Archive through September 17, 2007
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3181
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 02:16 pm: | 
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http://tinyurl.com/2pm67x
CREDIT rating agencies have been called to a special meeting in Washington by the umbrella body for the world's securities regulators to explain how they rate structured financial products based on mortgage assets...
*** ok, the focus is on, knife is ready but held behind the back,... first, the questioning, then, further investigation, and anticipation... of whistle blowers coming forward... and more question,...
Well, if you are interested in how it all develop, go check out how AA is exposed in the Enron saga. Have a feeling the plot may not be an exact duplicate, it won't be too far off track.
Waiting eagerly now for the next chapter - "The Investigation..."
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3182
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 02:23 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/23djvq
MORE than 100,000 jobs may well be lost from the US mortgage industry in the next few months as the turmoil in the credit markets begins to bite...
*** use your imagination, last week, they were expecting a positive job number but were "shocked" by a 4000 loss and the market went into some kind of diarrhea...
With 4000 only? Did I hear you ask? Yes, Four Thousands ONLY!
Now, tell me, how are they going to handle this 100,000 job loss? Yes, it's ONE HUNDRED THOUSANDS job loss we are talking about! Is it logical in this case then,...for us to assume the market will get into some kind of heart attack?
Over to you...
HC
...with charts will travel
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1928
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 02:52 pm: |
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The financial sector has announced 103,000 cuts in 2007 and is on track to outdo the high of 117,000 in the 2001 recession.
"There were early warning signs in April as a few major sub-prime lenders went under and released workers," said John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "However, what had been a relatively small number of job cuts suddenly turned into a deluge in August as financial institutions shut down operations overnight."
The August data does not include the 12,000 job cuts last week by Countrywide Financial. The cuts amount to 20 per cent of its headcount. Mr Cecala said similar job losses were likely across the industry.
Thanks HC.
Interesting too is that "Countryslide" (as it is now "affectionately" known) CEO Mr Mozilo Angelo was aware 5 years ago that this current scenario was likely.:
"We remember quoting Mr. Angelo a couple of years ago. What impressed us was that the CEO of the nation’s largest mortgage lender – the firm makes one in five mortgages in the United States – had no illusions.
If we remember correctly, he saw the implosion coming. We wonder what happened? Was he powerless to protect the business? Was the lure of fast profits too much to resist? Did the crisis come sooner...or harder...than he expected?
We don’t know; but we take it as a warning. Even seeing the broad outlines of a problem shaping up doesn’t mean you’re going to be in the clear when it hits.
The geniuses who run hedge funds must see the traps, too. Still, many walk right in. Moody’s says the default rate on high-yield debt is likely to double.
And today’s news brings word that two more large funds have barred withdrawals. Investors are trapped in Pirate Capital and Y2K Finance. Pirate says that two of its Jolly Roger funds have lost 80% of their money in the past year. And Y2K, run by Wharton Asset Management, is down a similar amount."
You can read this story at the home page tomorrow when it is updated. My post was in part an email excerpt.}
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3183
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 04:27 pm: |
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I find these three graphs particularly "disturbing", if not "shocking"!
1) Commercial bank home equity loans @450bn
2) Commercial bank assets mortgage backed securities @ US$1million million (1 trillion)
3) Commercial bank off balance sheet derivatives >140 trillions!
Would I be right to assume the leverage of these off balance sheet derivatives is at 140X? The number is a little numbing! Holycow! Holycockroaches...
HC
...with charts will travel
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2733
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 07:15 pm: |
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Ahoy Holy Cow
Is that it?
Is that all you can offer?
Is this your only excuse for missing out on the Bottom reached 16/08/2007?
Salute and Gods' Speed
PS In memory of a Good Old Friar who has never ever meant any harm to anyone
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 64
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 09:22 pm: |
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I agree with HC.
The engineering of ever more complex and leveraged systems of making money is much too close to gambling without thinking about losing.
This is combined by remuneration to "executives" designing these systems based solely on returns and ignoring any sort of prudence. They just take the money now and don't worry about it coming unglued.
As my grandmother used to say, it'll end in tears.
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3185
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 10:42 am: |
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The other day I was talking to a few young people (17-24), and I was making a comment regarding a TV character, the response I got was a burst of laughters - clearly, they did not agree with my view but they were too polite to disagree and instead they chose to use laughter or humour to voice their disagreement. I was quite puzzled and so I asked them if they can share their view with me, but, they clearly didn't want to as all I got was smiles...
I got the message. They disagree but they didn't want to offend. I joined them with a sheepish laugh and walked away. Staying on and continuing with my view and/or arguing with my point I think is rather "petty" coz that's such a trivial issue. (There seemed to be a generation gap there, I felt it and I would dearly love to talk to them to find out more. But I desisted that urge coz they were having such a good time. Knowing my place and not insisting on my view I believe is more important to bridge the gap I believe...)
Ok, back here, I am having a situation - all I want is to be left alone to do my thing. I don't believe this is a big ask coz it's really very easy for one to walk away... but apparently I am having problem with this simple request.
Why? Can someone help me out here? Why is it so difficult for others to leave me alone? If they can't "stand" what I am saying, they don't have to visit this thread! This thread is meant for "bears". They know it, and yet they come, they read, and then they "attack". It's okay if they attack the ball, but they don't, instead of going for the ball, they go for the man. And when the bear bites back,... hell boils over...
...so far, Colin has been alerted a few times. This thread in a way was hijacked, and when I tried to claim it back, what did I find? Knock knock! Colin is here... and with a cane! Ok, someone has run home crying mummy... something I did a few times before coz I didn't want to appear "petty". Now elsewhere, they are calling me "sensitive", and I am censoring others... I think some people here are born/natural politician. It's a shame they are wasting their time in this forum whingeing over petty issue such as HC blowing hot air they don't like to hear.
Ok, Colin has publicly and privately requested that I "behave" and be considerate to other readers, this is something I would love to comply, coz it is also my preference. I am doing my best to "strut my stuffs" here and keep to myself, if others want to join in, they are welcome, but please play the ball, not the man.
Coz I am a believer in "real" free speech... that is, until others start playing "dirty".
HC
...with charts will travel
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dennis_menace
Member
Username: dennis_menace
Post Number: 1036
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 11:26 am: |
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Hi HC,
Why don't you start your own thread with your enlightening views on stocks and other issues which I enjoy reading. In that way if others who wish to be negative on what you say then they can PM you with their opinion(s) rather than antagonise the situation. What about
HC - View Of The Market Presently
HC - Stocks To Watch
for a start. After all no one is being forced to read and comment on your views.
Regards
DM
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 65
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 12:42 pm: |
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HC wrote: Ok, back here, I am having a situation - all I want is to be left alone to do my thing. Why is it so difficult for others to leave me alone?
I thought that you wished to share your views and very valuable research. I hope you keep going.
The unfortunate reality is that we all have things that are beyond our personal control. The behaviour of others is one of them.
For your own peace of mind and my continued enjoyment of your contributions, I suggest that each time you get somebody playing the man rather than the ball you:
1. Take it as a complement that they can't touch your arguments and must resort to playing the man.
2. Ignore anything which is not on point.
3. Keep a poker face and never show you've been wounded.
4. Never assign to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.
Keep up the good work!
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 3001
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 02:04 pm: |
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Holy Cow
There are a number of accusations in your message 3185 which are false and unsupported. They are close to libellous.
They are doubly in appropriate while I been asked to have no right of reply.
You speak of playing the man and not the ball. I consistently played the ball. You are playing the man, when the man has been asked not to respond. But if you are going to be allowed a free reign to dish out untruths concerning others the example I intend to set is out in the reasoned response below, and after that I will give consideration to turning the other cheek.
I draw this situation to the attention of the Moderator.
Incidentally asking for specific people not to respond to your messages might seem like a reasonable request, except that in a free forum such a request amounts to censorship.
If only your views can be heard where is the reasonable right of reply and free speech which people gave their lives for in wars against those who wanted no free speech?
I grew up in a world where one nation told only one side of the story, and prohibited dissent. I suggest you think about what your demand to be "left alone" really means
To me it means that you only want one side of the story to be heard. This is doubly ironic as I was one of the earliest in August to discuss the prevalence of fear in markets and to attempt to illustrate its effects graphically with charts.
I am well aware of the potential of fear to infect and destroy confidence in markets
That is why it is important that a one sided view is not presented.
I have kept a record of various messages where you responded with hostility and aggression, none of which was ever adequately explained.
I am able to reason with people I disagree with and I respect the reasoning powers of many with whom I have disagreed, for example Bundy and Phil R
Your pleas to be left alone strike me as a plea to have only your view heard
That is beyond reason and has no justifiable explanation in a supposedly open forum.
I wish you well in presenting your case, especially in QUANTIFYING the scope and extent of the current economic problems
I congratulated you recently on your contribution to the Forum. That appears to be all forgotten because of your unreasoned, unsubstantiated, unfair and incomprehensible attempts to silence my right to offer views constructively, not least when I share your analysis and views to the extent that they impact on the economy beyond the original area of concern, which was subprime mortgages.
I ask you to desist from further adverse comment while I have no right of reply.
You could have sent me a private message a long time ago if you had reasonable concerns and I invite you to to follow that course, so that I can understand clearly the reasons for your apparent hostility. At the moment I do not have the slightest idea what they could be.
Asking to be "left alone" without being exposed to other ideas from individuals you've chosen to exclude for no reason, is hardly a way to proceed in a public place.
I invite you to provide a rational explanation privately.
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3186
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 02:44 pm: |
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DM and EM,
Thanks for your view and support. To be frank, until this moment I still have problem understanding and accepting what's so difficult with my request. I have just spent 5 min telling myself if I can find a way, like using humour to get me over the negative reaction I am having... I can't, and I am losing it. Give me a day and let me cool down, I hope I can come back a better person and continue writing as before. Sorry to let you guys down this min.
Cheers and have a good day.
Hilarius,
Let me apologise here for all the untruths and accusations, if there is any, I have made against you with this message. I am sorry.
I hope, this will settle our differences as of this point.
In order to avoid further/future misunderstanding, I will not be responding to your messages. You are welcome to post what you like. Make your point, let your opinion be known, then move on.
Cheers.
HC
...with charts will travel
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 66
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 02:49 pm: |
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Could we at least have something related to ASX: long term & fundamental in each post?
My view is that the recent disturbance is not related to anything fundamental, but that we remain set for a continued uptrend. This will be largely driven by the ongoing influx of super-funds.
If things come unglued it is unlikely to be because of the current crisis, but mega factors like an ageing population and shortages of energy, food, and water.
Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.
Industrial Disease
Dire Straits
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easymoney
Member
Username: easymoney
Post Number: 68
Registered: 03-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 14, 2007 - 03:13 pm: | | | | |
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