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     dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 682
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 02:30 pm: |  
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Holy Cow brought this up.
LNG is an "energy link" using previously discovered but non-commercial gas reserves to potential new energy markets.It will process,store and transport liquified natural gas.
It's in the Utility sector capitalised at $22mil with 47 mil shares on issue.
Coincidentally it's had a 48 mil turnover to December in shares so it's got to be a TRADER,hey?
Some basic views=
Chart suggests flag/retracement/some buy signal could flutter in coming days.
Support 40 c ish? I would anticipate that as a stt[short term trader] that previous buyers might "ditch" at <40c with 10-100[4 floatees]% gain.
50 cent resistance for reasons of .5 to 1c at 50 cents.Thats 3% a tick for nov/dec buyers,5% for d'Floatees at every over 50c increment/tick.
Specific view- under 40c on lowish volume i'd consider.Look for ride back to 49/50c to sell.
Am concerned that if the gas was uncommercial before,where are these 'new markets' to pay top $$ over the odds?
If the answer is China,I think they've never met a Chinese trader!!
Anyhow hc undoubtedly you're in at below 38c. How would you feel on a 37/40 retrace?Skittish?
Have a bip vs gif ipg ing problem for chart adjusting,so just see the offending logo as "Ironic"
Chance?a tip in computer probs thread?You're vbj/bqt nix helped me,sul one saved me though and chance
I wanna be SAVED!!
cheers,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 694
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 20, 2005 - 09:36 pm: |
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Dr,
To be frank I don't check for any fundamentals or number thingy for speccy like this. The punt is purely chart based and I am "supposedly" to be clever enough to gauge other punters' inclination in buying or selling this stock. For all it's worth I like the idea that this company is dealing with LNG, something which India is badly needed (not China).
Also I believe not too long ago the head honcho of some kind of India Energy Corp was in town looking up for long term gas deal - this provides a speculative driver as far as I am concerned. Another thing about this LNG is its newness where no one can fault them for quite a while even assuming they are going to screw up big time down the road.
Thirdly, I like the fact that its chart has formed a 3 months + base and has now breaking out (a little at a time) to the upside, it looks like it may have some oomph to go the distance.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 685
Registered: 03-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Friday, January 21, 2005 - 10:25 am: |
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HC,
The "Number Thingy" you refer to is IMHO what you can read from a Chart.Simply it indicates where and how many are the money makers.Who's going to sell and a hint of why.
Now i know the idea of selling at a profit is not suppose to arise til the 'trend bends' but the evidence suggests otherwise.People sell everyday,they sell into rises and falls and just staying steady.
Is this just the "Ignorant",HC? or perhaps just the arrogant who choose not to be chartists.I don't know but I like to be able to get a hint.
That's why how many at what price floating in the market is my 'number thing'.
Tack on a time factor,what i call the Boredom function and to my admittedly addled head,you're in business.
Holy Cow can you tell me why simple moving averages make more sense than expotential,in using the above system?
I'm time restrained today but I'll set out my argument in the main body of this thread later.
I assure you HC [and any others reading]I'm not reinventing the wheel just restoring an antique system for the modern world.
regards,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 704
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 21, 2005 - 02:24 pm: |
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Dr,
I don't think Simple MA(SMA) is better or worse than Exponential MA(EMA) - it depends on how you use it, which again depends on how long or short your time frame; or how responsive you want the MA echoing the price changes.
In general, short time frame like two three weeks or even two three months makes very little difference between the two - just experiment on them and see for your self.
Personally I prefer Weighted MA(WMA), which places a lot more "weightage" on the latest closing data - I like it because I find them to be "faster" or more closely trailing the price movement.
On a longer term basis, I like to use 200day SMA to gauge bullish or bearish "tendency", not because of choice, but because of others - this one is used and observed by so many market watchers that I have to pay attention to what they are paying attention to - just to stay ahead/keep an eye on what they would/will do in such circumstance.
For example, when a stock or index is going to break below the 200d sma, many may decide to get out or do something silly, which as a result, bring about a mini collapse of the stock or index etc. (As a matter of interest, keep this in mind and watch next time when something like this happens and see how the price goes crazy... or people go crazy  )
Cheers.
ps: on people selling, sometimes I sell for no reason at all! , especially when I don't follow trend. I believe you are doing the right thing by keeping an eye on those number thingy - but if you don't mind me saying this - between the head and the heart, logic and emotion - nine out of ten times, the heart or emotion wins! So, sometimes, you might want to venture out of the logical side of thing and into the "voodoo art" of emotion/psychology study.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 758
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 28, 2005 - 12:32 pm: |
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LNG Daily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 762
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 28, 2005 - 05:15 pm: |
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Dr,
Here they are:
1) after the initial run up, the stock has formed a base with 42c posing as resistance. It tested this resistance about 4 times and in the final thrust - it broke free!
2) throughout the base the RSI has been holding "steady" above the 50 line(probably due to low volume) indicating there weren't a lot of selling going on.
3) after it broke free, the last arrow was showing the stock price has retested the old resistance (42c) which now has posed as support for the stock. All the while the RSI was staying well above 50 which if you like can assume its internal strength has moved up to a new level. (In future we will use this line in RSI as an early signal to gauge if there is any likely change in the stock price strength.)
4) using the lowest point in the rounding bottom which is 33.5c and measure to the resistance level which is 42c would give us a potential gain of 8.5c, add this to 42c would give us a potential target of 50.5c.
This is just a target to aim for, but the best approach from here would be to let the profit run and see where/when it hits a high point and make a correction. That probably will be a good point to take a short term profit. In general, the longer the base (in this case about 3.5 months), I would like to give the stock at least half the time to complete its move (depending on how fast and how much its future move will be).
So, it's still early days!
Cheers.
ps: LIP = LIPA Pharmaceuticals Limited
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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