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dug

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Post Number: 44
Registered: 07-2005

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Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 12:39 pm:

Not discourses on computer generated convulusions.The DMI may be an answer but it still lags.

1)Angles of Trend Lines.
I thought these were 'Best' between 45-60 degrees.
Higher and it whiffed of despiciable Speculative Frenzy.
Lower and it was dying in the 'Posterior'.

I note no button on my Programmed Chart Drawing Machine for angles.
Do they still write books on angles?or has such an easy for the eye indicator been dismissed,disparaged as 'Amateur'?

2)Vertical Trend Lines are airy fairy,just float there,compared to Horizontal Support/Resistance.

I'm noticing a lot of Range Bound Trades.From about Febuary.it's channels,price tight 10/15%.They're messy.
They breech the base and comeback,they breakout,stop.
Well I hope you've seen it too and can give some indicators to use or Better ones NOT to use.

Example-ST MA's naturally cross and whipsaw during Consol Stage.I wonder if as this started in Feb that action around the 120day MA is significant of a Break Out?
You're using the MA from when the channel activity started.
The 180 day of course is monitoring trading days from Nov04[because there is 20 trading days in a calendar month]
So it's not right/correct/proper to have your MA's skewed by the different Market NOW compared to the 'hey/hay days'running up to Xmas 04,right?

3)Twiggs Money Flow.Is it best indicating when it comes from below and cracks Nought?That happening on a breakout is good bordering excellent,right?

I've other points but I haven't thought them concrete yet.

Angles/Lines/Money Flow.
Opinions?

Dig for it.

ann

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Post Number: 585
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 02:34 pm:

Hi Shane

The ability to assess the degree of a trend line would be very interesting. I have read those figures about the ideal degree for a trend line to follow. I did try at one stage to look at that manually, but something else at the time caught my attention. I have noticed a couple of contributors have Degree marks on their charts. I think it may be Smallworld but I am not sure.

Although a trend's line would change its degree depending on the time frame, wouldn't it? Or am I wrong in that thinking?

Just looking at those good, long term trending stocks, they appear to follow that 45-60 degree slope.

Cheers
Ann

dug

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Post Number: 46
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 03:44 pm:

Hi ann,
Thanks for the comments.Time shouldn't break say a 45 degree.
Action might sharpen the angle over time for a 45 return but a falling off down to say 30?
not a good indicator,I thought.Especially if it falls into Ranging.
In some Quarters,Ranging is seen as Distribution before it goes DOWN.
Don't want to be caught in preparations for going down,do ya billie-ann?

ps-hoping david louisson may comment.

Dig for it.

holycow

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Post Number: 1509
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 04:28 pm:

Shane,

Edwards and Magee emphasised quite a fair bit on the degree of slope to indicate trend strength. For longer period, they reckoned semi-log chart is more superior since the scale is "normalised".

Generally a 30-45 degree slope is considered more sustainable while those that exceed 60 degree or more are considered as late stage rally towards a blow off and are less likely to maintain their momentum (not sure if the last bit is their view or mine, sorry).

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dug

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Post Number: 47
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 05:28 pm:

Thanks Holy Cow,
On Log charts is there somewhere in a trend when they're preferable?
Like is it used with time?Reading a trend over a number of years?
Or is it[log charts] brought in when a price percentage increase/decrease from a point in time has occured?Say 2 years ago it was X and now it's 2X ?
hope you understand the question.I'm not wanting to get tied up in Long Term 5 years trend reading.I see the reasons for going back in time to get an overview of what's happening,where there's Sup/Res for example.I just wish to tune my Chart Drawing,up to Speed,as they say.

regard,
S

Dig for it.

holycow

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Post Number: 1513
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 06:13 pm:

Shane,

1) On Log charts is there somewhere in a trend when they're preferable? - very discretional for me here. Log chart is scaled %ly, hence if the particular stock I am looking at is more reactive/responsive to its financial data, stocks like banks for eg, I like to go over them with both scales just to make sure the chart "makes sense" to me.

2) with weekly chart for long term outlook I prefer log chart to gauge how strong/weak (read: gradient) the sp has been rising/falling; however if a stock has a great price range over a long period of time, log chart tends to squeeze the scale so much that it doesn't give me a "sense" of proportion, then I will switch back to normal scale. I think intuitively I am trying to decipher the psychological factors/herd thinking behind each chart, which is highly subjective.

3) the last part of your question depends on the "time frame" of your trade - but regardless I make it a habit to go through the weekly/daily charts just to get a background feel if the stock is new to me.

Weekly chart is important even if you are trading short term because the weekly volume reveals much more than a daily chart. To me, this is one of the "keys" to gauge the strength of a rally or sell off.

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

perler59

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Post Number: 683
Registered: 09-2003

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 07:45 pm:

Hey guys. Angles on charts are meaningless since the scaling is done automatically by the computer to fit the action on the screen. What is meaningful is the % change per time period. E.G UGL has been rising at about 8% per month.

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

dug

Member

Post Number: 49
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 07:58 pm:

Hi Perler,
Yes,I've heard that.Computers being 'spoilers' of hand drawn oblong charts on Paper with pen and ruler and pro tractor[or something]
I haven't read your link yet,but does it say there that therefore all 'vertical' computer generated trend lines are 'frauds',like irrelevant?
Why weren't we TOLD,perler?
Lucky for Colin I'm on Free Data!!

Dig for it.

david_louisson

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Post Number: 114
Registered: 02-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 08:14 pm:

Folks

At the risk of making myself highly unpopular, doesn't the slope of a trendline simply depend on the way in which the vertical and horizontal axes of the chart are scaled relative to each other?

The following 3 charts show exactly the same trendline drawn through the same stock.
Chart #2 is simply chart #1 with a compressed x-axis.
Chart #3 is simply chart #1 with a rescaled y-axis.

Note how changes in the scaling radically affect the slope of the trendline.
(We could complicate this further by switching from a linear to a log scale.)

Or am I missing something?

Humbly,
David

Chart #1:

ex1

Chart #2:

Chart #3:

Stop Press: Looks like my post has crossed with Perler's, but I'll go through with it anyway.

ann

Member

Post Number: 589
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, July 28, 2005 - 09:02 pm:

Hi David

That's what I thought but couldn't express it correctly.

I have noticed that log quite changes the outcome to lin.

Cheers
Ann aka Billie

holycow

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Post Number: 1514
Registered: 08-2004

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Friday, July 29, 2005 - 08:30 am:

Hmmm,

I might be wrong here.

This is how I use the technique - I use a couple of long term/weekly templates to eyeball my scanned/selected stocks on a daily basis. These templates are given different "fixed" time frame so I can gauge if a stock has been "running alright", ie, not mvoing too "vertically". I don't actually draw the trend line but just done this through visual inspection.

I don't change the time interval of these templates so the software can't adjust the data automatically (not really since semi-log scale is "adjusted") giving me inconsistent reading. Over a period of time, I kind of getting a feel for certain stocks that come on my scan list. I switch over to daily chart to zoom into a particular stock if I find there's something of interest.

This is what I do everyday, but I could be wrong.

You can try this - check out with log scale on MBL over say the last 5 or 6 years - you can see there're three phases of the stock's rally: from 03-04 a gentle 30 deg slope, from mid04-early05 about 45deg slope (sp rise is accelerating), and the last phase from May5-present, about 60 or more (rising towards a blow off, I think).

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dug

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Post Number: 50
Registered: 07-2005

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Friday, July 29, 2005 - 08:34 am:

Hi David,
I think angle theory was for paper charts set by fixed printed available graph paper.
As holy cow confirmed it's basic tenet is 45/60 degrees is 'acceptable',outside that is a 'concern'.
Your three charts up there ,David what's their angle?
Regardless of one being closer to 30 than 45,wouldn't you re-orientate to 45 IF you wanted to apply 'angle theory'?

Surely if the 'ACTION' moved within any one of them,you wouldn't change axis orientation to another version to accomodate it,right?
I'm trying to firm up the Basics,David.Hope you'll continue to comment.
regards.

ps-still haven't read perler's article,but i will.

Dig for it.

longshanks

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Post Number: 145
Registered: 11-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, July 29, 2005 - 09:39 am:

HC

Very sorry...it's still kind of early over here...but could you run your post by me one more time...

These templates are given different "fixed" time frames

Fixed as in "2 years", so the start date will advance each day, or fixed as in 01/01/03, and it stays that way, adding a day to the chart each day?

Many thanks

longshanks

perler59

Member

Post Number: 684
Registered: 09-2003