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     rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 365
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 07:36 am: | 
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Hi Eugenio,
Thanks mate. It was a pretty unfair bet. I think you will probably look a lot more closely about previous levels of resistance in future won't you. They are powerful stuff.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2809
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 08:16 am: |
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1)The US market last night... it seems the tech sector has failed to perform. Take a look at the vol and compare the one I'd posted yesterday - on a down day, the vol spiked up, on an up day (previous day), the vol was lame. Tells a lot on supply and demand and buying selling psyche.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2810
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 08:26 am: |
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Prime for subprime...
..."The interest rate differentials remain attractive and important," said Schweisguth, who added that in the absence of a new "stock market collapse the carry trades should continue."...
...For the pace of activity in carry trades to reach the levels of earlier this year, "there would have to be a return to a trend toward higher interest rates in the United States,"
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2811
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 08:39 am: |
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XJO Daily
1) Tony, I took your finding, did a continuos fibo series, and found this - it seems 161.8% carries some special meaning to the ewave people. My take is even if the market were to rebound and move higher, they would have a big hurdle to cross at 6100. That will be the best the bull can aim for this round.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2812
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 08:54 am: |
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Alan Kohler on Private Equity Funds (PEF)...
In my view, part of the onus is on the clients of the private equity funds; that is the people shovelling the money into them — the super fund trustees... A.Kohler
*** ever thought about why these super fund trustees are so keen to pile their money in to PEF? Well, one thing for sure, the current safer avenue for a decent/good/acceptable level of return (read: equity investment) is not good enough for them. How else can you explain they NOT putting more money into the stock market?
The other way to look at their lending activities is they see the stock market to be too pricey, with diminishing opportunity for capital appreciation moving forward.
Think these are fair assumptions? If you do, then you should ask this - if the big monies are not putting their $$$ into the market, what will move the market higher? If they are investing their money somewhere else, why won't you do like wise?
If you don't agree with the above assumptions, then, stay happy... keep investing 
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 627
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 09:02 am: |
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HC
Well, now I can add pain as an indicator!
The subprime mortgage debacle is starting to have real implications for major finance companies and its far from over. I'll post the list of companies affected (so far) under XAO.
Re the fibo series, is there historical data for previous bull markets?
Kate
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2813
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 09:17 am: |
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XJO Daily 2003-2007
1) Kate, not sure what you meant. But I went back and did a different fibo series as indicated by the pair of red arrows. It seems the MAJOR levels (appearing as supports) are quite clearly indicated by the fibo set of "natural numbers". So in this case 6100 will be a tough hurdle this around, but should the bulls crack it, don't miss out the ride.
Cheers.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2814
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 09:32 am: |
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The Aussie Low Doc tales of "no worry"...
The biggest danger in Australia, according to Mr Jeffery, is the increasing appetite of the nation's big banks for low-doc lending, and their failure to minimise risk through securitisation deals where home loans are repackaged as securities and sold to investors.
The banks, furthermore, do not have the purpose-built financial models to properly assess low-doc risk...
... and so, "they" said they are safe! Doh!
http://www.news.com.au/business/story
/0,23636,21379260-462,00.html
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas
Post Number: 366
Registered: 11-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 09:58 am: |
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Hi HC,
That's a very good chart that you posted in your post number 2813. The interesting thing is that in each case the up leg went through the 61.8% fibo level but came back down to it (roughly) for the bounce.
There is no doubt that the market has the ability to breach the 6100 mark given enough time. If you continue the current bull market channel upwards then by the end of the year it's upper border will be around the 6800 mark. I'm going out for the day but will provide a more accurate figure tonight.
Naturally all bets would be off if we slipped into a bear market but I think this bull still has some legs in it and we're going through one of the natural cycles of nature.
As can be seen from the chart below a reasonably safe entry would be once it broke back up through the 30 week moving average. That's speaking purely from a medium to long term investor's perspective.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2815
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 10:05 am: |
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Ken
Your XJO short... 45 points. That's quite a bit of meat in this trade, man!
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 447
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 11:55 am: |
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HC,
130 points ATM, but only $10 per point. The intention is longish term - its there in case of a bear market. Entered based on the 61.8% to 66% retrace of the leg down and got lucky so far.
Ken
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philr
Member
Username: philr
Post Number: 153
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 12:57 pm: |
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Subprime is he related to Optimus Prime commander of the heroic Autobots and the main protagonist from the Transformers.
Phil
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2816
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 02:37 pm: |
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Ken,
Well done! 130 points!
Philr,
Nice try, but... failed! You get a "C" from me for being brave enough to try.
The correct answer: Subprime is related to Prime computer, a mini computer that went defunct in the '90s, which again was related to Digital which again was a distant relative to IBM at semi conductor level, once a long long time ago... eon ago! :-}
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2818
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 14, 2007 - 02:58 pm: |
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AORD 5-day
1) get a perspective of last 4 days + today's index performance... it took 4 days of crawling to reach a high and then it took just 10 minutes to "waste" it.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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