Archive through September 13, 2007
| Author |
Message |
     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3164
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 09:22 am: | 
|
Hilarius,
Do me a favour, please go back to your thread or start a thread for your chart specifically so others can find your work easily. I'd like to keep this thread focus in what it is set out to do - keep others informed of the market, esp, the negative side of market/economic developments.
Thanks.
ps: in future, if you want to refer to a link of particular post, all you have to do is to click on the little icon as pointed to by the arrow as shown in the attached pic. There are two ways you can locate the link: a) right click and then select "properties" of the icon; b) left click on the icon to display the post, the http address is what you want.
I am assuming you are using either Mozilla or Firefox browser.
HC
...addicted to chart
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3165
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 09:52 am: |
|
Reading for this morning...
1) http://tinyurl.com/378lgn
2) http://tinyurl.com/yc6kmr (good!)
3) http://tinyurl.com/3xdh67 (do your own search on site)
4) http://tinyurl.com/36jpbe
Japan experienced a deflation in recent years because the bursting of its asset-price bubble in the early 1990s created huge losses in its banking system. The Japanese banks had financed the asset-price bubble. When it burst, the debtors could not keep current on their loans to the banks and therefore were forced to turn back the collateral to the banks. The market value of the collateral, of course, was less than the amount of the loans outstanding, thereby inflicting huge losses of capital to the Japanese banks. With the decline in bank capital, the Japanese banks could not extend new credit to the private sector even though the Bank of Japan was offering credit to the banks at very low nominal rates of interest.
Banks are an important transmission mechanism between the central bank and the private economy. If the banks are unable or unwilling to extend the cheap credit being offered to them by the central bank, then the economy grows very slowly, if at all. This happened in the U.S. during the early 1930s.
U.S. banks currently hold record amounts of mortgage-related assets on their books. If the housing market were to go into a deep recession resulting in massive mortgage defaults, the U.S. banking system could sustain huge losses similar to what the Japanese banks experienced in the 1990s. If this were to occur, the Fed could cut interest rates to zero but it would have little positive effect on economic activity or inflation.
Short of the Fed depositing newly-created money directly into private sector accounts, I suspect that a deflation would occur under these circumstances. Again, crippled banking systems tend to bring on deflations. And crippled banking systems seem to result from the bursting of asset bubbles because of the sharp decline in the value of the collateral backing bank loans.
Hope this helps,
Paul
Paul L. Kasriel
Sr. V.P. and Director of Economic Research
The Northern Trust Company
HC
...addicted to chart
|
kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 753
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 11:40 am: |
|
Hilarius,
Thank you very much for the graph. I don't think it matters that the the XAO and the VIX are on different percentage scales, all I'm looking for is an inverse correlation over time. If there is, it may have been a useful trading tool over the February to August period. It may also have some use in the coming months. There appears to be two opposing "forces", a stong Australian economy with a lot of "wantabe" bullish sentiment and a rather negative US economy and slower global growth (predominantly 1st world, unless there is an Asian financial crisis associated with the US).
If we were in a worse economic position we would just head south along with the US but we are not, hence I see a long period of volatility ahead. I am quite happy to be wrong, in fact it would be a whole lot easier to make money if the market would either just go up or down.
HC
I read virtually all the links you post, what do you think will happen over the next few months?
Regards
Kate
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3166
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 12:52 pm: |
|
Kate,
1) the next couple of weeks will be very important due to the int rate consideration - feds lowering, regardless how much, will soothe the market a little. But if the FEDs does the opposite and raises rate - "hell boils over", I think.
Also, the few biggies investment banks will be reporting and will be revealing their exposure in the subprime area, which I believe will initially hit the market hard depending on how bad the news, but longer term will help to calm the market down since this removes a layer of uncertainty.
Also, I think I'd just read this morning there are closed to 140bn CP to be rolled over later this week in Europe. So it's looking like some kind of crunch time for the first layer of the subprime/credit "onion" to be exposed.
2) Technically, depending on how the markets present its data to me... and locally, I believe ASX will be reaching some kind of watershed - it will either show a potential to more drastic drop or a sideway base building consolidation, assuming the fundamentals are still holding. I am keeping my option completely open at the moment, although I am arguing against buy and hold long term investment. (My own belief is a better long term entry point will present itself further down the road. Now, timingwise, is a tad too early. Please note this is JMV, could be wrong here).
Cheers.
HC
...addicted to chart
|
ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 466
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 05:00 pm: |
|
HC,
I find Paul Kasriel a very straight shooter on matters economic. Incidentally, The Northern Trust Co. was selected by the Government to manage or be custodian of the the Future Fund (not sure which).
Ken
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3168
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 06:14 pm: |
|
Ken,
It seems he is quite well regarded by the markets over there.
Cheers.
HC
...addicted to chart
|
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2995
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 07:31 am: |
|
Markets were confident on the Anniversary of 9/11 as the world continues to face the challenge of cowardice or courage in the face of dangers
In the words of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt ... "We have nothing to fear but fear itself"
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
|
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2996
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 07:39 am: |
|
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
|
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2997
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 07:58 am: |
|
Holy Cow
I must apologise that I have only just seen your message 3164 of yesterday morning, and from tomorrow (Thursday) I will create a separate thread for these charts
The Vix chart was prepared at the specific request of Kate in this thread and so it seemed appropriate to update it here
I do wonder why you are motivated to focus on negative sentiment only
Why not a balanced thread with various viewpoints?
You may be interested to know that I am neither bullish nor bearish but await the positioning of the next market low with neutral interest
If it is a higher low than mid-August that will be bullish at least in the short term. If it a lower low that would indeed indicate a shattering of confidence
I must say I find a proliferation of messages which fail to quantify issues and literally offer only scaremongering thoughts to be unhelpful.
I suspect, but cannot prove, that the facts will lie somewhere between the worst fears of the pessimists and the best hopes of the optimists
Some people are saying that the US Federal Reserve is trying to prevent a normal move from recovery back into recession
The point some people try to make is that the Fed is powerless to resist the economic cycle
A point often made by economists is that it actually doesn't matter if one major economy is out of sync with the rest of the world (eg when Japan went downwards while others prospered)
The idea that the American economy is dominant is probably less relevant that it used to be
All that said I believe that Central Banks are more able to set the tone of economic activity than the pessimists assume
I see no reason to have a thread which continually harps on the dark side ... though I accept the value of input which tries to clarify BOTH the negative and positive factors influencing future outcomes
My charts will be posted elsewhere since you have requested it, but I am confused by your wish to retain a one sided focus
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3170
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 10:53 am: |
|
Hilarius,
You have a serious problem, and I am not saying this with malice. The problem you are suffering from is called closed mindedness. In my terminology, I would describe you to be someone who always see things from inside out, rather than from outside in.
Freedom, in your context is conditional. There won't be total freedom in your world, say, for some one who doesn't fit into your image of a decent person. Your thought, your words, the choice of your words you use to describe a problem, an event, a person, are always tainted with your prejudice.
For example, the phrase you used to describe my action, the "dark side", do you know how offensive and patronising it is in my eyes? What and who give you this right to be so condescending? Why aren't you on the dark side and I am on the bright side?
I have a lot of opinions and prejudices about you and people like you, but so far I believe my restrain has been 1000 times better than you. I have shown a lot more consideration when I talk or interact with you. All these while, I have tried my best not to hurt your feeling or being too generalising or patronising like you...
I can forgive a person for being ignorant.
But after this message today, there won't be anymore excuses or forgiveness for your thought, your words and your action because to be frank, my respect for you is at all time low.
If you still cannot understand what I am saying, please go and ask others who can. Being nice, being kind, being all goodness to everything, is, first and foremost, live and let live! Until you have learned not to judge others on your narrow definition of goodness, you won't be living in my good book. You simply won't! Because you are from the dark side!
HC
...addicted to chart
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3171
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 12:53 pm: |
|
...guess what? An over-40 sent me this. Andy, I think you are WRONG! 
As I grow in age, I value women over 40 most of all. Here are just a few reasons why:
A woman over 40 will never wake you in the middle of the night and ask, "What are you thinking?" She doesn't care what you think. If a woman over 40 doesn't want to watch the game, she doesn't sit around whining about it. She does something she wants to do, and it's usually more interesting. Women over 40 are dignified. They seldom have a screaming match with you at the opera or in the middle of an expensive restaurant. Of course, if you deserve it, they won't hesitate to shoot you if they think they can get away with it. Older women are generous with praise, often undeserved. They know what it's like to be unappreciated. Women get psychic as they age. You never have to confess your sins to a woman over 40. Once you get past a wrinkle or two, a woman over 40 is far sexier than her younger counterpart. Older women are forthright and honest. They'll tell you right off that you are a jerk if you are acting like one. You don't ever have to wonder where you stand with her. Yes, we praise women over 40 for a multitude of reasons. Unfortunately, it's not reciprocal. For every stunning, smart, well-coiffed, hot woman over 40, there is a bald, paunchy relic in yellow pants making a fool of himself with some 22-year old waitress. Ladies, I apologize. For all those men who say, "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?", here's an update for you. Nowadays 80% of women are against marriage. Why? Because women realize it's not worth buying an entire pig just to get a little sausage!
Andy Rooney is a really smart guy!
Femmes & Fellas, forward to five fine, fun, fabulous, fancy-free female friends over 40.
Andy Rooney,60 Minutes Correspondent (CBS)
HC
...a faithless chartist
“Faith is a euphemism for prejudice and religion is a euphemism for superstition” - Paul Keller
|
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2998
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 01:35 pm: |
|
HC
Considering all points of view and all evidence is close-minded?
Being focused on one point of view with insufficient evidence is open-minded?
To me that sounds like "white = black" and "black = white"
A very strange logic indeed
H
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3172
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 02:15 pm: |
|
Hilarius,
You are wrong again in interpreting my message. I told a white lie to make it sound less harsh earlier on - it's not the content, but your company.
HC
...a faithless chartist
“Faith is a euphemism for prejudice and religion is a euphemism for superstition” - Paul Keller
|
| | |
