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     deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 276
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 01:58 pm: |  
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Just passing the time today so how's this for a hypothetical...
The 1-year AMC daily OHLC chart up to yesterday, 20-04-04, is depicted below.
Prior to the opening bell, today, AMC's management release price-sensitive information to the market that states, amongst other things, that profit for the nine months to 31 March, 2004, was UP SIX PERCENT on the same period last year, and this amount could have been more if it weren't for the weakening of the USD against the AUD.
So ... at 10:00 a.m.
(a) Do fundamental analysts anticipate the price of the stock to rise/fall?
(b) Do technical analysts anticipate the price of the stock to rise/fall?
Got to love the markets for making a mockery of any analysis other than hindsight analysis, I reckon.
Dean
PS: For those without access to data at the moment, AMC opened at 7.64 and dropped as low as 7.29 mid-morning. Currently at 7.32 and, if I were a betting man, I'd expect a further fall this afternoon!! (But, of course it could bounce back, too!!)
(Message edited by deanrosario on April 21, 2004)
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new2waix
Member
Username: new2waix
Post Number: 722
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 02:31 pm: |
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Hey Dean,
I've been watching AMC for the last few weeks and was contemplating going short a few days ago. As usual I forgot about it and down she goes!!
I do love the irony of it all, post good news and get punished:
21/04/2004 9:37AM ! 6% increase in profit for the nine months to 31/03/04
Price crashes down to a low of 7.29 and is hovering around 7.30.
Quite clearly the moral of the story is for companies to announce bad news to increase their share price. It worked for AMP (re: billion dollar loss) 
Uh, got to laugh at these things...
Cheers,
n2w
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 277
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 02:36 pm: |
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Hey n2w
Yes the market brings us all back to earth, just as the trading ego starts to inflate and send us to dizzy heights!
Just out of interest, on what date did you plan on shorting AMC and on what trigger?
Dean
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 53
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 02:51 pm: |
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Hey Dean !!!
Did you faint with excitement when you saw John Howard?
On AMC ... if the news is good wouldn't you expect your white line to see through the noise and point out a future direction ... in the absence of any general market downturn or sudden adverse revelations by the company that are contrary to its current guidance?
I neither hold AMC, nor want to right now, but when a moving average points north ... why not believe it?
Of course I understand your short trading focus .. but for long sighted kind hearted little friars is the trend not my friend?
Does the chart not tell all?
With Best Wishes
Hilarius (still excited by the brush with fame, John Ralph, Ziggy and Little Johnnie .. I am amazed it hasn't gone to your head!)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 278
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 03:01 pm: |
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Hilarius - to be honest, I felt quite ill being in the same establishment as Little Johnnie - and, I'd get the same feeling if I were next to Blair or Bush, too!
In relation to AMC - it hasn't been on my trading list for a while, however, I'm sure its volatility in the near term will put it firmly on my list. It is now well below the 50 SMA so I'd only be looking for short entries - maybe a dead cat bounce and then .... CARNAGE???
Dean
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cjb
Member
Username: cjb
Post Number: 32
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 03:05 pm: |
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Hi Dean,
My guess is that "The Market" was expecting something better and had already factored that into the price. Even those fundamentalists out there trying to predict growth get it wrong. When I was working for a public company during the .com boom we did see some odd things relating to announcements and price changes. Often if you say nothing and let the market guess during a bull run they often think it is something positive and push the price up for no real reason (Also the brokers get out there and talk up a stock). Back then we released bad news and the stock went up, good news and it went down and I can even remember one time when the directors had a margin call on their options and price went up for just 2 days then collapsed. You just never know what is going on.
CB
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 279
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 03:13 pm: |
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Hey Chris - good to hear from yet another alumnus of the Old School!!!
You are spot on in your assessment.
Which is why I've stopped paying attention to brokers and analysts. If I'm going to lose money I want to just blame myself!
Hope all is well with you.
Dean
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new2waix
Member
Username: new2waix
Post Number: 723
Registered: 10-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 04:33 pm: |
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Dean,
"Just out of interest, on what date did you plan on shorting AMC and on what trigger?"
My thinking for going short with AMC was based on:
-- AMC has been ranging for 2 years between $8 and $9
-- Moving average in decline
-- Since November hasn't looked flash
-- Hasn't looked like repeating pattern of last 2 years
-- Broke support, but recovered
-- Failed to sustain recovery
Entry would of been on the failed recovery, and anywhere from that point. However, being overly conservative, I would of waited for a move below 7.85, or at least for a clear (short term) downtrend to emerge. The last few days have been flat, so I would of had second thoughts.
I was also waiting for a lazy blind freddie to emerge. I was contemplating going long, but then when it failed, was waiting for clear move up/down.
Looks so easy in hindsight! Now to see what the market does tomorrow. AMC may present new opportunities once the market digests this recent announcement.
Another one for the scrap book of 'should of'.....
*hmpf*
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iwillwin
Member
Username: iwillwin
Post Number: 38
Registered: 10-2004Rating: 
Votes: 4
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| | Sunday, November 21, 2004 - 02:49 am: |
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Hi
analysis does work, for me that is! and i only use technical analysis, so far it is doing me well!!
i suppose when it starts f'ing me over then i will need to revert to some other analysis!!
'till then, let the $ roll in!!
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shelton
Member
Username: shelton
Post Number: 28
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 11, 2005 - 07:36 pm: |
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iwillwin
Is the money still rolling in? - or should we call you - Iamlosing
Regards
Shelton.
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