Let's do the Resurrection Shuffle

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rederob

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Post Number: 1641
Registered: 10-2002

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Saturday, October 22, 2005 - 10:14 pm:

Mr Gibson's confinement is in part due to the "danger" he posed to the "gullible" by posting a technically incorrect chart.
It drew this response from Colin:

Arthur,

Colin's Trading Diary posted this description today of the events alluded to by Mr Gibson;

Mr Gibson described the same event at the time as follows:

In my opinion, what we have here is a "flag" or a "creeping trend down". These are almost always resolved in the direction of the trend by a fast move in the direction of the trend and not in the direction of the flag or creeping trend. The question is, which way is the trend, up or down? Flags and creeping trends almost always go the opposite way to the trend and I am convinced that our trend is up and therefore that is why out creeping trend, or flag is sloping downwards. Our index is not struggling to go UP, it is struggling to go DOWN. When this struggle exhausts, the reaction will be to fly UP."

I don't understand the flag or wedge technical indicators, but I do understand the accompanying descriptions. Colin says it is likely to be resolved by trending "up" and Mr Gibson says by flying "up".

If Colin is to fairly judge Mr Gibson, I believe it would acknowledge that he identified the nature of an important technical event and described the likely outcome correctly in technical terms.

I re-read the above several times to see if I was confused or missing something. The only thing essentially different is that Colin has identified "a descending broadening wedge" while Mr Gibson may have misled us by calling it a "flag" or a "creeping trend down".
Otherwise Colin says it is "a rare pattern that normally resolves in the direction of the long-term trend" while Mr Gibson says "these are almost always resolved in the direction of the trend".

Fair go Colin.
Is there more to Mr Gibson's departure from your forum than we are privv to from postings?
Can he be shackled to the back pages so that those inclined to trading excellence need never cast another stone in anger?
Whatever the outcome, it does seem that Mr Gibson called the play correctly even if the players were a bit dodgy.

rederob

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Post Number: 1642
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, October 22, 2005 - 10:25 pm:

Put out your tongue
Put your head in the air.
Make a "V" sign
And you just don't care.
Now you feel free
You gotta loose control.
All Gods children gotta
Little bit of soul.
You don't have to think
You don't have to move
A muscle just do the brow beatin'
Heavy leather resurrection shuffle.

Think about nothing now
You're nice and high
You're advocating love
But you don't know why.
Now you getting vibrations
All down to your feet.
That's the brow beatin'
Heavy leather resurrection beat.

"....from the Resurrection Shuffle
selective lyrics by Ashton Gardner & Dyke

rederob

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Post Number: 1645
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, October 22, 2005 - 11:50 pm:

RESURRECTION: DUE TO LOST SEGMENTS IN INITIAL POST:

Mr Gibson's confinement is in part due to the "danger" he posed to the "gullible" by posting a technically incorrect chart.
It drew this response from Colin:

Arthur,

I am concerned that you can post a chart like this.
Are there any readers who agree with the conclusion?

Regards
Colin

Colin's Trading Diary posted this description today of the events alluded to by Mr Gibson;

ASX Australia

The All Ordinaries has formed a descending broadening wedge over the last two weeks: a rare pattern that normally resolves in the direction of the long-term trend (in this case up). Friday's long tail signals buying support above the first major support line (from the previous peak in the primary up-trend) at 4250/60. Attempts to enter at this point are inadvisable because of the high failure rate. Thomas Bulkowski (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns) recommends waiting for a close above the upper trendline or a partial decline: a trough that is higher than the preceding trough.

Mr Gibson described the same event a few days earlier as follows:

In my opinion, what we have here is a "flag" or a "creeping trend down". These are almost always resolved in the direction of the trend by a fast move in the direction of the trend and not in the direction of the flag or creeping trend. The question is, which way is the trend, up or down? Flags and creeping trends almost always go the opposite way to the trend and I am convinced that our trend is up and therefore that is why out creeping trend, or flag is sloping downwards. Our index is not struggling to go UP, it is struggling to go DOWN. When this struggle exhausts, the reaction will be to fly UP."

I don't understand the flag or wedge technical indicators, but I do understand the accompanying descriptions. Colin says it is likely to be resolved by trending "up" and Mr Gibson says by flying "up".

If Colin is to fairly judge Mr Gibson, I believe it would acknowledge that he identified the nature of an important technical event and described the likely outcome correctly in technical terms.

I re-read the above several times to see if I was confused or missing something. The only thing essentially different is that Colin has identified "a descending broadening wedge" while Mr Gibson may have misled us by calling it a "flag" or a "creeping trend down".
Otherwise Colin says it is "a rare pattern that normally resolves in the direction of the long-term trend" while Mr Gibson says "these are almost always resolved in the direction of the trend".

Fair go Colin.
Is there more to Mr Gibson's departure from your forum than we are privy to from postings?
Can he be shackled to the back pages so that those inclined to trading excellence need never cast another stone in anger?
Whatever the outcome, it does seem that Mr Gibson called the play correctly even if the players were a bit dodgy.

julles

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Post Number: 1554
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 12:05 am:

To be fair Both opinions are correct, I really don't see why Mr Giboson has been forbiddin from posting, and I again implore upon the council of the forum to reconsider.

Politics should be left where it belongs, in the ghettos'

We are all better because we Can be. Think about it.

Julles

rederob

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Post Number: 1646
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 12:10 am:

One last point before pulling up stumps tonight.

Colin posted:
"If you can't get that right you shouldn't be posting charts.”

If the "descending broadening wedge" pattern is so rare, how many readers would have (a) noticed the pattern in the first instance (b) been able to correctly identify it, and (c) been able to determine its outcome?

Mr Gibson got the first and last points - and they are the ones that matter: If the pattern was called a Dutch Cap I would still be none the wiser.

I would hate to think of how many times I have misrepresented a chart pattern to others, and I'm still posting.
Does that mean nobody takes any notice of my charts, and/or nobody is willing to help me improve - probably both!
I too should be banned to protect the readers, now that I come to think of it.

STUMPS

julles

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Post Number: 1557
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Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 01:22 am:

Sigh' there is much more going on in the world without MR AR or yourself....

I'm pondering how everyone will fair as Wilma covets their homes.

Good trades too you, Julles

vermante

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Post Number: 482
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 08:18 am:

Colin

I believe you should explain to the Forum why Arthur was banned(or in fact if any one is banned ).If any rules have been breached then it is important that Forum Members are aware how these rules are interpreted by IC management.

As far as the fear that Arthur's advice might be construed as investment advice by the gullible - is'nt there a clear escape clause for I.C. under -:

"Do not use this forum for investment advice"

Confused

Vermante

N.B.-1 If an explanation has been provided this post is withdrawn

N.B.-2 This post will be repeated under "King Arthur" for those who do not visit the back pages

holycow

Member

Post Number: 1961
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 1


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 09:26 am:

Funny Chart

Rederob,

1) Here're my opinions... I agree with you that you don't know TA or you don't practise TA or chart reading;

2) I agree 200% with Colin's comment I am concerned that you can post a chart like this. Are there any readers who agree with the conclusion? - it is FAIR and VERY VERY SENSIBLE! No one should question Colin's view up to that point!

3) With regard to AG's chart - frankly it's not chart reading but his projection - there's no basis for make that "conclusion" with regard to the zigzag direction, the level of recovery and the height of recovery - these are his imagination. See my attached chart.

Even IF subsequently the market and the chart turn out to be a 100% fit that doesn't make AG's chart read at this point to be valid or credible. But I probably will ask him for his tatts' pick because I sure willbe impressed by his ability to crystal ball gazing!

4) As of this point in time, the most USEFUL thing we can get from reading chart is the "DIRECTION" of the market - up, down or sideway with respect to timeframe. Like I have a personal bias and I expect the XAO to drop further, but I also would like to see how the index hold up in the next two days before I place my bet. Do I know EXACTLY where it will go direction wise? No! Neither will I know exactly where the index will fall to or rebound to. Using Fibo, past support/resistance level, trendline, etc are just means to provide a guide to estimate a likely end target - in this light you can say I am no different from AG, but those zigzag line he drawn is far-fetched - it shows he doesn't know chart reading.

5) This comes back to Colin's comment - a caution which in my mind is timely and necessary. My gut reaction when I saw that chart was similar to his. (I actually expected the participants in that thread to raise some kind of question. None was forth coming except Colin's).

The scenario is like this - in that thread, assuming a lot of people "believing" in AG's ability, they are like a group of school boys getting on a bus, driven by a "L" plate driver - he may or may not reach the final destination - but as a parent I will be worried.

6) AG's reaction to Colin's comment and AT THAT TIME the market was moving against his final chart direction - he conceded it was 'bad" and asked Colin to remove his chart. At that point - that should be the END of the issue. But he reopened it with a challenge when at EOD he was making some money and he went back to his usual exaggerate way - at that point I think he reminded me of my neighbour's little son - he was pulling a stunt which was potentially dangerous, he was told not to, he struggled but managed to come out alright, and he was not happy with my intervention and proceeded to give me his defiant "look"... but the next time, he may not be that lucky.

Sure, anyone can argue the other way that he knows what he is doing, can't argue with that. But I think whether AG makes money or not at EOD has nothing to do with that "chart reading" - Colin's comment is still valid. No thanks, instead he got a dirty look from AG instead. Does AG need some restraint? YES!

(...most newbie (not referring to AG here) I came across always think they know more than the average traders - the newer they are the more invincible they think they are after making some initial "lucky money". In my view, in this forum, assuming there're a fair number of newbie joining, they should take a stance of being very cautious at this moment INSTEAD OF A GREEDY,FEELING LUCKY, GAMBLING/SPECULATING ATTITUDE.

They should be thinking of survival strategy like standing aside, instead of AVERAGING DOWN - newbies like to do this because they can't handle the fact that they were caught wrong footed at the point of mistake - they should fear, not feeling angry and for want of revenge by going against the market. For someone with limited capital, they are getting their capital all tied up without seeing the bottom. BAD MOVE!)

7)... the subsequent action on AG, I think is water under the bridge - right or wrong I think a decision has been made. It's up to the "panel" - I have no wish to comment on that.

8) A general comment here and I may be seen as sucking up to Colin - IC is a charting software. This forum has an empahsis on TA traditionally. There's a basis or foundation on which TA is built on. Colin has done extensive work which you can refer to do. A popular thread such as AG's and with his "method" and frequent changing/conflicting views has nothing to do with what IC is about. Neither does it help others/newbie to learn anything that they can retain as a form of "skill" to help their trading. Sure, they may be having a good time, but let's not mixed up the two.

As the owner of this site and this forum, if I am in Colin's position I will be concerned because 1) someone is making a mockery of the technique and knowledge built up over the years; 2) I will not want someone to promote the "feel lucky" and make easy money attitude in my new subscribers - this is not what this site is about; 3) I'd like those who are new to this forum (and my new customers) to learn a skill that they can retain for the rest of their trading life, that they'd be able to fish for themselves and not relying on others. I like to see them totally independent and successful in this aspect; 4) I'd like to maintain/retain a level of control where this forum is going, ideally it should go in the direction/mission I have set up for this site.

This business can only PROSPER if what it sells here work! But it also depends HEAVILY on the RIGHT SET OF MIND/ATTITUDE on the part of its users/customers.

So, let's give Colin his right to do what he feels is necessary.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

vermante

Member

Post Number: 485
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 09:51 am:

If a crime has been committed , in a court of law ,a judge will explain which sections of an Act have been contravened and the penalties that are associated with it.

It is important that we understand what the Issue here is .

I believe the primary issue here is "What IC Rules have Arthur contravened".Please point me to the relevant section and the associated penalties

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 1648
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 10:36 am:

your holiness HC
How right you are.
Both Colin and Mr Gibson agree on the same matter.
But Mr Gibson is wrong because, because....
Well he's wrong because he called it a "flag".
And, because Mr Gibson dared to "forecast" and draw some zig zags he cannot be sure will eventuate he is very dangerous - I must agree - and even he acknowledges the dangers of the markets.
It is abundantly clear from your post that chart reading must stop at the point the data on the chart is reached.
Unless one is thoroughly versed in the arcane science of technical analysis (or owns a website) one must not attempt technical analysis or, perhaps, forecasting from its analysis.
In 2 days time I look forward to your definitive post of the XAO trend and will ask how much you "bet" on it.
This will be an enlightening change from your view that we have only "opinions".
I am especially impressed with your new axiom for a business to PROSPER: "depends HEAVILY on the RIGHT SET OF MIND/ATTITUDE on the part of its users/customers".
Now I know what I have been doing wrong all these years and will ensure my clients are thoroughly vetted before I ask them to part with their money.

(Message edited by rederob on October 23, 2005)

holycow

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Post Number: 1965
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Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 10:39 am:

Rederob,

Here's something to share - while I was composing that post I was anticipating your reaction. Guess what? :-)

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

rederob

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Post Number: 1650
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 11:29 am:

your holiness HC
When you start addressing the issues or points I raise you will get a very serious and thorough response from me.
Your "3 strikes" post suggests the need for much better research - not just reading, but understanding the significance of what is read.
I cannot personally see the point of a chart unless it is used as an aid to trading.
Mr Gibson has "put it on the line" as it were, warts and all.
He has described what he sees and how he is likely to react.
Only a few members of this forum have ever opened up their daily trading to scrutiny.
Irrespective of how useful his analysis or trades are, he has given a very interesting insight how one with a good deal of money goes about shopping for value amongst our blue chips.
I think there is a valuable place for that information on this forum.
He openly invites those who believe he is not the real McCoy to visit him.
I won't and don't need to, but respect him for what he has done and how he has treated his detractors.
What we do not have right now is a lively debate on what the markets will do tomorrow.
That's what Mr Gibson was fostering.
If one thought he was seeking "followers" rather than thinkers, then read his posts again.
By the way, I believe it is very courteous to reply to your earlier post which you addressed directly to me by name. I am not sure why it was important to post a reply anticipating my reaction.
If you wish me to be discourteous to you, please email me.

smallworld

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Post Number: 363
Registered: 01-2004

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Votes: 6


Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 11:39 am: