Archive through September 19, 2007
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     holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 3198
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 09:57 am: | 
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The former Fed chairman (Greenspan) said collateralised debt obligations – securities that slice up and repackage loans to meet the risk-appetite of different investors – “will never get back to the levels and structures that they were, because now everybody knows you cannot price them”.
*** missed this para - so, if they can't reprice the CDO's, what will happen to those who are holding them? Does this sound like the tulip bulb someone who has just paid 10K for it... now is asking you to take over from him - how much would you pay?
10c? 20c? 100c? $100? $1,000? How much?
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3199
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 10:09 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/yuj9gj
*** you are looking at the other end of the deal, if you are a currency speculator. You're up against her! Now,... do you have what it takes to beat her in the game? Huh?
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HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3200
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 10:17 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2yvot7
THE employment statistics and the bond market are combining to send out a warning that has been heard only rarely in the past two decades: A recession is coming in the United States.
The two charts show the double warning. Both charts warned of an economic downturn before the 1990 and 2001 recessions, and they are doing so again...
*** let's think positive, and be optimistic, let's ignore these gloom and doom stuffs, let's go betting, and let's bet big, put all the $$$ for the jackpot and strike it rich - let's go fully invested, coz, ASX is a different kettle of fish. We have China and India... and we sell commodities, which in a way, is inflation proof and recession proof, and it is also bullet proof, no road side bomb can touch us.
...other than a nuclear warhead.
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3201
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 10:58 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2csoq2
*** the paper tigers are on the war path at each other - one is loaded with 1 trillion US$, the other, is willing to print more US$ if required... it's a lose-lose situation, and we are looking at two losers here. The difference? One will be a bigger loser than the other. And guess who is the bigger loser?
As usual, the question: when two elephants fight, will the fleas that got caught in the middle, be squashed?
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3202
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 11:24 am: |
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http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070916/19/1egde.html
...while I wait, there are more news
"It appears that the next chapter of global credit crisis has opened with reports of the bailout of major UK mortgage provider Northern Rock by the Bank of England, which stepped in to provide emergency funding to the lender," Hutchings said....
*** can you see how the contagion spread? First in the US soil, then, the German got their turn, next the French since they "share" the same ECB, now the UK, next?
Let me suck my thumb and make an intelligent guess - let's hope it is not Japan, because if it is, you can bet your **** that the YEN carry trades will be whacked sh*tless and then we will find out what will happen next to the master(s) of this universe...
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3203
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 11:58 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2lba6c
Solid as Rock!?
*** don't know what trigger off the "run"... but here(http://tinyurl.com/2n4jyd) is a reminder of the local banks' "exposure". The numbers,... don't know where, how are gotten or given. It's like I am asking you this - please trust me. Don't you trust me? I am your friendly neighbourhood bank and I love you...
Ok, I trust them. I trust their numbers. They can hold these numbers in their book for as long as they like, but no matter how they dress them, these numbers would/should eventually be treated as "liability", that is, as far as I am concerned.
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3204
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, September 17, 2007 - 07:46 pm: |
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http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/recessionbears.htm
*** do you you have a closed mind? No? Ok, let's just whisper the R word and the B word quietly... sshhhh, so, what about the PE? The PE is low to very low to below historical average in ASX, don't you know? Is low PE relevant to a recession led bear market? Read and find out... -12%? Enough? -15%? -18%? -25%? -35%?... 
The next set of graphs shows the Price-to-Peak-Earnings Ratio at the start of each bear market. Stand-alone bear markets have begun at higher valuations, on average. Except for the 1976 and 1983 declines that started at less than 12 times earnings, most began at or above current valuations. Two started at around 17.5 times earnings (1966 and 1971), and two more at around 20 times earnings (1961 and 1987). The 1998 bear market started from an even higher 28.5 times earnings.
Now look at the graph of P/E's at the start of recession-induced bear markets. One clear characteristic of recession-induced bear markets is that they are indifferent to the level of starting valuation. The 2000 bear market began at a record 32 times earnings. But five of the nine recession-induced bear markets began from a multiple of less than 15 times peak earnings. Three started from a price to earnings ratio of less than 10.
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3205
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 09:24 am: |
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http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070917/19/1ei7v.html
"The market is looking to the potential next victims and in a sense all banks are more or less exposed," said Felix Lanters, an equities portfolio manager at Theodoor Gilissen.
...
"The slower approach is taking some steam out of the short end," said Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal in New York. "There are also tentative signs of stability in the credit space."...
*** so far, quite a few overseas banks were hit... will these banks come back? Doubt it. Definitely not on their own. Credit and trust goes hand in hand, once you lose the trust, you got no credit. Goodbye will be the hardest word when it happens. So, locally, what do you think Mr RAM will fare next? Will it turn into a Rock?
Tentatively I think the minor banks are showing sign of distress - ADB, BEN are looking vulnerable. If you have them, better look after them like your newborn. They look fragile.
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3206
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 09:42 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/3aobxe
RISKS of a US recession have increased and a plunge in house prices, but the US Federal Reserve must be cautious in supporting the economy, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said overnight.
"Earlier in the year, I was talking about a one-third probability of a recession," Dr Greenspan said. "It's come up somewhat, but it's still at this stage somewhat less than 50 (per cent)."
He said the biggest risk to the outlook for the US economy would be a substantial fall in house prices.
The economy could weather a mild decline in home values as long as there is a decrease in new home construction and inventories of unsold homes clear, the former Fed chief said.
"But if the whole thing festers, it will erode household balance sheets and eventually impact on what the critical support has been in this economy: consumer expenditures," he said...
*** a substantial fall in house prices? Hmmm, how many have watched the ABC 4Corners last night. They were showing new houses being abandoned in new housing area... when owner occupiers are walking away from their own home in droves - in a street, 5 out of 9 houses were abandoned - what'd you expect the house price in that area to become?
... poof!
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3207
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 10:01 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2vko2f
WALL Street's third quarter would be the worst since 2001 if it weren't for the timely sale of a power company by Goldman Sachs Group.
Bear Stearns is expected to report a 41 per cent drop in earnings a share, Morgan Stanley may post an 11 per cent decline and Lehman Brothers Holdings could announce a profit fall of 5.1 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Goldman's earnings jumped an estimated 33 per cent after a gain of as much as $US1 billion ($A1.2 billion) from the sale of Horizon Wind Energy...
*** you can say these are the market expectations... and in sensitive juncture such as now, if these expectations are not met, expect these big kahunas to get whacked, and with them, a good chance the rest of the market, if not, the finance group getting a good flogging. On the other hand, if they were to announce a little surprises here and there, well, you may get a free pass, and collect $200...
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3208
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 10:09 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2jqxgv
...the value of our houses is purely a paper value based on speculation that prices will rise, and "if we all tried to cash in our chips at once, the housing market would collapse".
"Debt has risen at a much faster rate than house prices, so that our net equity in housing has fallen, even as asset values and prices have risen," he says.
"The sheer rate of the increase in debt in Australia, compared to the USA, also implies that the consumer effect of any slowdown in lending will be more severe here than in the USA." - Professor Steve Keen, University of Western Sydney
*** last week, MBL were telling everyone everywhere everything was very ok... the market had a rally, and everyone everywhere was feeling very ok and was feeling very happy... a few days later, everyone everywhere is talking about recession! Now what is happening here? Huh? Com'on! Everyone everywhere is looking towards a bullish rally everywhere very soon... let's not forget this. Rejoice!
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3209
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 10:15 am: |
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... a market gripping by fear, grasping for straw...
HC
...with charts will travel
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3210
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Tuesday, September 18, 2007 - 10:30 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/yq9ugc
In an interview early Monday with NBC News's "Today Show," Greenspan said he does not accept blame for the nation's housing bubble.
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