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     hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1810
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 20, 2006 - 05:32 pm: |  
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Good Afternoon
According to my information the following stocks provided significant increases between the end of April and 5pm Friday 19th May
What technical indicators were in place at the end of April to indicate that these stocks would resist the general market downturn?
Did any rise because of a capital reconstruction?
AMU
ARQ
AWE
CLH
CUE
EQI
GGN
IWF
JBH
JST
OGD
PNA
PSA
PSV
ROC
SAI
SEK
SFC
SIG
SLX
TOL
VGL
What do technical indicators say about these now?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1811
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 20, 2006 - 05:37 pm: |
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Re the first stock listed ...
Would you buy, sell short, or continue to hold if you already owned it?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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pancho
Member
Username: pancho
Post Number: 36
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 20, 2006 - 09:22 pm: |
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Hi hilarius,re amu the next time the slow stochastic starts showing signs of turning down i would sell,macd has turned,directional movement is starting to turn.money flow same .my advice wait for someone smarter then me
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 1709
Registered: 01-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 21, 2006 - 01:03 am: |
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Hi H'
Fair price value is $1.25, I particularly like the rising triangle at the bottom of a pole so to speak. But I'd have to say this stock is with all of it's investors and traders, thinking about going down.
I'd be looking for solid support at $1.18
My thought's of course! Forgive me Father for I know not what I do.
luv ya Julles
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1821
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 21, 2006 - 02:55 pm: |
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Hilarius,
I have JST and OST in my portfolio and FA wise, regard them as stars because in an adverse market their profit were up considerably.The Bollinger Bands of JST were tighten and at $3.14 I bought more for a short term trade.I also bought more of OST at $3.84 , support and resistance level, also a short term trade. Still holding them in my long term portfolio.Will post charts when I am back in Sydney.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 654
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 22, 2006 - 01:46 pm: |
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Hilarius,
I had a look at the stock list on weekly charts. With a couple of exceptions most have been hammered as much as anything else over the last couple of weeks. In quite a few cases the reasons that they appear to be better off is that they had a large jump up in the 1st and or 2nd week in May which tended to be larger than the following downturn, but they were hammered just the same.
I dont think that there is anything much that will predict the reaction to individual stocks in such a selloff. Obviously commodity based stocks were going to get the biggest hiding (I have the scars to prove it) but the selloff was market wide with a very few exceptions.
Like everyone else I knew the day of reckoning was afoot but decided as a longer term trader to stay in anyway on the basis that if I had bailed out every time I became nervous or believed the hype in the past I would be a lot poorer than I am now. I did reduce my heavy exposure to resources but still had an exposure and it was painful.
My view is that there will be some stocks that will come out of this correction (?), or even if it is a reversal, that can still make money for long traders/investors which will become progressively more obvious as the blood letting wanes. I expect my portfolio to evolve over time and it is happening already with stocks like WOR and SLX.
It takes a while for the mopping up to complete before the stayers can emerge. As far as predicting the good guys in the runup to the selloff, there are so many variables in the profile of every stock that the outcome has to be essentially random.
I thought that some holdings in the banks might be somewhat lower risk, but look at ANZ, dropped like a stone in a couple of days.
Regards Tony
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1824
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 22, 2006 - 04:55 pm: |
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tony m
The market has taken a beating, with the resources at the fore.What do we do with a market like that?Do we liquidate our good stock that is still in the money and pay more tax or just hold on to the winning, knowing that it is the correction we have to have.
I remembered the same thing happened last year and I sold off CPU at about $5.50 meaning to buy back again, but never got to do it.I missed out on the recent rises.This year I am determined not to make the same mistakes, so I am holding on a bit longer.Any cut losses situation presented would be attended to immediately to offset against the capital gain.It is agonising to see the profit eroded and the question is at what percentage to budget for in anticipation of the reduction in the profit. It is an area I am still grappling with.
I have maintained my long term holding in OST and JST but trying to trade the marginal side short term on these as well.My requirements are low and only trading very short term as in a few days the longest.
Chart of JST and OST.
Note: I put in an order to buy OST at $3.70 after seeing it dropped 39c in front of my eyes to recover just as quickly, probably due to some stop loss selling during the day.Never revisited that area again later, so I had the order cancelled at the close.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 655
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 22, 2006 - 08:37 pm: |
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Peter,
I agonised over this and after having bailed well before this in previous 'corrections' I decided to stay in albeit with some reduction in more risky 2nd tier resources like ZFX and PDN and I am glad I did even though I was hurt by BHP but it was a pinprick compared with the next tier. Got it wrong this time.
I did not expect the precious metals to go south as much as they did and this was particularly painful. I had this fanciful view that precious metals being a safe haven would have held up much better than they have but then they were also overheated.
So I am still in but somewhat more cashed up with the only major concern right now being energy stocks. BPT has been sold down again in spite of really positive news about a major high production field being confirmed today and already in production.
I cant really figure this out with stocks like WPL being hammered in spite of still being highly profitable even at the lower oil prices and their main game as a major gas supplier with substantial long term contracts locked in and obviously being being totally ignored.
SLX came out with final confirmation of completed contract negotiations, opened up 14% and was then sold down all day.
It shows how much sentiment has been crunched this time...Regards Tony
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 508
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 22, 2006 - 09:30 pm: |
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Hi All
The suck at the peak of the boom,(which could start again tomorrow, who knows) would have pulled people from the street to throw money at gold and stocks.
Those entering late would be wishing they never heard of the stockmarket,cfd's,newsletters,and the rest of it.
The PL's and the TM's will survive this without blinking an eye but when considering the knowledge,plans,rearch and experience of these guys, spare a thought for the punters who probably dropped a large portion of their savings in the last week or so.
Tony M, i thought the volatility would have had you on the sidelines using ATR stops.
The gslo on cfd's is probably the safest way to trade in the stockmarket because the normal stop loss provided by internet brokers etc is virtually useless, gets you out on a raid and gaps through on a serious correction,just when it is really needed. JMV
Would volatility exits have worked ?
Ken had a back tested tested percentage fall in the index of 2.5% ?(check that figure) to exit i think which would have worked really well here.
Stevo had his atr nizantight at the top so probably in a lot of cash.
Mosaic had is shorts on, ( those white legs !!!)
Archer predicted all this before it happened as usual.
The skippa, well he predicted it but stuck his hand in the honey jar just one too many times i think and got stung.
No offence anyone, just like to hear how the pro's manage these things so i have the knowledge to stay out next time when the crowd is rushing in. 
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 656
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 22, 2006 - 11:10 pm: |
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Mark,
My stops are ATR based but wider than most because that is the way my system works and it works both ways. Keeps me in long running trades and sometimes gets me out a bit later.
I have hit a few stops already and usually wait for a 2nd confirmation before bailing as I am now with WPL and ANZ. It isn't all bad news, some are doing ok like WOR and SLX and others like AMP and MRL have taken only relatively minor hits at this time.
No doubt I have taken a bath but at the same time I am way ahead over the long haul so that has to be balanced out. I am down to 9 stocks now from 14 and I expect to lose some more but by the look of things not too many unless we really go down the sink.
I dont like the feel of the comments coming out of the US tonight where it looks like they have been spooked by what has happened around the world over the last couple of trading days and tonight might not be good there, a bit ironic considering they triggered the mess. If we have a bad night then tomorrow could be worrisome here. There might have been a bounce here tomorrow but now I doubt it very much unless the US uncharacteristically bounces tonight.
However I see base metals are recovering as I write this so that could calm things down. I am not convinced that metals are really bouncing yet as there have been a number of bounces in the spot prices over the last week or two but they have been short lived.
One of the reasons that I have been careful in recent times about staying in liquid stocks is at least bailing wont be too difficult if it gets any worse.
Tony
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 382
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 22, 2006 - 11:11 pm: |
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Hello Msparks,
Yes the 2.5% XAO stop did work well. The exact value changes by which system its in, but 2% to 2.5% covers most of them.
I decided over the weekend (13-14 May) that my stop was likely to be hit on Monday, so I exited from the open on Monday 15th. I lost 7% from Friday 12 May close, but I have been tracking the stocks I held and I would be 23% down by now without any stops activated. It has surprised me - I thought today would not be so severe.
Ken
Trade with the trend, not against it.
The trend is the direction of the 22ema line (Elder)
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canam
Member
Username: canam
Post Number: 20
Registered: 05-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 23, 2006 - 12:43 pm: |
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I would consider that AMU is in a long term uptrend so that discounts any ideas of shorting. As for sell or hold, the answer to that is dependant on your trading rules, ie; what is your exit trigger? My impression is that that is the same with a number of other stocks mentioned in this thread.
The one common thing that appears to be emerging from comments though is that some people don't actually have a 'predetermined action' that verifies whether they hold or fold. Why that terminology? Because without having defined, for example, whether you use 1,3 or 5*ATR as your stop (or any other stop you are thinking of using) then you are essentially gambling are you not? What works really well at the moment may destroy you in another market phase. I don't trade on the basis that I feel the stock is running out of power or has one more burst of energy left to go, rather, that there is a red light and a green light and when "X" happens it is either buy or sell. Many times I have looked at it and started to question the validity of my (or the system I should say) decision but have done what I have been told to do and have had losing trades and winning trades. In the end, I did what I was told as I had confidence in my trading plan.
And just in case someone asks "So what do you use" - I have a trend follower that uses a 5*ATR stop, a shorter term that uses lowest low values and a reversal that is MOV based. Never do they cross over, a stock bought in one system never gets placed into another - it is what it is.
Cheers
Seth
Profits are the bi-product of your system - Following your system is the goal!!
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