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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 495
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 08, 2005 - 02:12 pm: |  
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I mostly wanted to road test my new avatar but what the heck I have issues with this Weinstein bloke and the constant references to him so I'll get on his case,tear him apart.Anyone want to be on his side?or even mine?well?
JOIN IN.
my avatar in max so you don't have to read my quite pitiful profile.
i'll hop to it/like/later-jr
Dig for it.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2037
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 08, 2005 - 04:09 pm: |
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... now that's what I call a cool frog. If you tell me it can do break dance while croaking for a mate and catching a fly in between - I'LL BUY IT!
I AM A BELIEVER! 
Go Dug go!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 500
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 10:51 am: |
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You just like the avatar because it's Anatomically Correct,hey HC?
I'm working you out HC,don't you worry bout dat!!?!
Anyway hoisting the Weinstein Rag,i hope it's red.
Now,weino adherents will be comforted by the fact I've never Read this book.
My impressions have been wholly garnered from Posts on this Forum mostly as "This is a 'RESPECTABLE',an inviolate call/judgement/view because Weinstein says....."
I hate that.I hate "Authorities",bet you never knew That about me,hey?
Anyway my first basic fault with d'Weino is he's Wall St Yank and one should ponder the Simple FACT that the ASX has maybe 3/5/10at most shares in it that are anywhere comparable with DOW/FTSE several hundred if not thousands of ones in size,shareholder spread %'s,Market Capitalisation.
So if,If,IF you're not applying weino doctrines to that maybe half dozen ASX stocks,you MAY be doing too high faluting,pure analysis.Horses for Courses,do you follow?
I give the example of a 'freak'* months ago applying Weino criteria to MUL at 2cents.[*freak-is a positive word in my lexicon]Some palaver about nearing Long Term average,d'freak was rabbitin'bout.This is what set me off to 'qualify' the teachings of this Weinstein character.
Will anyone post a clear guideline of what d'Dude actually leads you by?
only if you've the Time.I'll be back regardless.
Happy Trading,
jr
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 2226
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 11:06 am: |
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Dug
This may help: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/breakout_model.htm
Regards
Colin
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2040
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 2
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 11:42 am: |
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Chart Reading: Market Stage Analysis
from Secrets for Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein
Just as a picture is worth a thousand words, a stock chart will often tell you more than what is published in the financial statements. One glance is often worth a thousand earnings forecasts, and as such successful investors and traders never buy a stock without checking the chart.
Just remember this basic fact: any stock has to be in one of the 4 market stages, and the trick is to be able to identify each one. The four stages of a major cycle are:
(1) Basing Area
(2) Advancing Stage
(3) Top Area
(4) Declining Stage
These different stages are illustrated below:
STAGE 1: THE BASING AREA
Characteristics:
- stock price trending sideways within a range
- intermittent rallies and declines will toss stock above and below the moving average (MA)
- volume dries up before increasing at late stage
- basing action can go on for months, or in some cases, years
After a stock has been declining for several months, it eventually will lose downside momentum and start to trend sideways. What's actually taking place is that buyers and sellers are starting to move into equilibrium, whereas previously the sellers were far stronger, which is why the stock had plummeted. Volume will start to lessen as a base forms. But often volume will start to expand late in Stage 1, even though prices remain little changed. This is an indication that dumping of the stock by disgruntled owners is no longer driving down the price. The buyers who are moving in to take the stock off their hands are not demanding any signification price concession. This is a favourable indication.
This is the point where many market players get itchy to move in and catch the bottom price. But it doesn't do much good to buy yet. Even if you catch the exact low, your money could be tied up for a long time with little movement. Even worse, premature investors often get impatient and end up selling after months of frustrating sideways action right before the big move starts.
STAGE 2: ADVANCING STAGE
Characteristics:
- stock price breaks out upwards from base
- 30-week moving average starts turning up
- initial rally followed by at least one pullback (usually close to breakout point)
- at time of breakout (beginning of Stage 2), the reported fundamentals will often be negative
- successive highs and lows are higher than the previous ones
- stock price consistently above 30-week MA
- during mid-Stage 2, the reported fundamentals start to improve as more investors belatedly buy
- angle of ascent of MA will then slow down considerably
- during late Stage 2, the stock is often subject of rumours and glowing reports
- inexperienced investors and latecomers enter the stock; early investors starts to sell
There are 2 good times to buy: (1) at the point of breakout above resistance and 30-week MA, and (2) when the stock pulls back to MA after the initial rally. Look for rising volume on breakouts. Reward-risk ratio is very favourable at these points. As long as the wild swings and shakeouts on the way up take place above the stock's rising 30-week MA, don't worry - everything is proceeding according to plan and is on schedule for a big profit! If you miss buying a stock at these 2 favourable points, don't get panicky and chase it at late Stage 2. Either buy it right or don't buy it at all. If you have missed a good stock, don't fret about it. Wait for the next great opportunity to come by.
STAGE 3: THE TOP AREA
Characteristics:
- upward advance loses momentum and starts to trend sideways
- Volume is usually heavy and moves are sharp and choppy
- 30-week MA starts to flatten out
- stock price tiptoe below and above the MA on declines and rallies
- traders getting out in masses as inexperienced investors support the selling pressure
At this stage, the 30-week MA starts to flatten out after Stage 2 advances. The stock price often starts to waver above and below the MA, whereas it was mostly above the MA in Stage 2. The heavy volume on the part of buyers who are excited by the improving fundamentals or "story", is met in equal measure by aggressively selling by the people who bought at considerably lower prices and are heading for the exits.
This is the time for investors to take profits on only half of their position. There is always the chance that the stock will breakout on the upside again, beginning yet another Stage 2 upleg. If you still hold half of your original position, you will then be able to benefit from the upward movement of this new Stage 2. But it is imperative that you protect your profits on the remaining half with a protective stop set right beneath the bottom of the new support level.
Be very careful to keep your emotions in check in Stage 3, because the stories about the stock will usually be exciting. No matter how powerful the fundamentals, no matter how convincing the story, you are never going to buy a stock in this stage, because the reward-risk ratio is strongly stacked against you.
STAGE 4: THE DECLINING PHASE
Characteristics:
- stock eventually breaks below the bottom of a support zone
- light selling volume is followed by heaving dumping
- 30-week MA turns downward
- stock price consistently below MA
- unsophisticated investors buy on the way down, thinking that it is a bargain
Unlike an upside breakout, which needs a significant increase in volume to be considered trustworthy, a downside break into Stage 4 does not necessarily need such a huge increase in volume to be considered valid. In many cases, stocks move into Stage 4 on relatively light volume but only to drop substantially in the months ahead. Don't ever get lured into a fall sense of security because the volume isn't heavy!
Never buy a stock in Stage 4. Never keep a stock as it is starting Stage 4. Downward risk is considerable while upside potential is very small. Reward-risk ratio is now too unfavourable to even contemplate a hold!
*** Dug, you DO NOT want to knock Weinstein because many of what he has said are quite valid. Many who really understood W's work have profited from it especially for the trend riders.
I suggest you NOT seek to knock his methodology but instead I urge you to try to understand what he is saying. Only after you have thoroughly understood what he is about then you do what you like. Also I suggest you borrow his book from your local library for a better read - that way I am sure when you come back to this thread you will be confident to take on all comers.
Another point you should consider is in general any US stocks that are selling below US15 is considered "speculative" or "small cap" or "risky" - which means the patronage from the investment funds is quite small. This has the effect in making many of the "normal"/"regular" chart patterns, trend etc invalid due to the excessive speculation or manipulation.
For a 2c MUL, I don't think it is relevant to what Big W is talking about.
Here's also an "application" question, look at the W's Stage Chart and then you compare that with XAO or XJO index chart, ignore the detail level like 4480, etc; just look at the overall "SHAPE" or "PATTERN" - tell me where do you think ASX is at currently?
Cheers.
ps: really, your frog avatar is COOL! I like it!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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007
Member
Username: 007
Post Number: 193
Registered: 05-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 01:24 pm: |
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Dug,
CRAZY FROG!!!
That's cool man... but I'm a bit concerned for your small friend. What's that little thing hanging between his legs? Is it a belly button or a pimple?
Could be a Weinstein stage 4!
Take care,
007
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longshanks
Member
Username: longshanks
Post Number: 175
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 01:59 pm: |
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HC
ls
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2043
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 02:08 pm: |
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LS...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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davkell
Member
Username: davkell
Post Number: 274
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 07:48 pm: |
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.... or you could read the book!
"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 503
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 10, 2005 - 09:03 am: |
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now,now davkell don't fall so easily to a sucker punch/the obvious cliche.
Thanks Colin,not enough reading of the sidebars with all your trading/market hints etc etc is done by this Forum IMV.You should also get more chat going on TMF[twigg money flow nix d'Motley Fool]People only seem to appreciate Indicators they've read about in Books."Oh this YankeeDoodle says it's Fab,must get on to it"
This is kinda what I'm 'investigating' with this thread.I'm looking for a 'Companion' volume that adapts the Wino to Australia.As an example,150 days/30 wks appears to have been adapted by Spider to 100days/20weeks.Hull and probably d'Gup appear to have done some work for the popular market.
Anyway,that four stage palaver is just the Market can only go up/down/sideways and to me that's no revelation.I know people mostly like to see and think what 'favours' them,despite any and all evidence They think they're right because,well,usually it all this self-esteem palaver that personally is just too,too Californian I'm ok you're ok junk and muck.I've managed entertainers.I know how crazy people get thinking 'good'or better of themselves.
So I'll continue angling out on Weinstein.Your comment about US$15 cut-out is interesting HC.Though it'd be Market Cap more than price per se surely.There's nothing to stop a 500mil Company having $15 shares,or a 50bil one having $10 ones?right?
I'm going to try and modify your paranoia of d'Nasties,HC.I agree and can see many of your examples but I just think you may be getting a bit extreme,chicken licken so to speak,you have to work with them in tandem,not neccessarily do what they do but.. well,I'll explore it later.
As for you,007 has your girlfriend stopped bashing ya yet?
and longshanks ,well back again,hey?I'm looking for yogi-in-ozzies post on TIME,time in the market factor.He wrote something about it,musta been a year ago,and as usual I'm in a state of Lost It! and i'd like to chat with him about that.can you ask him,LS at ya next Brekkie?
back later,
jr
Dig for it.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2045
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 10, 2005 - 12:02 pm: |
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Dug,
... you're the MAN - never take it lying down!
Keep it up mate. Can't wait to see what you will dig up next.
Btw, the general rule over there - big cap with small price tag = poorly run company or most likely a "dog" (as in the "dogs of the Dow". But there could be exception.
Over here I still maintain this view - Big W's "concept" works. The 30w MA makes good sense and the 4 stages of chart is like a MAP - when you are lost, check out where you are.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 511
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 11, 2005 - 01:10 pm: |
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HC,
were you offended by the implication awhile back that to post regular,like several times a day,was in someway,well,how they same Lame.LAME!!
Like if your day ain't spent hawking,doing d'Plot'n'plan,Buy SELL action,intense concentration on every tick of the clock, that ahhhh dey taken it as so that a consto-poster has got a be missing d'Action.Some kinda poser is implied.
What I'm Saying HC is that well like,you know what I'm talking about.You YOURSELF HC,Holy Cow have done more posts than even ME in aggregate of aliases so well,that's what I'm Talking About.
Do you feel a bit like INSULTED by five line a Quarter self proclaimed ABOVE Equal,well i don't wanna be Ageist,HC,like i'm into a line on feral grannys but these old men,with their post-50's,can only read a sentence in single syllabyls
Well they THEY make me think of the acronmym for price of oil,for one thing
JIMPOV[just in my point of Valley/view]
jr
Dig for it.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2059
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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