Archive through March 22, 2007

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » The Paddock » The fool in the mirror... » Archive through March 22, 2007

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holycow

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Post Number: 2888
Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 08:25 am:

Check this out. The contrarian market advisers are not happy... they reckon the bulls are too stubborn! :-)

HC

"... I believe in Santa!"

holycow

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Post Number: 2889
Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 08:37 am:

U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average by over 160 points, after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but also opened the door for the central bank to consider risks to the economy on an equal footing with inflation risks.

"That's a relief celebration," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "There is the sense that this is a Fed that could cut rates as well as raise rates."...

*** in a way the bears are beat, the market rallies on a "nothing news", this shows everyone wants a party. Can you imagine what's like if the FEDS were to drop the rate?

Do nothing this time doesn't really mean the FEDS won't raise rate, they just want to look see for more evidence. So the ball is now back on the court of ASX, let's see if the local bulls will show their strut.

I will look for short term long opportunity... still maintaining the market is in a rallying mood to the end of this month. jmv

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HC

"... I believe in Santa!"

eblode

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Post Number: 314
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 08:51 am:

Rudy,
Unless you are made of stone you must be looking to buy at this moment in time. What 3 stocks would you be looking to buy if you were so inclined?
Eugenio

msparks

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Post Number: 827
Registered: 10-2004

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 09:29 am:

Hi Kate,Rudy
""msparks, does any trader ever finish learning or improving their trading technique?""

Kate, I doubt you will learn anything from the discussions re bulls and bears that will assist in any practical trading application.Predictions are for psychics,or sicko's.

Trading is not about knowing what will happen next week or tomorrow, it is about knowing what you will do IF something happens.

Knowing how or when someone else will exit is not really very helpful either, unless you are someone else .

By the way Rudy, when do you re enter the market, at 6100 or 5900 ?
I wrote this yesterday and didn't bother posting but now you have stated you will not re enter i thought i would post this because that is exactly why i was asking the question and what i suspected would happen

Rudy, i think you were spot on to exit and control your position and risk, but as soon as you exit you must have a re entry strategy and admission point where " OK, I was wrong this time, i will continue to ride the trend now", otherwise a 1000 points later you will be sitting there saying," it was too high to enter at 6000 points, why would i risk entering at 7,000 points".
Aligning yourself with XX is a dangerous strategy, he was saying the market was too high 2 or 3 years ago," to protect the new investors ".
One day it will be too high, but predictions are for fools, and being "right" can be costly when there is no right or wrong in "the market" and the Peter Morgan's of this world do not admit they were wrong and tell the poor suckers they advised to invest in bank interest, to buy shares again , but freely admit later they had been long the market because," it was going up wasn't it, der !"

perler59

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Post Number: 938
Registered: 09-2003

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 09:38 am:

McLaren's 1946 theory is looking good so far ...
The Dow only dropped 7%, but heh :-)

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

lafee

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Post Number: 472
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:13 am:

Perler,

What is the logic that we are going to follow a 1946 pattern? I wasn't around in 1946 but I think it would be fair to say the markets are a fair bit different now. Even statistically, if you quantified the pattern, how many samples are you likely to see. How can you then separate what is random from predictive?

These kind of studies tend to tie a trader to a course of action. In their minds they search for reason to back up the grand roadmap. Reality, in their minds, becomes distorted. This is a distraction you do not need.

Cheers Lafee

(Message edited by lafee on March 22, 2007)

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

rdumas

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Post Number: 402
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:16 am:

Hi Eugenio,

As I have said on a number of occasions I won't enter a trade in anything when that stock or index is near the top of it's channel. At present the top of my channel is around 6087 whilst the bottom of my channel is at around 5400. The All Ords as of a few minutes ago was at around 5885. Sure that gives me around 202 points on the upside but it also gives me 485 on the down side. I'm happy to wait until the numbers stack up in my favour.

The market isn't going to go straight up to the top of my channel and then ride along the top channel boundary line. The market will cycle somewhere between the top of the channel and possible around the mid line of the bottom half of the channel. I'm happy to wait until then.

Back to the rest of your question though, some of the stock I like are TSE, HVN, IMD, JBH, NBL, REF, TTS, TRS and WOW. The majority of those are also towards the top end of their channels so I would not be tempted. If I were tempted to have a play it would be a short term trade in something like GUD or I would watch for a breakout of SEK.

By the way I'm not made of stone. People who know me well say that I'm a sensitive. What I am though is very disciplined. You don't become a successful punter by getting caught up in everyone's enthusiasm.

holycow

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Post Number: 2890
Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:31 am:

MS,

You are really impressive with what you have written today... it really tells a lot. You are a bull and Peter is a bull. So is Ody. Among the three of you, I have to say I have plenty of respect and admiration for both of them eventhough there is plenty of disagreement among us. From our exchanges thus far in this forum, they have shown themselves to be real bull and gentlemen.

You? I think you come across as a bull disguised as a weasel carrying a knife and waiting for moment like this to stab those who disagree with you in their back.

... if you think the bears are totally beat today, I think you are jumping to your conclusion.

****

Rudy and Kate,

Just watch this fellow. When you are right he will lick your feet but when you are wrong one day, even though your starting point is to help him (like answering his question), he would never appreciate what you had done for him... like I had said earlier, he is like a weed in the paddock.

Hope you'd learnt from him today how a smart-arse hindsight talker behaves.

HC

"... I believe in Santa!"

rdumas

Member

Post Number: 403
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:35 am:

msparks,

I think that I have very clearly enunciated my re-entry strategy on a number of occasions. But in case you missed it the other times I'll say it again just for you.

As can be seen by the chart below the Australian bull market cycle so far been very well behaved in that it has oscillated within the bounds of a channel. As mentioned in my previous post the market will not go to the top of my channel and trend along it. It will go up and go down. I will not be tempted to re-enter until it gets into the bottom half of the channel. Let me know if that isn't clear enough for you and I'll try using some other explanation.

With regards to aligning myself to any one that definitely isn't so. I mentioned that I was at a seminar and Peter Morgan said something which I thought was worth posting on the forum. If ever I post some one's comments it doesn't automatically mean that every thing that comes out of their mouth automatically becomes my belief system. I later defended him on another thread simply because I felt that some of the things said about him were very harsh and just from the one exposure to him I found him to be a very knowledgable and humble person. I am always inclined to like people in high positions who demonstrate humility just as I am put off by people who have a blown up opinion of themselves.

rdumas

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Post Number: 404
Registered: 11-2006

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Votes: 0


Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 10:46 am:

Hi HC,

Your latest post arrived whilst I was in the middle of replying to msparks. I can understand why you made your comments about him as I was also surprised by the spitefulness in his last posting.

holycow

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Post Number: 2891
Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 11:04 am:

Rudy,

It's through experience. In general I'd always try to maintain a level of courtesy to our forum members. Although I do drop the ball from time to time, I believe this is the first time I write in this venomous way - it makes me feel as low as him.

HC

"... I believe in Santa!"

rdumas

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Post Number: 405
Registered: 11-2006

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 11:10 am:

HC,

The difference in your posting is that you were trying to protect the honour of people who you know and understand post on IC as a helping hand and in the genuine effort to exchange ideas.

holycow

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Post Number: 2892
Registered: 08-2004

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Thursday, March 22, 2007 - 11:11 am:

As an observation, the XJO index is hitting 5940 at a peak, a gain of 1.41% (I think). It broke the recent peak of 5922 which is a good sign, but volume wise it needs to inject more $$$$ to keep it afloat that level... let's watch.

Going back to our initial chart analysis, my own "timing" gauge is sometimes end April to May, so, until that time, the bears are bleeding but not throwing in the towel yet. :-)

Cheers.

HC

"... I believe in Santa!"

msparks

Member