important to know when to take the decision to hold or to sell? I know that I can (and do) make good money in the market, but it has nothing to do with predicting the future. It has more to do with knowing when to hold them and when to fold them, and how much to put on the table. Obviously some strategies are better than others.
Stevo
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scarrie
Member
Username: scarrie
Post Number: 106
Registered: 08-2003Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, February 23, 2004 - 05:41 pm: |
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www.pring.com/glossaryt.htm
www.esignal.com/education/likepro/default.asp
www.pristine.com/lesson/past/lotw04_0211.htm
www.pristine.com/weeklychart/past/wc04_0209.htm
www.surefirething.com/day-trading-definitions.html
www.travismorien.com/FAQ/main.htm
(go to Trading in top menu bar, then check out The Purpose of This Trading FAQ, Trend Trading, Indicators, Trading vs Forecasting)
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jakar
Member
Username: jakar
Post Number: 3
Registered: 03-2003Rating: 
Votes: 6
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| | Tuesday, February 24, 2004 - 09:52 am: |
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Spider mentioned in another post
"Don't just sit there with your trench coat on and your hat pulled down over your eyes!" I felt a twang of guilt.
This debate has been going on for quite a while and it has formed complete circles several times. From my own experience the essence of trading is designing a system that works for YOU! Each individual is different in thought processes, weaknesses, strengths and needs to fulfil these. Trading can satisfy these needs but the experience is individual.
Personally, I am very much indebted to snifter, not because the information he provides is the Holy Grail or because he is a better trader than the next person. Simply because I can identify with the information he provides. This information has made me a better trader, for me this is from two prospectives, I enjoy the challenge of trading in my own mind more successfully and my wallet is fuller 
Onto the debate. I believe it is possible to trade without predicting, personally. But it is also possible to trade with prediction. It comes down to the individuals needs and interpretations. These cannot be swayed or combatted on a forum as they are inherently individual, there are many ways to fry an egg.
I will give an example and it must be noted this is only my interpretation which many may "feel" is wrong.
Between the 26th December and 13 January we see the price for AXP on a daily perspective was rangebound, according to my interpretation.
I also see that past price movement had turned my selected MA's positive. This is in no way indicative of what will occur in the future.
Now what do I do with this trade. My own analysis would be that if I was to purchase while inside the range I would be predicting that the price would continue up.
That is not how I trade this. I would trade it purely on price action, using stop Order.
If the price continues up buy,
else
do nothing.
The very nature of the "IF" statement is not predictive, it is reactionary. (Im a programmer)
EG: If the price hits 49.02 buy X units. The price must continue up in order for this to be filled. I have not needed to predict the price. I also set my stoploss as a IF Done order.
This for me was a live trade and as you can see it is still an ongoing successful trade. Money management keeps me in the trade profitably.
To conclude, It was equally possible for me to purchase this stock while it was still in "my" determined range. In this case the person who predicted would have higher profit than the person who reacted. Therefore there is merit to both scenarios. I just choose to react rather than predict.
The reason I posted this is because I can see the quality of some very valuable posters diminishing. There are very few sites with the richness of knowledge and consideration. It would be a shame due to individuals characteristics that makes them believe a certain ideal if the enriching posts didnt continue.
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fox_terrier
Member
Username: fox_terrier
Post Number: 109
Registered: 10-2003Rating:
Votes: 6
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| | Tuesday, February 24, 2004 - 11:07 am: |
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Well put Jakar, and so say all of us.
I have nothing personal against any forum member but i have been involved in many human interaction experiences that go from sweet to sour. This is what i have seen happen on this forum in the last few months.
I fully understand Roger's argument and he would appear to be a very intelligent person who has lived long(in no way derogative), read well and absorbed a lot. I have met Snifter and he is all of the above though perhaps not as eloquent a writer (compared to Roger),(i know eloquent refers to speech but some of Roger's posts deserve this adjective).
However as you can see from Jakar's post,an equally good argument can be made for Snifter's case. Personally i believe no one on this forum to date has argued Snifter's case as well as Jakar has in the above post.
Please gentlemen agree to disagree and move on.Roger (non protagonistically)this may mean not putting in a post in reply to a Snifter post in an unrelated thread where he may mention prediction (or whatever) just to evoke a response.
Fox_terrier
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