Archive through March 28, 2007
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2921
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 11:03 am: | 
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BOL Weekly
1) this one has too much rationalization in its recent sell-off, thought I'd like to give my perspective. Frankly I see this to be gambling! The odds is actually quite high from my angle. If COA is a mirror, are we seeing and reading the reflection?
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2469
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 12:07 pm: |
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HC,
I disagree with your sweeping statement and your call investors which are getting in BOL as gambling. If that is your accusation,WBC and BT Funds management who are professionals in looking after the public money together with many investors including me as gambling on BOL in this instance.I assured you I have done my research on both FA and TA and I based it on a risk return factor. I admit that at this point it is a higher risk and a higher reward.Your chart does not refer to any track record of the company in the past and what it has achieved. You have not refer to the time frame of the investor and have you research the company's outlook? Is management outlook pessimistic or optimistic that they are able to meet their forecast?.Even if the company does well, I continue to monitor the progress of the company concerned. I beg to differ with you on this occassion.You admitted you were wrong the last 3 years, in an admission to Kate in the "fool in mirror" this morning.What is your track record?Last year you were very negative on CPU too, weren't you, of which I initially bought at $1.80 and very overweight in. It looked like it was going to collapse too, coming back from a high of $10.ody was right when he mentioned horse for course.I am of the opinion that the capitalization of our company in Australia is so small that any fund manager just balancing a portfolio will have an immediate effect on the share price of a company concerned.I am more concern with the actual performance of the company.How can you based on a chart alone to determine the future share price of the company?. Without knowing the objectives and current situation of the traders how do you determined they are not correct in their investment or the decision they made.What is your timeframe?A little restrain from you on your forecast will help, there is no certainty in our prediction especially when we have not considered all angles.You may be likely to be correct in your forecast based on your charts alone but no certainty. If you are really certain with what you are doing, you can always put your money where your mouth is in going short on the share concern.I am sure not all fund managers based their investments on charts alone and also records do not proved that hedged fund managers outperformed fund managers in general.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2922
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 12:34 pm: |
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Peter,
Ok, your disagreement is noted. (Can I say your disagreement is sweeping?) I don't see fund manager like you do, so I guess there's a difference in opinions here - and I am not sure if fund manager by default will always be right!?
Anyway, my comment is based on my TA read and I am looking at it from a buyer's angle, ie, asking myself if I will buy this stock and if I were to buy it, what would I expect to gain. Right now I see it as gambling because the stock price has not really bounced back/away from the support of 3.50 (after 4 weeks). Buying at this price point has the advantage of buying low, but it also carries the disadvantage/risk of being swept away/lower if the price were to collapse past the 3.50 support. Currently the odds is about 50/50 based on stock price performance.
A better buy point would be when the stock price clears the recent peak/resistance of 3.73 - this is the level where the longer term buyers are getting better assurance that the stock price is getting good buying support, and they are not exposed to a potential falling knife.
Now this may not be of any meaning to you if you do not subscribe to TA being a good means to pick stock and/or a good means to enter a particular stock. (What're your charts supposed to mean?)
...and how/when you buy stock is your choice since it's your money, but please allow me the freedom to express myself here. For all we know I may just turn out to be right and save someone some money somewhere.
Cheers.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 323
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 02:32 pm: |
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Boom will Boom.
Eugenio
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philr
Member
Username: philr
Post Number: 158
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 02:45 pm: |
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Boom will go bust its heading down.
From a TA perspective it looks like a short to me. There is no way I would go long.
Phil
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2923
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 03:02 pm: |
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Eblode,
Which one? 
 
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2470
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 04:19 pm: |
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HC,
I am not a fund manager unless you can call looking after my own investments and my trading activities that.
Fund managers can also made mistakes, but you come across in many of your trades with a certain degree of certainty, in many cases often bearish.I have no objection to you expressing your opinion, unfortunately your forecast does not always turned out how you like it to be or the accuracy and the target price you stated.In other words you are so sure of yourself.
You must also have put your money for a short in HSP,it has also not turned out the way you wanted it to be, has it?For the record I am game enough to state that I put my money in HSP at $3.70 when I first posted it.I also have an overweight position in HSP.
I am not certain of the outcome of any of my trades except that I have done some research on both the technical and fundamental aspects and with my time frame and my risk management in place there is a slightly higher degree of probability than an analysis on charts alone.If it does not work out, I move on to the next one, I have build in a risk and reward ratio in my trade.
Just to let you know, your personal outlook had taken a few of the readers along with you to the road of misery. You can continue with this as it is your right, I thought I would let you know how your post come across.I won't go into this any further having conveyed this to you.I apologised if I have offended you but it is only a sincere suggestion that you moderate your approach that the outcome is "likely" and not "absolute" in the use of your language.
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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2924
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 05:19 pm: |
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Peter,
I always believe the readers are wise and it is their duty and responsibility when come to their investment - it's their money and their decision.
I'd like to quote BB's quote here for all to see: Do not blame anybody for your mistakes and failures, so we do not have any misunderstanding here. (just in case, you is not PL but in general, everyone)
One of the reasons why I posted my view this morning is because I had actually received two emails asking me on BOL, whether they should buy the stock after reading some of the posts here. If you read my message and my chart, I have not said people/they should not buy the stock. I was saying they should buy the stock after it has shown some buying strength, ie, buy above 3.73 - if they are buying it for long term. Remember that chart is a weekly chart, it implies long(er) term.
Short term, if they are interested in buying low, today, for example is a good day to buy low - I am sure they can get their stock at 3.50 or below quite easily if they have been watching the price today. But buying in between 3.50 and 3.73 is really not a very good idea as it is simply a "waste" of money, as I see it.
Other than the above, there are other "don'ts"/considerations which I didn't want to go into in my earlier post, ie, a lot has been said about averaging down, avoiding falling knife, W's various stages and his use of MA's, MA cross over, etc... some of these were voiced and agreed by many participants here to be something a trader shouldn't be doing. Now I can't say they are all absolutely true, esp to some one who practises buy and hold long term strategy, but I do feel that they should apply a level of caution in how they choose to enter this stock, if they are not then, I think they have come to the wrong place to learn their trade.
And for those who have been around long enough, they probably should do some revision on some of the do(s) and don't(s) espoused by many experienced forum members here... I am sure there are good reasons why some of these rules have withstood the test of time.
And for those who are here to learn and like FA and buy and hold investment strategy and techniques... there is at least one forum I know where FA rules and practitioners are actively practising their brand of buy and hold FA strategies, and they are doing a good, if not, a great job in their investment. I am sure they will be happy to provide guidance to those who need help.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2925
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 06:17 pm: |
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BOL Daily
1) sorry the timing of this chart is rather awkward but I might as well said what I wanted to say. If future stock price movement were to show I am wrong today, sorry, I will try harder next time. This is how I would approach this stock short term.
2) note many people are hurting by the big red wall formed as result of some big fella exiting the stock - these people will be the potential sellers when the stock rebounds. Depending on their cost, they could potentially be selling from 3.80 onward. The recent 3.73 peak most likely was a result of selling by some of these people. (after they sold out, do you think they will be lining up to get back into this stock?)
3) some may see the range between 3.50-3.73 as some sort of trading range, hence if you are going to buy (low), you might as well wait until the price is really low, say at the lower range and buy near 3.50; at least there's a chance that there are other people who buy low for a short term trade - you get some short term buying support here.
4) at 3.73 - you have a choice of holding on and hoping that the selling is receding and that the stock price would move higher beyond 3.73 for a longer trade/holding. Otherwise, if selling were to appear at 3.73 again and if it again is overwhelming the buyers, you can join the sellers and sell your shares for a profit of 23c, hopefully you can buy back your shares at 3.50 again. Hope this makes sense?
5) beyond 3.73, expect resistance at 3.80, 3.95... it will take substantial buying for the stock price to push beyond these two resistance. But I won't rule out sp moving higher since there are enough big fellas with sufficient $$$ power. The investors will be climbing the real wall of worry here - from 3.80 to 4.32.
6) In general, stock after going through a shock such as BOL would generally go through a period of to-ing and fro-ing (multiple bottoms) before it rebounds. Also, it may be worthwhile to consider what kind of target/profit return you are looking at if you were to buy at, say, 3.50?
7) Today's intraday spike to below 3.50 could be a "good sign" indicating the final "dump" by those who want to exit the stocks. But it's best not to come to this conclusion just after one day. Watch it for a few days first.
HC
"... I believe in Santa!"
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eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 324
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 06:39 pm: |
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Gentlemen,
When I see WESTPAC, AMP, MORGAN STANLEY, COMMONWEALTH
BANK GROUP, all buy into BOL recently and holding 5% of the shares that's good enough for me. So far they ain't bailing out and probably will increase in the near future.
Another golden stock falling down is OKN. Time to get on board.What are your thoughts Peterloh on OKN??
Eugenio
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2927
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 26, 2007 - 09:59 pm: |
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For the record...
... and so I rode the sucker and then I sold the stock near 5.80 and now I think the tide may be changing, and so, I am waiting...
Patiently.
HC
"According to some, reading and believing in what I have written can lead you down the road of misery, hence you are advised to eat more vegetables and drink plenty of water, or you'll end up with a big bad case of constipation..."
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 2929
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: 
Votes: 2
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| | Tuesday, March 27, 2007 - 08:59 am: |
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I think it's fair to say that I have tried to be constructive and objective, or subjectively objective in expressing my view here... and yet, I copped a fair bit of personal description which really has nothing to do with the assessment of this stock.
However, this shall stop. I like to make it clear to everyone that courtesy and respect will be given for as long as they are shown and expressed in the first place.
Conflict is unpleasant. But since I don't go to someone's thread and thrash his opinion, no matter how crappy and damaging financially it could lead others, say, to a miserable 27% loss and loading up for more loss potentially... it really goes against some of the more valuable and prudent rules and advices being espoused in this forum.
I just hope people can open their eyes and call a spade a spade. If I am wrong, ok, I will cop it! This rule shall apply to others as well.
Anyway, in future, I will treat an animal by becoming an animal. Just that we all know what to expect.
HC
"According to some, reading and believing in what I have written can lead you down the road of misery, hence you are advised to eat more vegetables and drink plenty of water, or you'll end up with a big bad case of constipation..."
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