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     kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 606
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 10, 2007 - 09:44 am: |  
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The devastation caused by Cyclone George got me thinking because one of the weather forecasters from the BOM said the degree of damage could be indicative of a Category 5.
Cyclones are seasonal as are El Nino/La Ninos, so cyclones aren't associated with El Ninos. They are however, associated with La Nino and the possibility of entering into a La Nino is increasing by the day.
This has obvious implications for our agricultural industries (and companies like ABB) but I wonder if it could be extrapolated elsewhere.
Could this have implications for the US this year - are they affected by the same weather patterns (albeit lagging)as ours? If so, there is the possibility that their hurricane season could be worse than usual and this may have some impact on the oil price.
Anybody know anything about weather patterns?
Kate
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 609
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 11, 2007 - 08:47 am: |
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I've done a load of reading and found out the US Atlantic coast is affected the same way as us. Their hurricane season doesn't occur until towards the middle of the year.
El Nino years reduce the severity of the hurricanes, La Ninos increase the severity. Hurricane Katrina occurred in an El Nino neutral year. If the La Nino pattern is confirmed Florida and Gulf of Mexico will (potentially) be in for a bad time.
NB Weather patterns work on probability not certainty, a bit like the share market!
This has short term implications for the oil price amongst other things, although I'd be steering away from companies which have rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=628&tstamp=20 0702
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wadda
Member
Username: wadda
Post Number: 448
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 11, 2007 - 08:59 am: |
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Kate,
you've probably already check the BOM website, but it is the Australian authoritative site on El Nino and La Nina.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
The other high quality site would be the NOAA website (US Govmt).
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html
Just in case your research hadn't already found them.
wadda
(Message edited by wadda on March 11, 2007)
(Message edited by wadda on March 11, 2007)
"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 610
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 11, 2007 - 09:35 am: |
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Thanks Wadda, I went into both sites, our BOM is up to date but I was more interested in the US and the NOAA is way behind the times. Good for background information but not much else, hence posting the site I did.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out in the next few months.
Kate
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