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     shelton
Member
Username: shelton
Post Number: 27
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 11, 2005 - 07:27 pm: |  
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LOL - 2% fall today - anyone saw it on their "charts".
Regards
Shelton.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 707
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 11, 2005 - 07:57 pm: |
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Shelton. The chart gives many hints. Failure to recover after the dividend in March. Recent high on 27/July was lower than 15/June. After the daily downtrend bottomed on 5/August the recovery failed and the downtrend resumed two days later with price closing below the 200 day SMA. Oh, and the money flow was looking a bit sick too.
All these things were saying DON'T BY ME!
Of course its much easier to notice these things after the event 
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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macka
Member
Username: macka
Post Number: 131
Registered: 10-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Thursday, August 11, 2005 - 08:14 pm: |
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Shelton
I certainly never saw 2% coming although the charts were heading downwards since a recent high of $5.17 on July 27th. But there have been so many TA and FA negatives around this stock that it is hard to understand why anybody would be holding it.
* Telstra used to be have a monopoly on it's products and services. But with subsequent deregulations it is now attacked on all sides by nimble, agile opposition, and will battle to maintain sales and profits.
* Companies of the size of Telstra generally have trouble growing profitable sales. Several attempts via Asian joint ventures and acquisitions have proved unsuccessful.
* Since the original sale of shares they have fallen from levels around nine dollars to struggling to hold at five dollars. This while other strong stocks have gone up by hundreds of percents.
* The Government's intended sale will double the number of shares in the market. Economics 101 tells you what happens to the value of anything when you double the supply.
* When the sale goes through it is the Government's intention to tie Telstra's hands behind it's back with obligations not required by it's opposition companies. Namely regional area services.
All things considered as more people have a close look at Telstra as an investment a 2% drop may turn out to be very conservative.
Regards....macka...
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davkell
Member
Username: davkell
Post Number: 186
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 12, 2005 - 03:53 pm: |
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Well, what's 2% really in the scheme of things? Charting or not... it's Telstra. Until it becomes a 100% public company and not owned/controlled by the government, the big institutions and overseas players won't put a penny into it. When the sale goes through, you watch the profits and the share price jump. I'd predict $10 within 18months to 2years after the sale.
Cheers.
"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 732
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 12, 2005 - 04:41 pm: |
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But, Davekell, that's the issue ...
Maybe, the market is starting to factor in the real possibility that Barnaby Joyce will vote on behalf of his constituents, rather than the Liberal Party, and there is no sale.
What's your price prediction then?
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros
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davkell
Member
Username: davkell
Post Number: 187
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, August 12, 2005 - 04:59 pm: |
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Same same! $4.50 to $5.50!!!!
Also, what percentage of the Australian population voted Barnaby Joyce in anyway! The Liberal government was voted in by the majority of Australian voters, so why can one person dictate policy?
"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 734
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 13, 2005 - 12:06 am: |
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Davekell, Barnaby Joyce is a NATIONAL PARTY senator.
The question, for me, is to whom does he owe allegiance
1. the people who voted for him OR
2. the Liberal/National party policy makers?
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 121
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, August 13, 2005 - 08:44 am: |
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Topic Tangent[but there is still General for Telstra]
The Nats in Qld. are the bigger,stronger Party.It's Joh legacy,and the decentralised State.Here they are striving to unite with the Libs,form one party with the Nationals as dominate party/philosophy.
That is the Queensland Angle,it is the basis for Barnaby support and IMO,Barnie is flying that flag above any national 'interest',it's his agenda to publicise the Qld Nats as the party of the People at least those people who go to church,have family values,dadadadee.
Like Barnie and his ilk would be real interested in 'Chucking'in with the computer 'secret agent',I see proposed for here now.
Yeah,Paranoia RULES!!
Lines are Blurred.
every long time Brizzo/Qld resident knows All 'bout it.
Don't you Worry?
regards.
Dig for it.
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mrbrown66
Member
Username: mrbrown66
Post Number: 2
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 09, 2005 - 01:53 am: |
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/Rant on
Why are Australians being encouraged to buy back shares in a company which has been built with the taxes from generations of Australians! Its an outrage! Every Australian should be getting a free allocation of shares.
And it doesnt make a lot of business sense to invest in TLS either. You only have to look at British Telecom to see the future of the Telstra share price.
All in all I cant wait for the Australian government to be done with it, then finally services cant start improving, prices come down and competitors can tear their monopoly to shreds, just as its happened in the UK.
Unlimited 2mbit uncapped ADSL for <$50? Yes please.
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 270
Registered: 06-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 07:06 pm: |
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"Who saw it coming" - well that depends on your timeframe and the chart you were looking at.
Here is a long term (Weekly) RELATIVE STRENGTH chart of TLS vs XJO
Apologies for the scale (because TLS is a chunk of the index) - but basically if a stock is outperforming XJO it would be above the horizontal blue line (0.000000), and ideally its MAs of Relative Strength would be rising.
In the above chart the Red line is TLS vs XJO (Relative Strength Comparative). The Green line is the 26 Wk EMA of Relative Strength Comparative and the blue line 12 Wk EMA
It would have been hard for me to justify holding TLS after June 1999. RSC topped, EMAs (of RSC) crossed in Dec 1999 suggesting that there were other better places to put your money.
Since DEC 1999 its been a downhill ride on the Relative Strength view. So, if you held TLS, maybe because it was "Safe" or a good yield (No it wasnt - but getting better daily!!) or for some other reason?
Nope, I didnt see it coming - coz I wasnt looking, since its Relative Strength was so bad.
However if I was in TLS, and therefore watching closely, a weekly chart does give stong indications of weakness:
Falling trendline (peaks).
LONG upper shadows on the down candles - indicating that the stock ran up but failed to hold (weakness)
Two down candles (marked by dotted lines), the first breached the 15WK EMA and the second breached the 30WK EMA - and caused the MAs to roll over.
To my untrained eye - there was about 5 weeks notice of pretty severe weakness, long before the big down candle of 12/8
Just the view of a traveller to these parts that occasionally looks at TLS and wonders "why bother" (for my timeframes)
Muzza
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 1511
Registered: 01-2003Rating: 
Votes: 2
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| | Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 11:50 pm: |
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Yep, who saw it coming?
People who can look at directions of a chart? Gee send me to Uni anyone so I can really be stupid.
Um which way is TLS going, Help, I need direction!!!
Gee, I thought It was UP
.....
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 1523
Registered: 01-2003Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, September 19, 2005 - 11:37 pm: |
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I apologise for scaring you off of your discussion, I was only trying to point out the chart.
I think if you look at the chart now you could find that it's an opportunity to short in the next few days, Always have Your patterns, Stick with your plan, Pray to the gods and drink lots on Sunday.
Seems to work for Moi'
Anyway feel free to continue I won't speak again, on this thread I Promise!
Who love's me .... 
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 1528
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 28, 2005 - 10:19 pm: |
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I do hope someone else made some money on the short,
I know I said I wouldn't speak again but it has gone so cold in this room and I just plain Hate the fact that my name is up on the forum main area all of the time.
Please look at an opportunity to go long now the *hit has hit the fan.
Wait for it don't rush, it's all about getting a feel for a stock.
Good Luck Julles
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ingot54
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