TFE- Territory Iron

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rockon

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Post Number: 148
Registered: 08-2003

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Sunday, March 18, 2007 - 02:16 pm:

Hello All.... This mob seem to have done everything right so far from sorting out and utilising existing infrastructure to making agreements with their "neighbours" in regards to looking for their prospective metals on each others property to agreements with traditional land owners to agreements with marketing firms with predominately Asian contacts.

All this is fast coming to fruition with mining scheduled to start in May and the first boatload of ore scheduled to be on its' way to Asia in August.

Although I have'nt seen it, Fat P have supposedly done a report on this one and a projected EPS of around $1.20 was supposedly mentioned along with a buy recommendation for their members. I have absolutely no idea what an EPS of $1.20 means to the share price but it sure looks impressive.

Territory has also come up on the radar of our resident Cosmic Cycle Analysis expert with things looking to be really cooking around November, so that's good enough for me to want to hang onto this one for a while. Although it's not my usual trading style, I haven't seen anything to suggest to me that this isn't a fairytale in progress but DYOR as I think this one is definately worth a look and I'm probably a bit too biased for my own good anyway.

I Hold and good luck to any other holders.... cheers.

rockon

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Post Number: 152
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007 - 04:58 pm:

Hello All.... A strong move today after an announcement confirming much of previous post. My apologies for only posting half a chart last week. The date on the chart is about right so I must have scrolled it across for some reason.Not a deliberate ramp though. Still, it doesnt much matter now, with TFE soaring into blue sky.A small retrace from about now will suit us fine thanks.More positive news destined to come from this mob in the very near future

rockon

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Post Number: 155
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Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 07:44 pm:

Hello All,

Whichever way one looks at recent action, whether you see a consolidation or a pullback in progress, this one is setting itself for possibly another run towards $1 before mining commences in May.Management also talking aggressive exploration program and doubling of resource (I hope anyway)

encephalon

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Post Number: 89
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Friday, April 06, 2007 - 05:02 am:

Hi Mick,

I just finished modelling the Frances Creek mine to ascertain how much it's worth using fairly conservative assumptions. The link to the pdf is below. If anyone wants the Excel model itself to tweak the assumptions, drop me a message.

http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2007/04/tfe.pdf

Regards,

Paul

_____________________________________________
ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US

"Idoicy : never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups" - A de-motivational poster.

http://waterstone.wordpress.com

rockon

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Post Number: 156
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Friday, April 06, 2007 - 06:50 am:

Hello Paul,
Obviously a lot of work gone into that spreadsheet.Well done.

Usually the extent of my analysis is finding a favourable chart followed by reading all the co. announcements for the past 6 months or so and looking to see if their "story" is a good one. If their name pops up in a mag or newspaper while I'm doing this, all the better but alas, my ignorance is holding me back here, because I really don't understand what the s/sheet is trying to say.I can understand tons, costs etc. but can the bottom line (NPV) be equated into a share price?. Is there any relation between your NPV and the current market cap?. If production went from 1.5mtpa to 3mtpa (as they are hoping to do) would all the figures on the s/sheet simply double?.Does the info on this s/sheet sway you one way or another as regards to buying shares in this co.?.

Sorry, I've waffled on a bit where all I had to type was the last sentence up above.

As far as current s/p is concerned, I still think its only consolidating before another positive move and in any case, we haven't got long to wait before things start happening.

Thanks for posting as it's nice to talk to someone besides myself and if you want more practice with spreadsheets, how about you apply for the position of permanent scorekeeper on the weekly stockpicking comp. LOL.

Good luck with your trading.. regards Mick

encephalon

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Post Number: 90
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Friday, April 06, 2007 - 11:56 am:

Thanks, I'm surprised this stock hasn't generated more interest. Read through the announcement and it looks ludicrously cheap given the earning potential of this project. Just out of curiosity, how did you come across this stock?

What I've done in the spreadsheet is allocate production across the mine's expected life.

The NPV at the end is the sum of all future predicted earnings from the mine, and (on the assumptions used) the value of the Frances Creek mine is around $3.70 per share, which suggests the market capitalisation today is only a fraction of what the company is worth (if this mine goes ahead).

If they commissioned another mine or increased the reserves from the current 9.7 million tonnes, then that would bump up the value of the stock considerably.

If they were to increase the *rate* of mining to 3mtpa, then the resource would be depleted in perhaps 3 instead of 5 years - it wouldn't double the value because the same amount of ore is sitting in the project. So the figures wouldn't change all that much.

I don't know a great deal about the company, but from what brief analysis I've done, it looks very good. The market for iron ore is lucrative at the moment, with contract prices around US$80/t for Fines (30% of output) and higher for Lump (70% of output). Once this mine comes on steam, the stock should be in for a fairly sizeable re-rating.

I'd buy purely on the premise that it's sitting on an odd $800m cash cow of ferrous metal. Perhaps a mini-Fortescue in the making?

Cheers,

Paul

P.S. I would apply for the post, but} I've got a 15 year love/hate relationship with Microsoft Excel, the extra 'practice' would be a bit trivial.

(Message edited by Encephalon on April 06, 2007)

rockon

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Post Number: 157
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Friday, April 06, 2007 - 02:56 pm:

Paul,

There were some terrific short term,chart based trades around Oct '06 to Jan '07. This came about after an eyeball scan of all stocks between 10 and 30 cents.This is my favourite and most successful of scans.

If a person trades a particular stock more than two or three times in succession and all trades have been successful then they (or at least "I") start to look a bit deeper than a daily chart.I got the impression that these guys knew what they wanted, knew what they were doing and more importantly, knew just what was and wasn't in place for a quick trip to production.A snippet in the Sunday paper finally swayed me from short term trades to a Medium term train ticket.

I am also at a loss to explain why this one has attracted very little interest. Even on other forums, where I am only a lurker, there seems to be little or no discussion.Maybe the Uranium juggernaut has fully committed most money, although I recently read that Iron Ore is yet to have its' day in the sun so possibly other resources may seem a bit shinier to some at the moment.

I'm glad that your figures suggest a current undervalued share price. As I said earlier, I can't make head or tail as to what the s/sheet means but as far as a positive chart, positive story, positive announcements and now , some positive analysis from you, then I think we have definitely picked a winner... Good luck.

Regards.

rockon

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Post Number: 159
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Wednesday, April 11, 2007 - 06:51 am:

Keep the faith brother, it's only a speed hump.I'm very tempted to top up in the low to mid 60s but I'll just let it ride I think.

rockon

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Friday, April 13, 2007 - 05:27 pm:

A close above .67 will complete the upsloping triangle and signal a continuation upwards I think.But todays' close broke out of a flag signalling a continuation. All in all, a positive feeling for next week.D.Guppy's MMA also looking the goods so I'm happy going into the weekend.
Cheers.

encephalon

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Post Number: 91
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Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 08:00 pm:

Doing very well this week, took 80 without so much as a passing glance. I'm just kicking myself for only getting 40% of my line last week

Paul

rockon

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Post Number: 165
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Friday, April 27, 2007 - 09:56 pm:

Eeeewwwww, can't be happy with that last candle, eh. Still, the last 2 weeks or so have been excellent, so a well deserved rest for a few days won't hurt.

Can't see this s/price collapsing in a hurry as just about everything is in place and almost ready for commencement of mining in May.

rockon

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Post Number: 166
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Saturday, May 05, 2007 - 12:52 pm:

Hopefully a bounce from oversold and with a bit of luck, will go on to form a higher high.

Barring any startup problems, there isn't a lot of fundamental reasons to hold this one back. Ah well, fingers crossed now.

rockon

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Post Number: 167
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Thursday, May 31, 2007 - 12:13 pm:

Fingers have been crossed for a month now and S/P is on the move again so hopefully it's party time. A positive update from Fat/P hasn't hurt the cause either... cheers.