Archive through September 05, 2007
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3124
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 03, 2007 - 09:59 pm: | 
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Hilarius,
If you don't like what I am saying here, you can always help yourself to get lost from this thread! You don't have to read what I am saying... really. Still remember the freedom of speech, right of speech crap you espouse no too long ago?
Don't be a bigot!
HC
...addicted to chart
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3125
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 03, 2007 - 11:28 pm: |
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Your greatness is measured by your kindness; your education and intellect by your modesty; your ignorance is betrayed by your suspicions and prejudices, and your real caliber is measured by the consideration and tolerance you have for others.- William J. H. Boetcker
Tolerance is expressed only by the person who holds an open mind on all subjects at all times. - Napolean Hill
*** there is this Chinese and Japanese proverb that goes like this:
* I no naka no kawazu taikai o shirazu.
* Literally: A frog in a well does not know the great sea.
* Meaning: People are satisfied to judge things by their own narrow experience, never knowing of the wide world outside.
If I am pointing my finger only at others, then I am being arrogant... this proverb is posted here to serve as a self reminder that in the whole wide sea of global economies, global markets and international politics, there're so little that we, as an individual investor frog that lives in a well knows. All we can do is trying our best to observe, to understand, to learn and to prepare ourselves with the knowledge that there is so much that we don't know...
We are not problem generators. Neither are we solution providers. It is ludicrous, if not totally self delusional in seeking to provide a solution for a global problem that even the President of the United States, the most powerful man in this world, is unable to solve!
The best we can do? Control what we can control - our own investment.
Being bearish, holding cash, is a solution!
HC
...addicted to chart
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1918
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 12:29 am: |
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HC - from your post 3117 above, of today, 2.27pm:
Last week a transaction was posted in the US SPY options market of an astonishing US$900 million in value. The SPY (or "spyder" as it is called) is an exchange-traded fund which replicates the S&P 500 index. 12 million call options ranging in exercise price from 600 to 950 have been bought/sold (and thus created) by parties unknown. The S&P closed at 1474 on Friday. The options expire on September 21. This represents a three-week bet on the market being 35% to 60% lower in that time...
Here is the Yahoo! options list:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SPY&m=2007-09
I have heard that the cost of this options bet is from $1 billion to $1.78 billion, and could be worth from $2 billion to $4.5 billion if the market tanks by 700 points minimum by 21st September 2007. Obviously the figures are a guess. However, the contracts are real.
QUOTE:"The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in September, seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is in the works and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."
We live in a surreal world.
It will taint you with fear if it can ... if you allow it to do so.
So let's look at other possible reasons for placing the trades:
QUOTE:
1) Some fund needed money - the trade was for 720 million dollars (not a big deal but good liquidity). It is done in the lower leverage options therefore reducing risk to the seller...
2) Some fund is hedging the downside of some market buying.... meaning they are GOING LONG the market...
UNQUOTE
Now, doesn't that feel better? There is NO SINISTER INSIDER expecting the markets to crash. Yes, the Options were taken, but for legitimate financial protection.
And this, I understand, is the reason such derivatives exist in the first place, n'est ce pas?
By the way, the above work is none of my own - it was ripped from another forum, which was ripped from another quote, which was ...
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1919
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 01:08 am: |
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HC - I have just had an outage from my ISP lasting over one hour ... about enough time to fully read the Shane Baker link to the Economist report, which luckily I had downloaded before the breakdown.
Instead of leaving me feeling rather despondent, it actually raised my hopes for a soft landing amidst all of this.
If so, we may have escaped lightly. Yes, it does seem that our mortgage market has been more prudent, and less no-doc (only about 2% of our total mortgage market).
But I did note that the Economist lumps us with the UK and Spain (where there are no buyers for 200,000 of the 800,000 new homes this year) as the three top countries most likely to suffer in the near future from mortgage and home affordability and solvency issues ie "at risk".
Have we learned anything from this "near crash" event?
Will an escape this time make us better prepared and less likely to be exposed to similar events in the future?
For a short time ... yes!
In an enduring way ... nuh! I don't think so.
Risk involves vulnerability in order to gain reward. Once the pain of loss passes, it's onwards ... and upwards ... or should that be outwards ... on a limb?
But I would like to explore another factor which I have not seen discussed - the entry of the "X" and "Y" generations into positions of leadership corporately (and as investors) generally.
Are these stereotypes more or less likely to favour high risk than our own bunch?
How about their management style?
Are they more or less accommodating
more or less ruthless
more or less compassionate
more or less greedy
more or less visionary?
I pose these questions because of a contracting family size, coupled with an increasing disposable income in the families in which they were nurtured.
It has been mentioned elsewhere that in China, the current crop of new leaders raised under the one-child-per-family policy of ZPG will be very near-sighted indeed, favouring policies and options which will meet more selfish targets, due to their blinkered (ie "spoilt-brat") upbringing.
How will these leaders and investors accept "no" or "wait" as a response to their impatient push for further gratification? Will the psychological mix be more or less likely to have the wisdom, patience, experience, and discipline to take the decisions necessary for the greater good?
As an aging post-war baby, I find the answers to such questions more concerning than any sub-prime crisis. As I become more disempowered through the natural process of aging, I am wondering, can I depend on the world I had a part in creating, to continue to respect the hands that fed them?
... in the broader sense - ie will a new world order sweep away generations of status quo, in exchange for je ne sais quoi?
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3126
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 10:21 am: |
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Ingot,
Thanks for your posts. Appreciate that.
In many ways, your view makes a lot of sense,esp giving a counter balancing impact to my sometimes over negative opinions. I have this habit of talking myself into an extreme position... it's good you come along and give me a hand from declining further.
I too am thankful that you do not seek to get personal or shut me up because I am saying things that you do not like to hear. (Not implying you are doing this, but just take this opportunity to express how I feel in general).
On that option bet, I don't think my intention was to scare every one. My intention was basically to find out why, esp the cost of the bet, coz back in 911 days, I remember distinctly someone did buy big into airline option, they seemed to know in advance 911 would happen. I believe subsequent investigations by various govt into the event concluded there was no foul play. This time, I am really really curious since this one is so "obvious" that everyone is seeing it, its objective seems not into scaring people, but rather for some other reasons?
I am not assuming anything at this stage, but keeping an open mind means we should not conclude it in any direction, fair?
Regarding that Economist report, I thought it was very telling. They had spelt out the scenarios quite well and even given them various probability. The way we, or rather I would deal with such a report from a group of economists is always this - they are smart people, but, whatever they think will happen in economy, would always be lagging (after the market). Stephen Roach, for eg, has said a lot of thing, but, by the time they happen is one or two years later. Some, much much later. Not sure if this would make him wrong, since his timing is so bad?
In short, the market is a much better "timing machine" than what the economists think will happen. This is my very generalised opinion. (and thank god I have the chart!)
My posting of the link to the report firstly was to give credit to Shane, secondly, if you have noticed how I share that link, you would have seen I didn't say much or describe what's in it - I rather the reader go find out themselves and come to their own conclusion - and I was expecting them to come to a different one from mine.
I believe the readers, like you, are wise enough to draw your own conclusion. I am not seeking your agreement with what I am saying here at all if you can give me this little benefit of doubt - I may pick up all the negative news and highlighted them here, but I can almost guarantee you that I don't shaft the conclusion or opinion down your throat, or other's throat...
At the end, I think the readers, and each one of us is fully responsible for our own action. If the market is going to be good or to be bad, regardless, I think, it is still worthwhile to be aware of both sides of the argument. In stock market, ignorant is no bliss.
Cheers.
HC
...addicted to chart
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3127
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 10:35 am: |
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*** picked these two up from a news item, thought they show how bad situation has become in some part of the world. Note too the dates, they are fairly old.
HC
...addicted to chart
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2917
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 10:36 am: |
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Hi Ingot
I think the Forum is indebted to HC for providing so much interesting information, allowing others to form their own conclusions
I also think HC has a point in saying that holding Cash is a solution for the trader
This is especially true when in doubt
If the market makes a strong move in either direction while one is holding cash one can always rejoin the trend when it becomes clearer
To the best of my knowledge no one has sought to silence HC
To the contrary anyone willing to put so much effort into informing others, as HC has done, is to be applauded
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1920
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 11:56 am: |
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One thing I have learned early from your posts HC, is that you do not have a particular leaning towards what the market will or won't do. It may seem that way, but the truth is different.
In the midst of a herd of Bulls I do not see you as a Bear, but as a voice of reason - a call to sanity, reality, and uncommon sense, and as an educator towards alternative views, and a voice of caution.
While I am stroking your ego  it does have to be acknowledged that your charting going back at least 3 years on this forum, must have assisted members no end in understanding opportunities in the midst of some of the developing chaos and volatility we have seen and are seeing.
Similarly, Bundy helped me personally and privately, throughout a critical period where I was searching for direction and strategy to use and exploit in trading. I will never forget that.
That is why I find it strange that somehow Hilarius has fallen foul of both you and Bundy. Because the attributes I ascribe to yourself and Bundy, I apply also to Hilarius - a person of uncommon reason and compassion, with a willingness to share and help.
I does have to be said that Hilarius phrases his questions in such a way as to demand the reader dig deep to sometimes justify a view. I have never seen his questions as threatening, but as more a tongue-in-cheek enquiry for further information, or justification.
And yes, I can understand that persistent questioning can be an annoyance. Being under the microscope can be an unwelcome claustrophobic experience.
This is not just an Ingot ramble, but a serious concern I have.
I think all three personalities have made and are making invaluable contributions to Incredible Charts forum. And rather than finding each personality confronting or antagonistic, I (and I am certain many IC members) see the COLLECTIVE contribution as nothing less than enlightening.
This thread is a part of your "turf" HC and I think it needs to be respected as such, even though you don't claim it that way. Similary Hilarius has initiated threads with specific focus, which have achieved highly beneficial aims.
Don't stop seeking peace - we will all be the beneficiaries of concerted effort - even we each take turns at being Devil's Advocate, which is our right.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3128
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 01:25 pm: |
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Ingot,
I am sure we can discuss stocks without imposing our value on others. I like to think that I am a flexible and pragmatic person and I like to think creatively. I react badly when others are trying to confine my thought, and/or my thinking into a specific boundary to suit their view of the world. It is like a stifling chain, it kills creativity and at the end serves to herd everyone into a school of conforming sheep.
Bad news really, if this forum were to become a bulls only forum - the day this forum ceases to represent a microcosm of the wider market, where the bulls and bears are freely exchanging opinions, is the day this forum stops functioning the way it should be. When it happens, there's no need for anyone to stop me, I would just go away.
If others want to put my opinion under the microscope, I think I can deal with it - because the worst thing that can happen to me is this - My view is wrong and others can prove it.
But if I can, I much prefer others instead of taking their time to prove me wrong, they take the time to find out for themselves what I am yapping about - the best way to get even with HC is for them to find out the "truth" themselves so they can laugh at HC's own ignorance. I am sure they will find it more satisfying that way - let HC talks, he will soon put his own foot into his mouth...
The stock market and the capitalistic system thrive on competition. Competition is the core of success for the capitalist economy. It is also ruthless. In my eyes, it's naive to try to put a moral judgement on this ruthless machine... it's like trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. It simply won't fit.
This forum is not the arena to discuss such subjective issues. With limited time on our hand, I think it is a complete waste of this limited time to discuss these very diverse topics because out front I know there won't be any useful or practical conclusion. On top of that, it's not a question of knowing or understanding the issues, it's more of a question of accepting one's point of view.
Cheers.
HC
...addicted to chart
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2920
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 02:16 pm: |
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HC
It will probably come as no surprise that I completely disagree with you on the question of moral values as they relate to the operation of the Capitalist System
I also have to point out that you have asserted the presence of a moral value "ruthlessness" in the system
Apparently you wish to impose that view on others, by excluding contrary views on the basis of their supposed naivety or irrelevance.
Yet when I express my view on such a matter I have absolutely no desire to exclude the views of others. Indeed I am very interested in them.
It seems HC that the moral compass of ruthlessness which you attribute to Capitalism is the only one to be respected, though I very much doubt that you yourself are a ruthless person. In fact I would like to believe you are quite the opposite of ruthless (unless by some strange chance ruthlessness is a personal goal of yours, which would surprise me very much indeed).
There are in fact many other guidelines apart from ruthlessness for the operation of Capitalism which involve a host of moral considerations.
I will not labour the point further here as I have opened a specific thread on the topic titled :-
"Does Capitalism Operate in a Moral Vacuum?"
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/35933/1212989.html
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2923
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 03:10 pm: |
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Keeping an eye on future updates of these figures will be extremely important in tracking the Australian economy from here on :-
Aust Bureau of Stats
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3129
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 03:19 pm: |
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