Archive through March 08, 2007

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peterloh

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Post Number: 2406
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 11:11 am:

MS,

Many of the companies gave a good account of themselves recently, like TTS,TSE,HSP.The recent retracement give me another opportunity to top up.It is often when the pain is greatest that we feel that we cannot stand it any more that the market shows sign of turning around.Like you I could have acted hastily by getting back into the market today.As I have sold some of my SFH , TAL and TWR last week, I thought this money should be back in the market where it belongs, but to proven companies and companies with very good growth prospect.If I am wrong I will be punished by my action.

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

msparks

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Post Number: 794
Registered: 10-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 11:13 am:

There is always margin Dug
Besides, i just LUV HC's charts, they are so technical, and well, he might pick out a few i can margin into to help with the loss.
Down about $10,000 bucks of profit,3500 one day and 2500 yesterday, plus 3000 in another and then there is the super fund, diving away with another 5% of the profits.
Ya would not believe it, i was offline all day yesterday with modem problem.

I was thinking wes,dbref,wdc,ox,bjt,had fallen too far,but mre is had a big hit today but went up and up and up so it has to come back bit i guess.

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 2407
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 11:14 am:

Well come back, HC. I have always enjoy your post although we have our slight disagreement.Looking back, I think it has more to do with the time frame than any thing else.

Good Luck

holycow

Member

Post Number: 2762
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 11:24 am:

MS,

I will/can never win talking to you - you remind me of the weeds in the paddock - they sway with the wind, depending on where it is blowing from. Right now you are grasping for air or any form of support you can get, but once the market turns a wisp bullish, you will switch over and forget the pain and lesson you are going through now. I suggest you seek wisdom from those with strong conviction in FA/buy-and-holders because in the long run, they always win. If they don't win in 5 years, then they will in 10 years time; if not, 20 years, or for as long as the company doesn't go bankrupt! They have a winning formula and you should learn to id winners and bet on them!

I have written a lot of thing(y?) in this and the other thread and with charts, and opinions and yet you ask me the same thing again(?)... see what I mean? Rudy has given you the golden chalice on a silver platter last week, but you chose to ignore him, instead you'd chosen the poison chalice and drank from it!

We see what we want to see. You see what you want to see and believe in. You don't really want my opinion - you only want my agreement. Take a look at your chart, can you see the two very long red candles? Do they look like an upright wall? Or a cliff? Do you think the bulls can recover their position last week by a single leap? Or a few leaps? Just count how many little green candle they took to reach the top, and then ask again - can they do that in a few days or in a few big push? After the recent rout?

Then you draw your own conclusion - this is the only way to do it - your own conclusion, so you will/can believe in it! It's yours and no one can take that away from you. Give it a try I am sure you'll find this to be rewarding personally because win or lose, you'll learn from the experience.

Cheers.

ps: watch today's market behaviour before/near when the Asian markets open... they are the contagion, remember?

pps: ASX today, a rocket needs plenty of fuel, watch the fuel level. Holding a bearish slant, I see the run up today and probably the next two days to be opportunity to sell at a rebound high rather than a buying opportunity... weird huh? Sorry to disappoint you without a proper response.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 2763
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 12:08 pm:

Peter,

Thanks.

Once a bear, always a bear... that's me!

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

spider

Member

Post Number: 2567
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 01:40 pm:

Hi HC,
it is good to see you back.

We look at the markets through different eyes but, I have to ask if you really meant this.........

I suggest you seek wisdom from those with strong conviction in FA/buy-and-holders because in the long run, they always win. If they don't win in 5 years, then they will in 10 years time; if not, 20 years, or for as long as the company doesn't go bankrupt! They have a winning formula and you should learn to id winners and bet on them!

or were you exaggerating just to make a point?

spider (who has not heard anyone advocate buy and hold in a very long time)

holycow

Member

Post Number: 2764
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 02:13 pm:

Hi Spider,

Yes, I was exaggerating. But if the market were to go through another bear cycle and we are back to a period not unlike 2002-2003, I would mean every single word I said. I would encourage Mark to sell his undies for cash and invest in the bluechips that he likes. Even LEI!

I have attached a chart I have drawn up to encourage a mate of mine in the recent peak to sell. The objective is to show him it is doable and is quite profitable to trade the intermediate cycles. Selling in the last couple of weeks is not the end of the world but a release of his cash so he can be well placed to take advantage in the next cycle - with this PROVISO - ie, the market doesn't go over the cliff and turn into the bear phase.

This probably would help MS too - to see why there's no hurry to get back into the market if he can SEE the BIGGER PICTURE in a slightly LONGER timeframe.

Cheers.

XJO Daily

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 2765
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 05:00 pm:

Let's continue our discussion in this thread of what to do next from TA's angle, or rather from my personal angle of the market and my decision in the last one day and the next couple of days. I won't be doing this again because it is time consuming and frankly such self confession can be quite unprofitable on a personal basis.

1) my view on the current market rebound, staying objective... I'd rate it to be an above average recovery. The volume was strong and the turnover decent. Frankly I won't complain about today's market. In terms of missing out on the rebound, well, I'd just sent a note to this mate telling him to see the missed opportunity as "insurance premium" so we can be surer if we were to re-enter long.

2) it's worthwhile to consider today's rebound with respect to the recent decline (perspective... perspective!) - thus far the market has dropped about 7%, a recovery of 2% is good if not respectable. But we, or rather I want to see a few things before joining some quick bulls in proclaiming it's a success... not yet!

I want to see these:

3) follow up buying in ASX after today
4) tonight's European and the US market reaction, if they will react/recover like the rest of region; if they do, I like to see the magnitude and scale
5) the culprit of the current rout is SSE, if you were to look at SSE today, it has one of the weaker recoveries in the region (probably this is due to its late start), but frankly, anything less than 1.5% will be considered as weak from my angle

6) after tonight, I like to see followup buying/rally in the rest of the region, esp the Japanese and the Chinese market. This is just to make sure the rebound is not of the dead cat variety.

7) There will be one more test I'd like to see but I won't reveal it here - this is basically the last test if all the above conditions are met. This test is to avoid re-entering the market too early, and frankly not a big deal other than providing some comfort to myself.

Ok, that's it. My rationales. Right or wrong at this point is not that big a deal as long as I can gain from the market at the end.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 2766
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 05:01 pm:

AP Indices 6/3/07

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

hailoh

Member

Post Number: 224
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 06:17 pm:

HC, can you post the site address for the regional indices - I have sought but haven't found. Thanks

holycow

Member

Post Number: 2767
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 06:19 pm:

H,

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

tony_m

Member

Post Number: 691
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 06:20 pm:

HC,
I have been out of the market for a little while having been fully in and watching like a hawk until the 28th Feb when I offloaded 50% of the portfolio late in the day, educated guess and lucky this time. Offloaded the rest in the next day or so so was only slightly singed this time unlike May last year when I made the wrong call and held on too long, ended up a bit charred but overall ok viewing the longer term.

Although very risk averse I decided to go back in today on the basis of the early price action plus a good look at the OS potential to torpedo things. Went in initially with the strategy of a day trade or a tightly controlled ongoing trade if the OS signs continued to look ok as the day unrolled.

The signs continued to look ok as the day evolved with Asia and the US futures looking positive and the Europe vibes seemingly positive. So I am still in with 5 stocks and 40% in cash.

I also wanted to pickup some solid dividends on offer if possible all other things being equal to help the balance and the imputation credits for the tax man. Finished up 2.6% for the day excluding the ex-dividend tomorrow.

I had expected to be on the sidelines for another 3 or 4 weeks as of yesterday so this was a radical backflip. May still get singed but I thought the risk was containable....Tony_M

holycow

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Post Number: 2768
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 06:44 pm:

Tony,

How are you? It's been quite a while... since we last exchanging view.

This time around, the weekly RSI stands out like a sore thumb showing the market way way overbought - something I had not seen for quite while - funny not many paid attention to it!

I agree with your observation mostly - the market is looking bullish if we were to look at it in isolation. But at this point in time I am still (very) wary of the US market because of its recent test of new high and the subsequent break down, I'd like to see it stabilising first (NASD composite needs to show a weekly white candle at least).

If there were to be a spoilsport for the current recovery if there is one, it would be the US market. I am attributing last few months' ASX rally to the pull of the US market. If they were to fail, I doubt if ASX is able to rally on its own.

...hence my caution.

Cheers.

XJO Daily

Crazy Forum Word Ban!

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

tony_m

Member

Post Number: 692
Registere