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     dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 957
Registered: 03-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 03:56 pm: |  
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Here's a potential guppy countback,val bj.It might be oversold and could develop.
Price plunge through downgrading of 05 profit forecast."We can't get tradesman to fill the Demand"the excuse.I don't know if it will go up percentwise very fast or far but who knows?It does have guppy potential,though.Seems to be bottoming.
Any Thoughts?
regards,
jr
ps-yes msparks i looked at it after your post today in Gaps/Psych or was it system section.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 942
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 06:26 pm: |
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Dr,
I don't think VLL is a good idea... jmv.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 53
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 10:29 pm: |
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HC has canned this one already 
Wrong sector,realestate,FKP looks the best in retirement living stuff.
VTR is the property trust and VLL is the bob the builder / developer
Great concept for retirees using Govt rent assistance and pension to pay the accommodation bill plus tucka.
OK if you have a bucks hidden away to play with.
Risks would be government withdrawing rent assistance to retirees.
Read the prospectus for both and see if you can work out how they make money.
Couldn't quite get it myself.
http://www.villagelife.com.au/
mm
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 960
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 10:52 pm: |
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Now i've only done a minimum research on this,but it's shaping for me fundamentally.[d'old time religion way not by figures]
Now this company sets up 'seniors'homes' and rents them out.RENTS not suckers in the old folks on a property scam like some of its competitors.Now the rent=a single pension+gov't rent assistance.thats a total of $34 a day[238/week]a bit steep for single accomodation but it does include 3 meals a day.This may not feel right to you,taking all the pensioners money,poor old duffers can't have any fun if they don't have money,right?but the 'trick' is that this is the set flat rate.IF you have more than the single pension government paid,you still pay that calculation of rent.
Now you have to have,be au fait,as d'french say,with pensioner ASSET TESTS,you can have something like $200 grand+ as a single age pensioner non-homeowner.Assuming this stays[and age pensioners aren't up for no Howard chop,they are his main electors]can you see how this is an interesting business?An interesting option for Seniors?
Well i reckon it is that it is worthwhile doing more research on,especially as it's been hammered recently and the average mum/dad shareholder is yet to wake up that this,Village Life is way better than having your quite active parents living in a Caravan Park.[which if you haven't noticed d'old folks used to have til they got sold out to fancy property developers]
I know a lot more reserch is necessary.I'll keep you up with mine.Any input from others appreciated.
Got to get to bed before julles comes on line.
regards,
jr
edit-crossed over mm.i know a little of fkp,it's a lock in real estate deal.mucho dubious imho.i'll check where the money comes from d'Village soon.
(Message edited by dogalog on March 13, 2005)
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vbj
Member
Username: vbj
Post Number: 55
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 12:30 am: |
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Hi jr,I think you and I are just looking at it from the guppy point of view which I think this thread is really about.I think it is candidate because it has broken above the downtrend.I make the countback line 1.75 .If it closes above that "it's in play" ! I'm not looking at fundamentals ,just want to test his ideas.
"Au fait" ! I might be able to use that on holiday enjoying the French "village life".
Cheers Val J 
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 943
Registered: 08-2004Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 08:10 am: |
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I don't know what's happening with the "mindset" of the potential investors here... but as far as I am concerned, I will stay out of this one. Instead of seeing all the gold, how about asking why the stock dropped from 2.60 to 1.60 in a short period of 2 months?
That is 1.00/2.60=38% drop! If the fundamentals are so good, why are they selling? Right now it's almost back to the square one - back to where they started.. Something is seriously wrong with this stock - if you think it's a good idea to invest in it, the least you can do is to investigate what caused it's drop.
Until you are 120% comfortable with the reason of why the price drop, at least you know you get into this one with your eyes wide open. But until then, I think picking bottom such as this is like picking the best rotten apple in a barrel of rotten apples - you are way better off looking elsewhere if you are looking for long term fundamental play.
If you are looking for something to trade, then my advice here is at least wait for the sp showing three days of white candle - wait until the chart is telling you there might be a change of heart among the investors.
Even if you intend to trade, you must find a good speculative driver - compare this with OGD - OGD was riding on the recent gold price hike, wait for the gold price cooling down a little and you will see OGD coming down fast. But at least it has a carrot dangling in front of the punters that say "GOLD".
What does VLL have? It has stick dressed like a carrot with a small word that says "PAIN"!
SDI Daily
1) SDI was discussed quite extensively in another place on fundamentals, with hindsight everyone now knows that this stock has been hiding its sales in inventory or something like that (didn't really pay attention because the chart simply turned me off);
2) some smart FA person picked up some questionable accounting practice of SDI and raised the alarm quite early but I believe he was right but was ignored.
3) anyway, the stock went through some split and from 2.00 onward started to deteriorate until the current sp of 1.15 - kinda feel sorry for one guy who was putting a large percentage of his $$$ in this one.
4) is SDI relevant to VLL relevant to GUD relevant to FUN? Probably not. The point I am trying to make is when you start talking about fundamentals and "reasons" and justifications, and when you start ignoring the charts, you are ignoring what the market is telling you.
Assuming the reading and the interpretation of the chart is wrong, assuming the TA "prediction" or the "projection" is wrong, still you cannot ignore the SP because it is real - it's the denomination of what stock buyers and sellers are willing to exchange their $$$ with shares.
So here's the gist of thing and how I see it - you can talk about your perception of a stock, you can talk about your perception of a stock chart, you can explain logically and fundamentally of why and how and what a stock price should behave - it's immaterial because this is not what the market is saying or agreeing.
That is why the adage of "don't argue with the market" makes so much sense - each candle bar in the stock chart is telling you and I what the market is saying - without prejudice or perception, pure and simple.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 961
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 09:36 am: |
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Good on you,Holy Cow.I'm not offended by a hit between the eyes.I don't feel i have to 'protect' my ego by 'chucking a cow'!!You have to be able to discuss the sharemarket in the same way you have to play it.
PUT YOUR MONEY ON d'LINE.
so i haven't with VLL,i might never but i appreciate your input,your explanations.If others don't?tough UDDERS!!
Anyway,hc,the old time religion as i call it,has a basis called 'Sleep at Night',like all sayings it has permutations.Mine is not to invest and lose in Companies that leaves me tossing at night thinking"Why did i invest in a shonky,dodgy dud.I should have looked at the business plan more." THIS is different to the company losing sales whatever,eps downgrade etc.that's just the breaks in the Game.The other[dodgy/dud] is not seeing that it was a marked deck of cards.
I hope you understand.HC.Maintain d'Rage!!
regards,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 946
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 10:25 am: |
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Dr,
Don't get me wrong - I am not "raging". It's just the way I speak when I have accidentally swallowed some "fermented hays".
Quoting SDI was because of "that poor chap" who had presented such a detailed and professional financial analysis of the company which made him sticking to his gun and paid such a heavy price; and yet I/we/people have no way to know if he has "seen the light". He has single handedly put a blinder over his head and then he waited for the sledge hammer to fall - must we learn through our own painful personal experience in order not to repeat his footstep?
Since then, in between I have seen so many good/sound FA reasonings and holding on to good stocks because of their disciplines and whatever personal traits. I am not saying they are wrong if they insist on holding on after all it's their money. If they want to give it away, I am sure many are willing to pocket it. But even so, it's painful to watch.
Here's a bit of my own general view - use FA at the bottom of a bear market and use TA at the top of a bull market - it makes sense. Right now, we are closer to the top than the bottom, it makes no sense to use FA to pick stock for long term, even if the individual stock seems to be reaching a bottom, because the overall market is still in a bullish sentiment - a stock falls in a bullish market has a reason, most times it's because it has certain weakness like overpricing, missing earning forecast, etc.
To pick that individual stock needs patience in this case, the patience for it to reach its ultimate bottom following the overall market trend. If I am a true FA practitioner I will hold on to my cash and wait patiently. Apparently, this is what some funds are doing right now. They are waiting for "opportunity". So why not just copy their move? Let them do the hard work and set the foundation for future rally before you jump in for a ride - remember it needs cash to push a stock price. As small retailer, we simply can't move mountain no matter how hard we try.
Anyway this rant is over. Keep your discussion going as usual - it makes life interesting and richer as I have said earlier.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 962
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 11:04 am: |
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HC-i'm investigating new companies for FUTURE investment.i'm not putting my money in next week or month,maybe not til next year.This is what i do while i'm waiting,ok?When i stop waiting then i go to TA for entry points etc.
VLL is a new age boarding house set-up.As long as the tenants don't require care,medical care,they're in.This is privatised Housing Commission,alternative Caravan Park.I think it has various merits financially mainly through its connections to developing Government policy and possibly through 'Tenant Control',no too wild parties in this Village Life,perhaps not even a default in rent payments.
It appears they sell the completed villages off to Private Investors on a purely collect rent basis of return.[with them management fee collecting]I haven't confirmed that last bit yet,let alone pondered it as a investment plan.
I'm not making value judgements,concerning myself with ethics of their business or how they fit with morals,religion,any such thing.I'm just checking out d'Operation before having to go charting any decision.
Now you have an excellent day,hc.Stay active on the forum.did ya see FCN is still on the plummet?looks like its going to be ducked,hey?
cheers,
jr
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 966
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 02:55 pm: |
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VLL fell,gapped because they said they were gunner[going to] and they didn't.The main non achievement was lower tenancy rates then expected.This happened because
a)they put the rents up
b)they couldn't build the expected number of units thru 1)trade skill shortage.2)Council approval delays.
In general the set-up is VLL builds and manages the unit development.VTR is a property trust that both buys sites for VLL to develop and manage and also buys VLL's already developed sites off them.
Management[including feeding tenants] is at a fee of approx 60% of the gross rent which is some 90/95% of a single pension plus $90 odd rent assistance.
In my opinion,rent assistance will not be scrapped.The main thrust of Soc Sec reform is directed at getting it[pension/benefit]spent on neccessities like food and shelter and Rent assistance will not be chopped[IMO]
Other than that VLL is not running nursing homes,it's not providing Medical Care other than siting itself near a Medical Centre.Old tenant who breaks their hip,has a heart attack,gets too demented?Gets the shove and someone healthier takes their place on the rent roll.Pure Darwin for the New Age.
I found out more,anyone who wants to know? just ask.
cheers,
jr
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ann
Member
Username: ann
Post Number: 370
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 16, 2005 - 10:34 pm: |
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Are you saying jr, these elderly people are paying about $300 a week for what...a one bedroom unit with meals thrown in? Elderly people don't eat very much you know.
I suppose there would be people that would say ...good business. I just say it seems unbelievably unethical and cruel. I wonder how they convince the elderly to agree.
Surely they must promise them more than just food and lodging for goodness sake?
Cheers
Ann
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 969
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 09:49 am: |
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Ann,you mustn't have been to a boarding house or caravan park and must not have cared as Public Housing got eliminated.
This [VLL] is not directed at the 'Fancy Pants',it is for what is described as the 'financially disadvantaged'.Ann,the pension take is in reality giving them a better lifestyle,in better conditions,than sitting in a boarding house room waiting for an appartment block developer to put in $700/week Studios.
VLL is an alternative,it is invested in by 'social conscience'institutions like Banks and AMP.
Want to hear more?
cheers,
jr
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 961
Registered: 08-2004Rating:
Votes: 1
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