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     muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 291
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 28, 2007 - 10:49 am: |  
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Santos appears to be going through a re-rating
Weekly Chart:
Volume also appear to be on the move.
If it breaks resistance at approx 11.37, and then retraces to that level while respecting it (resistance becoming support) we could be in for a powerful move.
STO has historically outperformed the XJO, although in recent times is rate of out performance has been trending down. Through the re-rating process we can see the relative performance of STO to the XJO has crossed its 26 EMA.
STO:XJO Relative Chart (Weekly)
Could it be that since the AGL/Origin discussions seem to have broken down that people are factoring in a take over premium into STO? Even though it has a government collar around 15% of its stock (not sure of the actual percentage)
Any views?
Holding a few STO in any event.
Regards
Muzza
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 292
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 01, 2007 - 10:11 pm: |
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Update: DAILY Chart
Today was an interesting day for STO - Gapped up to 11.88 before closing at 11.62.
Volume was well above 9 day volume MA.
Lets see if it retraces and hold above the old resistance line (becoming support) on the weekly chart (first post) - and if it does we might see some nice action.
It wasnt that long ago that STO could be picked up relatively inexpensively (and safely) on the double bottom @ 9.32
Holding
regards
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 293
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 03, 2007 - 01:35 am: |
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STO closed at 12.09 today with a very dominant candle.
Volume pretty good as well on this run up - 10.238m, well above the 9 day ema.
Will update the chart from a weekly perspective at the close of the week.
There is a gap on the daily between 11.24 and 11.62 that shows over the past few days. Perhaps we will see a small re-trace.
In any event the chart is looking very nice on the daily and the incomplete weekly.
regards
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 294
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 04, 2007 - 10:34 pm: |
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Update on STO:
Having a nice conversation with myself
Anyway,...GO you good thing!!
Weekly:
Might augment the long hold on this with derivatives to enhance yield - buy the next dip so long as it respects support.
regards to those reading
Muzza
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 297
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 25, 2007 - 08:46 pm: |
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Still Going to Plan (for anyone watching)
Weekly Chart:
Regards
Muzza
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trader888
Member
Username: trader888
Post Number: 6
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 11:08 pm: |
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Hi Muzza,
STO , WPL ,ROC show bullish chart ..Sentiment on oil bullish..
attached charts
Regards
Henry
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trader888
Member
Username: trader888
Post Number: 7
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 11:22 pm: |
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trader888
Member
Username: trader888
Post Number: 8
Registered: 07-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 11:31 pm: |
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interesting to see what happen to STO as it as it approach its all time high . weekly chart
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 301
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, June 18, 2007 - 10:26 pm: |
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Well we are now through the all time high with a close today at $13.97
STO did open at $14.15 today, so the close was weak (note volume was below average today in this stock).
I guess after such a nice run we might well expect a retracement - I'd be looking for one that respects the zone between 13.3 to 13.5
Lets see what the chart looks like when we have a complete candle for this week
regards
Muzza
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 302
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, June 23, 2007 - 10:03 am: |
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STO Update - Weekly Chart:
STO has blown through previous ATHs and exhibited a very strong close this week at 14.52
Volume a little down when compared to recent levels, but the 9Wk VMA still trending up nicely.
Given this powerful move, if we see a retracement once would like to think that this would respect the support zone shown between the two horizontal dotted lines, viz between 13 and 13.44 - that zone being the distance between the body and the shadow of the previous ATH.
Notice how when STO broke through the downward trend line (down sloping blue trend line), we saw a very dominant candle and then a bit of a pause. When it broke up again that candle rested on what I now see as the baseline of the new support zone.
Quite pleased with the result to date on this, and wish everything else was going to plan this well!!
regards
Muzza
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 176
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 05, 2007 - 10:49 pm: |
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Didn't they put out an announcement that they are appealing the 15% cap on ownership ?
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 304
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 08, 2007 - 12:07 pm: |
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yes they did coyotte
Its on the ASX - the announcement was made on 15th June.
In that announcement it stated that "The South Australian Government has indicated that it expects to complete its internal review by 31 July 2007 and for the government to announce its intentions within two months of finalising the review"
The 15% ownership cap by any one shareholder has held STO back - if its lifted then STO may well be fundamentally re-rated
muzza
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 305
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 15, 2007 - 01:41 pm: |
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Weekly Chart Update on STO:
STO has reacted off the support zone identified earlier, with volume below its 9Wk SMA.
The close was not particularly strong, and the relatively large shadows (compared to the body of the candle) suggests no decisive commitment one way or the other between the bulls and bears.
This weeks action should give us insight as to whether or not the position could be expanded or partial profits locked in.
The long term view on oil/gas/energy does suggest "long".
regards
Muzza
PS does anyone subscribe to the "Peak Oil" concept
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 306
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 06, 2007 - 05:34 pm: |
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Update:-
STO now sitting at 15.26 - ATH and up 35.64% (80.81% annualised) since we started this thread in April
Weekly:
But volume is not rising in this latest rally, 9wk Volume MA is trending down.
Still holding
regards
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 915
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 27, 2008 - 07:19 pm: |
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Hello Guys,
This has been a great trade since April 28, 2007 but what goes up must go down and it looks like the market weakness is assisting that....
Weekly chart: Provided price action does not cross neckline then H&S peice target ~ $9.70
Happy trading DYOR
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 307
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 12:50 pm: |
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Hi Team,
For all sorts of reasons I havent been able to participate in the forum for awhile.
Anyway - regarding STO - its now again at all time highs although that long upper shadow could be a bit ominous.
If STO retraces and respects the upper trend line then it might run again - given the strengths in the all the oilers this might be a reasonable projection.
Weekly Chart:
All that being said Colins excellent Trading Diary has warned of a potential Bull Trap emerging when you look at all the major indices.
Tryhay - are you still watching STO? - One of my early failures / regrets was paying too much attention to chart patterns like H&S. I sold RIO on a H&S neckline break, and of course being so "intelligent" I just couldnt be wrong!! - That was at $16!! I am much more comfortable with support & resistance, volume and defined channels
By the way - does anyone subscribe to Peak Oil Theory? - I wont diverge this thread, but am interested to know if there has been any discussion on the forum on this while I have been away.
regards
Muzza
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1054
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 03:51 pm: |
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muzza wrote on Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 12:50 pm:Tryhay - are you still watching STO?
Yes, I closed the short OTM early March and never switch long D'oH.
That weekly STO topping tail does looks bad (EDIT in the daily timeframe looks like an Island Cluster - occurring after a strong trend); and the West Texas Intermediate Crude chart looks due for a pull back to ~ $119. Yes I also subscribe to "Colins excellent Trading Diary has warned of a potential Bull Trap emerging when you look at all the major indices" thank you Colin - a bit cool for shorts but they seem to be the fashion ATM.
I don't think you have missed much whilst you been away muzza - Peak oil is true story & used when FA is getting abit threadbare of "news".
WTIC Daily chart: seems to be forming a "minor" top for a technical retrace?
Am tempted to trade it but will wait for confimation (am short enough ATM)
(Message edited by tryhay on May 25, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1064
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, June 01, 2008 - 11:20 am: |
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tryhay wrote on Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 03:51 pm:the daily timeframe looks like an Island Cluster - occurring after a strong trend
Another gap up this week! (perhaps an exhaustion gap?).
Could be worth a trade over coming weeks....
STO Daily chart: Increasing volatility and whipsawing of the MACD - looks like she is going a WARP speed ATM.
WTIC Daily chart: Currently indicators gone from O'bought to retrace along with price action ~ 50 day MA upcoming?
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1090
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 09:44 pm: |
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It's taken a month but STO has failed support with the list of poor looking indicators becoming long and distinguished...
Daily chart:
Happy trading DYOR
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dennis_menace
Member
Username: dennis_menace
Post Number: 1072
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 01:38 pm: |
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This is my look on Santos Tryhay but like yours it doesn't look good in the short term - downtrend.
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muzza
Member
Username: muzza
Post Number: 311
Registered: 06-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 07:20 pm: |
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A weekly chart view
Could be a Stage 3 top forming on the weekly view, would be looking for a confirmation of stage 2 resumption or stage 4 depending on which end of the channel it breaks through.
**Warning** Note that the last candle is an incomplete week as of today (2/7), so we really need to revalidate the picture at the end of this week
cheers
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1112
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 07:01 pm: |
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FWIW a more recent view of STO confirms the downtrend is established and momentum is slipping away...
STO Daily chart: looks like the 200 D_MA is in its sights IMO
Another one that has been mentioned in dispatches recently (SRL) is also demonstrating poor performance
SRL Daily chart: Target is approaching but not sure it will bounce or power on through
Happy trading DYOR
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