Archive through September 03, 2007
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     captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2666
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 04:51 pm: | 
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Ahoy Holy Cow
In the near term
The greatest FEAR when one goes on the Offensive is to be seen as "Useless"
The greatest FEAR when one goes on the Defensive is to then seem as a coward
In the far term
There is No pressure and therefore by definition
No Fear
How anybody can make a judgement like
"I'll be in this one for the Long term"
I find laughable
The Wind Calls the Tune
Nothing else
You could be a passive investor
ie: Check the newspapers Once a week or Once a month but always do nothing
OR
you could be an active investor
ie: Check the newspapers Once a day and also do nothing
The Entertainment value ALONE is priceless
Ahoy Officer Laffe
Great article
In this modern era the Fed only support markets against the silly bears and panic merchants who know no better
Since Dr Greenspan's watch they seem to leave it up to human endeavour to power things along on at least an Easterly course
As an Old Architect I am a big fan of Ayn Rands book
"The Fountain Head"
Principles are Everything
PS "Long Termers"
How did you ever come up with such a stupid and meaningless timeframe?
If it is not by definition a DISCLAIMER
What does it Mean?
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2667
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 07:03 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Holy Cow
As one of the most respected Chartists on this site
Your fundamentals always need to be checked against the Technical
To list those antiquated figures on the make-up of the XAO is only based on the starting point
When were your figures/ 5's generated?
I do agree that there have been many Sea-Changes over the years
I still remember when BHP was a Miner positioned on the Industrial boards
How crazy was that?
"As BHP goes So goes the Market" they used to say
I also remember when BHP fell out of favour and the Banks took over the lead
"As the Banks go So goes the market" they then used to say
To see who has the Balance of power nowadays it might be best to compare them as in a Race ?
All in the same Seas and all in the same weather conditions
That is what I call "A Race"
As you may see in the above charts
We are back to the good old days when
"The way BHP goes, So goes the Market"
"The Wind Calls the Tune"
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 3015
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 07:19 pm: |
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I have moved the laissez faire discussion to a separate thread under General.
Regards,
Colin
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3100
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 07:37 pm: |
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Here is a link (http://tinyurl.com/3bgclf) to some "light" entertainment, great music, and if you are an American, the fate of the Fed Reserve is in your hand... I mean, in your vote! This guy has promised to shut it down!
Here is a link (http://tinyurl.com/2r8dgc) to a series lesson on "Corrupt Banking System...", sound like some kind of activism but good background on how bank works esp on credit and confidence. This may chew up your ISP data quota, so, be warned.
HC's rules of engagement...
if you leave him alone, he will LEAVE you alone,
if you respect him, he will RESPECT you,
if you insult him, he will INSULT you.
... remember, he's a COW!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3101
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 10:00 pm: |
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Captain,
At this point, I agree with your chart analysis to an extent, ie, with respect to yesterday's price movement. But with regard to its on going trend, I think you are a little too early to come to that conclusion if you don't mind me being direct.
From here moving forward, what matters for BHP is this - if it continues its upward move, it will soon reach its recent peak at around 40.00, at that point, it will be at its crucial inflection point - if the market is good, it will breakout, if it is not, ie, with sellers coming in, what will happen to its price movement?
For BHP in specific, and if it is really the loco that pulls the whole of ASX, - until we reach that point and until the bulls behind this stock show us they have what it takes, I find it hard to conclude the upward trend is certain.
...at a min, BHP has to breakout of 40 first! If it does, it will be a milestone for it to come this far. And at that point, I may/will agree with your current technical observation.
Cheers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Story time!...the other side and a bit of fundamentals...
Yet, technical is only one side of the story, ie, the ASX side of story. Next we still have to deal with the US markets. Like it or not, the US markets had shown us they are the culprit for the demise in ASX in the last two weeks. So, ignoring them is not a good move. And here are some observations:
The US markets did not rally as strongly as ASX. In fact, its volume has been pathetic in the last few days including yesterday's. The explanation - Wall Street is in summer break... (imagine the wallstreeters' pants are on fire and they are still lazying by the beach!)
But the US markets is not all about technicals. It's problem has more to do with some serious fundamental core issues - indiscriminate lending practices, over greedy investors, bad credits and bad money management. These are very serious and deep rooted problems that can't be easily removed or fixed. Even if GWB were to personally get involved.
Instead of fixing the problem, he is compounding the problem by shifting the potential damages from the banks to the people, the tax payers - now, in the USA you are lucky if you owe the bank a lot of money - Captain America will shift the burden from you and distribute it to all your neighbours! All the Americans will share your burden - those who are barely earning enough and are renting will now help to pay off the bad investment decision of those who are earning way above them but who happened to be caught with a bad investment decision! Just Great!
... and if the Americans do not have enough money? No problem, they can borrow more from the Chinese! And the Japanese! And everyone else!
When EVERYONE heard this story, including the global markets, they promptly broke into parties and celebrated bigtime! Including Australia the lucky country, and of course, we too are counting on the Chinese, who are really very nice people, and very generously too - they not only love to lend money to the Americans so the world can continue to have its favourite bull run; they are also very kind to us Aussie too - they just pour money into our pocket in exchange for our dirt,...eh, I mean iron ore, coal, copper.
Yes,... they have very deep pocket, and we,... now have very deep holes! And we are digging more!
Yes,... bless those Chinese who can't hold their blink as good as we Aussie. They always lose out in this game of chicken whenever we want to raise our price of iron ore, coal, etc. We are counting them giving in to us in the next round of negotiation so we can raise another 15% on them!
If we don't get 15%? Well no worry, BHP will still make 40.00 and then 50.00 and then 60.00. There's no reason to believe we can't get another 15% from the Chinese. No way! That's why it makes sense to buy BHP at 38.00, if you were to consider the fundamentals and the long term potential upside -> 60-38=22, 57% more to gain!
... with 15% commodity price rise every year for the next 20 years? You must be blind not to buy the BHP story!
But still, and at the end, and walking into the sunset, with the eclipse of the moon behind us, and with our sweetheart all lovingly and all caringly hugging us, whispering into our ears how romantic the whole scene is, and how heroic we are in getting 15% from the Chinese...
BUT! Wake up! But...the fundamental problem in the USA and the potential credit crunch is still there staring at us, bugging us like the flies that we can never shoo away, and the dung beetles that never leave my poo alone...
THEY ARE STILL THERE! Them nasties are still there!
And it is still not resolved yet! The US$ is still going down the drain, the deficit is still sky high...
Wait!... Did someone say ET call home? Yuck! I have been dreaming!... Doh! Jeeez... Sorry, ziiiipp! I promise there won't be any more bear talk! Scout's honour! See! Three fingers sticking up!
HC's rules of engagement...
if you leave him alone, he will LEAVE you alone,
if you respect him, he will RESPECT you,
if you insult him, he will INSULT you.
... remember, he's a COW!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3102
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 10:26 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/324ke3
Hedge vehicle stalls after breach...
*** good news. It's stalling only, not bankrupt or anything like that. Also, the good thing to know, not all SIV are like Cheyne. No one knows how many Cheynes are out there, but I am sure the number will be very small. I just know it!
The near-shutdown of the commercial paper market has caused serious problems for SIVs and bank conduits, which issue short-term debt and often use it to buy illiquid longer-dated assets, such as bank loans, mortgages and other structured bonds.
It remains unclear how many other SIVs have clauses similar to Cheyne Finance that could trigger a wind-down. But recent SIVs are likely to have seen their assets fall further in value, as their holdings will be focused on the latest issues of asset-backed securities and structured bonds, which have suffered most in the market ructions...
HC's rules of engagement...
if you leave him alone, he will LEAVE you alone,
if you respect him, he will RESPECT you,
if you insult him, he will INSULT you.
... remember, he's a COW!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3103
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 01, 2007 - 10:37 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/32npaf
Liquidity crisis could spark sales...
A LIQUIDITY crisis in the commercial paper debt market could force fire sales of as much as $US43 billion ($52.8 billion) in assets, according to an analysis by the Royal Bank of Scotland...
*** hmmm, I wouldn't consider this to be bad news, because there are worse news out there. $US43bn is chicken feed if you were to look at the big picture - 43bn in 3 trillions is nothing. Really!
Australia? Worst case scenario 1.2bn share by all the banks... relax!
HC's rules of engagement...
if you leave him alone, he will LEAVE you alone,
if you respect him, he will RESPECT you,
if you insult him, he will INSULT you.
... remember, he's a COW!
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bundy
Member
Username: bundy
Post Number: 419
Registered: 03-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 02, 2007 - 07:57 am: |
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Thanks HC.
It's a very brief participation at this point - I just don't have the time and inclination these days, although I must admit that some topics - particularly economics- still get the juices pumping.
Trading these days is merely a hobby - no longer my passion and work.
Life has been good to me - and I've been paying it back since I "retired" in December 2005 by enjoying it to the fullest.
---
Bundy
Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3104
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 02, 2007 - 11:18 am: |
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Bundy,
Well, please by all means jump in when you find certain issue strikes a cord in you. I am always looking forward to your opinion...
Cheers.
HC
...addicted to chart
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3105
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 02, 2007 - 11:27 am: |
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Bundy,
Just come back from reading your piece on laissez-faire... you got my vote!
cheers.
HC
...addicted to chart
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2862
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 02, 2007 - 11:39 am: |
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It is good that Bundy and I agree on all essential points on the subject of Laissez Faire economics
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3106
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 02, 2007 - 11:50 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2mnkkn
THE troubled Macquarie Bank hedge fund Macquarie Fortress has confirmed it has lost more than 27 per cent of its value and stands to lose even more this month as it deals with the continuing credit crisis.
In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange yesterday, Macquarie Fortress Notes director Peter Lucas confirmed the fund's value had fallen to 72.8¢ in the dollar on July 31, falling below its most recent warning on August 6 that the fund would lose up to 25 per cent of its value.
Yesterday Mr Lucas predicted the notes would fall another 1.3¢ in August, taking total losses to almost 30 per cent...
*** red means danger... so is bleeding, and it won't stop until "continuing" stops continuing... but losing 30% is not really that bad a news, comparing with that Basis-winding-up-fund.
HC
...addicted to chart
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2863
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 02, 2007 - 12:44 pm: |
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