Archive through March 06, 2007
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2743
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 02:29 pm: | 
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At some point in everyone's trading or investing life, they will get into a "trap" which is almost always self-inflicted"... by this I mean the FA practitioner would try to think and behave like a TA expert while the TA practitioner would try to talk low PE and cheap valuation. Of course in between there are the odd bunch of FATA talkers like moi...
Regardless which group we think we belong to, it is important to recognise this "phenomenon", and most times, this happens when the market is on the verge of "great happening", not unlike now.
...because too much is at stake - years of incubation and accumulation of profits, years of unwavering belief, tested and proven in the last three years' market are being challenged in the strongest and most unbelievable way!
A rehatch of the Asian contagion starring by China and the SSE! Is it possible? Is it plausible?
Deep down I believe the tension in everyone's stomach must be wrenching. Deep down, there's great deal of anxiety and fear in everyone's gut!
Regardless, this is the price to pay for long term trend trading - no risk, no gain. The greater the risk, the greater the gain. The question that is worth asking, which has been asked by me almost every time, and whenever the market is at a top showing a reversal - what's the risk of the last 10% gain worth?
Anyway, back to the point - if you are not sure of yourself, if you are new, and if you have a lot of money tying up in stocks presently, you should take a look at yourself in the mirror and ask what are you wearing currently... are you wearing a TA costume while you know you have been an FA guy all your investing life; or if you are wearing a FA gown while you know you have been practising TA and market momentum all these while.
Whatever you are wearing, and however much understanding of the "other" school of market approach you think you know, just be aware of this self-inflicted malaise - the person whom you are going to convince will turn out to be YOU yourself, which, by definition, will turn out to be an unsound advice and/or unwise action...
...because, in reality, we will never go to a lawyer for dental advice whilst a dentist, I believe will never go to a lawyer for medical advice.
...so, be wise - choose whom, where and how you seek your market advice, look into the mirror wisely.
ps: what is the definition of a MEANINGFUL correction?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 539
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 10:19 am: |
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hello HC Long time no see
what is the definition of a MEANINGFUL correction?
Like most of our language that statement is meaningless - because it depends on the context (external and internal: geno & phenotype).
I think the point you are making is one has to respond how one sees it - and if one responds inappropriately then you have to learn some new skills to survive in the paddock (or Jungle) out there ~ rather than blame your situation on some "expert" who cant be bothered to fix it for you.
Trust you care to hang around and can ignore the "whatever #@$%^&*()" also inhabiting the paddock.
Happy trading 
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 782
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 01:33 pm: |
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Welcome Back HC
Your timing is impeccable to arrive back here at a time when the market is a little shakey.
We haven't had a meaningful correction for quite a while, but i would expect the trend line to be broken or at least tested ,to call it a meaningful correction.
What ever happened to mclaren's site.
Did he lose his spot on cnbc ?
log
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2744
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 01:58 pm: |
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TH,
1) the definition of a meaningful correction like most market indicator is relative. One has to read and use it "relatively" to get meaning out of it. Perspectives in terms of magnitude and time are keys in getting a sensible conclusion... I would let the attached chart do my talking for me. Take a look.
2) LEI was chosen because its market "behaviour" was most enlightening and frankly it was one of the clues to my recent timely exit of the market. Although LEI is just one stock, but it really illustrates well the manic speculative zeal. Irrational exuberance, so said Big Al...
3) At this point, and in hindsight with last night's US market performance, I am not sure if there will be enough bulls comes Monday to duel it out with the bears - those intend to hold for the long haul I believe will be due for some testing moment, probably one of the most challenging periods they are going to face in the last 3.5 years. And here's the BIG question again - even if the bulls were to win at the end of this battle, how much more can they expect to gain from the market?
If they think about it and see the whole matter "relatively", in terms of risk and reward, in terms of percentage gain and loss, in terms of stock pricing, earning, and potential return in the next one year or to nth year, I hope they can see they are setting themselves up to "maximum risk" and for... frankly very low return - if they were to see the return in terms of capital appreciation and dividend payout. But then hey I am sure they know what they are doing FA wise, after all they are the practitioners and experts.
4) Just in case people have filled their eyeballs with $$$$ and see nothing else, the global risks had risen tremendously in the last few months. To name a few, risk of YEN carry trade unwinding (and collapsing?), risk of inflation, risk of geopolitical instability, risk of China suffering further meltdown... and the ultimate risk of current abundance of cheap money and liquidity drying up - this will be the BLOW to every market, be it commodity or equity!
Can they see what cheap monies is doing to the whole system? Record breaking LBO. Private equity funds roaming the land looking for kills. Massive movements of funds and hot monies are being shifted from market to market seeking higher yield and return... and the uncontrollable derivative market, especially in this tightly linked internet driven global market!
Read this: there WAS a GLOBAL SYSTEMIC failure when SSE plunges 9% a couple of days ago! Get a perspective and significance of its impact... as of today we are still reading the US market suffering from the tremor from that trigger quake.
In my very simplistic observation and conclusion - the global financial system is currently sitting precariously near the edge of the cliff, no one can rule out any further shock from Asia or from the USA. No one! After the event last week, this risk has increased many folds especially now that most people had seen it and experienced it - it has become a probability, not a possibility anymore.
It has now become a question of WHEN and not IF.
Really!
ps: How do you tell a market blow off when you see one?
LEI Daily
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2745
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 02:03 pm: |
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MS,
My timing of return? It's all planned... my altruistic nature (wow!) makes me want to make this wake up call to the uninitiated so they can save their $$$ and life... 
Of course when it doesn't play out as planned, I won't take any responsibility of what I'd said... as usual.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 785
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 02:27 pm: |
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Well say what you are trying to tell all the mums and dads out there HC.
SELL ALL ON MONDAY AT THE OPEN AND SIT BACK AND WATCH THE CARNAGE
If ya gunna be the bearer of enlightenment and news HC, be fairdinkum about it,cut the fluff so to speak.
What about mclaren ? Poor buggar was blowing off last year from memory but it blowed right up another 20 % .
Where was all this takeover money in 01 or 03 or even 05.
You been using that colour copier again HC ???
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2746
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 02:40 pm: |
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MS,
DON't PUT WORDS INTO MY MOUTH. I DIDN'T SAY THAT! IT'S THEIR MONEY, THEY DO WHAT THEY LIKE. You dig?
All I am saying is they look at the other side of the coin and look at risk more closely!
Personally and frankly, for my self interest, I prefer they stay on and keep their money in stock!
And for you, I suggest you take a contrarian stand against what I'd said - keep all your money in stocks!
Just do it! Make your day and make my day!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 926
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 04:16 pm: |
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http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/ 
http://sttc.net.au/~stever
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2747
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 04:29 pm: |
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I will be moving on from here for a while and wait for event to turn... let the market show us what lies ahead; until then, it's no point wasting time on what if and what not... there're more profitable and productive things to do other than trying to convince others why being a vegetarian is good for them.
1) Question: would you call that a blow off week for DJI? If it is, what kind of scenario will unfold? If not,... what would you do to gain from this?
2) NASD has been the momentum loco for the US market in this round of rally, now bet your money and your life on NASD COMP to break back and rise further... be my hero!
Question: IF (if..IF!) the NASD goes under, what'd you reckon it will do to ASX? Nothing? Place your bet! Something? Go find out! And go tell your wife that HC here says don't your life but you'd decided to take him on... coz you feel like a winner and a hero!
DJI Weekly
NASD Comp Weekly
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 786
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 03, 2007 - 05:17 pm: |
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Thanks Perler
I had a link to reports but it stopped working ?
See ya later HC, i won't annoy you anymore, too busy buying up all the bargains out there.
You still put up a good chart of historical events.
( don't take too much notice of dug, he got vwapped a while back , poor guy , and there is no known cure for his problem yet , csi are looking into it around Bundaberg, first thoughts were it had something to do with toads )
Hang around and have a chat to Rudy and Ody etc.
Cheers
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2754
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 02:52 pm: |
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It seems I have a problem distancing myself from this place... doh! 
This is one of the potential trigger for a reduction in liquidity... now coupled this with the US subprime rate problem, we are looking at a double whammy here.
US dollar plunges against yen
THE US dollar sank to near three-month lows against the yen in early Asian trade today as speculators scaled back riskier investments following recent volatility on financial markets.
Dealers said the Japanese currency benefitted as dealers unwound risky carry trades, whereby investors borrow in Japan at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding areas.
The US dollar fell to 115.52 yen in Tokyo morning trade, its lowest level since December 8, down from 116.79 in New York late on Friday.
"The Japanese yen continues to benefit from pick-up in risk aversion following the losses in global equity markets, which has encouraged investors to pare back their exposure and unwind yen-funded carry trades," National Australia Bank strategist John Kyriakopoulos wrote in a morning note.
The US dollar's tumble came as US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson headed for Japan in a trip that will also take him to South Korea and China this week for talks on global financial imbalances.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au
/story/0,20867,21325937-31037,00.html
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 333
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 03:29 pm: |
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Hi HC,
We're glad that you are not distancing yourself. Looks like the global market participants have forgotten where they put their anti-depression medication. They are really getting anxious right now with our market being down 121 points as we post.
It certainly is great being on the sidelines watching this spectacle.
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perler59
Member
Username: perler59
Post Number: 928
Registered: 09-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 03:31 pm: |
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