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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3392
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 06:08 pm: |  
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MMX Daily
1) just in case fingers are pointing - I usually buy after I post my msg... but sometimes I cheat a little - I post after I have bought so I can on sale to other more gullible souls. (See, I am a really nasty sort of person - you shouldn't trust me or trust what I say... including this msg!)
2) in future, you can assume I don't own the stock if it is a loser. And vice versa(ly), that is, I naturally and of course own the stock if it is a winner... since I am such a smart cow.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3398
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 11:37 am: |
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MMX Daily
1) Bounce! Need to watch eod vol. The sp needs higher vol to sustain its recovery...
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3406
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 16, 2007 - 12:01 am: |
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MMX Daily
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3419
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 09:52 am: |
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MMX Daily
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3447
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 05:51 pm: |
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MMX Daily
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 810
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 24, 2007 - 02:04 pm: |
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FWIW HC I agree with your assessment of MMX.
I have been a long term owner/trader still with a residual MMX holding. My guess is the market sentiment is about to factor in the "santa rally" and various fictional improvements in the US economy so I think it is nearly time to top up/buy in(I note in post 3392 above you could not decide if you were presently owner or soon to be owner or simply a nasty person ~ do you hold now HC? [if it is not to presumptuous to ask]).
Daily chart for those who are interested ~ that 200D MA may just provide the bounce required here, the daily MACD is beginning to look +ve, but increased volume would not go astray.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3479
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 24, 2007 - 04:49 pm: |
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tryhay,
1) I don't hold MMX. The reason why posted this series of chart is: a) to alert the existing holders what they are potentially facing, b) to illustrate to others that if they pick the support well, they can buy near the level and trade on the bounce, c) show and tell my trade within certain parameters and timeframe.
2) I have yet to buy MMX because of the weak market turnover yesterday, so, in a way, I kind of have missed the opportunity.
3) I see MMX is becoming another HSP where the messy takeover is going to cause its share price going range bound, if not, lower. I am not actually that sure about the sp bouncing right back up at this point.
4) Am I a nasty person?... I reckon it depends on in whose eyes - those who are holding the stock that I am "picking" on, and/or those who are waiting and looking for opportunity like me. But really I don't believe I can talk down the market with my analysis. For that matter, for those who are more open minded, they could have saved themselves a lot of money if they could allow themselves the flexibility of looking at their stock from a different angle.
Two good examples are: cold case - BOL, and recently AED. And now in a lesser degree, MMX.
We can also look at BNB and see how it will turn out, the holders of this stock have plenty of time to go through their investing/trading criteria. There's also no telling where the sp will go at this point.
In general, and in most occasions, the investors or traders lost big mainly due to their own complacency - they have become too over confident as the bull market has really been kind to them all these while that they have developed this lazy attitude of assuming the sp will rebound after every dip - while the sp is clearly showing stress selling, which is very clear in AED's case.
At a market top such as what we are having now, most bulls are "blind" bulls due to their cognitive bias. Their inner eyes convert everything, good or bad into good and hence setting themselves up as potential disaster when the market turns.
For example, even as we speak, many are still of the same mindset as that of 6 month, one year or two years ago. They have assumed nothing has changed (much)...
But is that true?
Presently we have a whole host of BIG problems which can potentially create havoc in the financial and equity markets globally, but how many people are actually taking heed?
Let me list them here: credit crunch, high oil price,recession threat, inflation threat, potential war in Iran, subprime problem spreading and deteriorating, drastic depreciation of the US$... heaps of huge problem and all it needs is for one get out of control to start the snowball rolling.
Still, I believe currently there are more bullish views in ASX than those with neutral or bearish stance. Should the market go down the drain later on, I think, many will be caught unprepared, and those who get hurt really can't blame others but themselves.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 813
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 24, 2007 - 05:33 pm: |
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very good HC.
I dont know that you are too late (and whether I'll actually top up in MMX or other hard commodities for the possible santa rally). I guess early this week we will know market direction more clearly ~ (could still be a false break out on the broardening wedge [XAO]), but I can not see the market/s dropping like a stone ATM. Our market has been substantially saved a worse fate (C.F. DJIA) by the BHP / RIO M&A stuff - and I expect to see more M&A before christmas. Further, you have reminded me of the messy takeover cappers and if MMX does bounce to close to $5.00 then I think I'll totally bail.
I do not see you as a nasty person HC so don't beat up on yourself; only a couple of posters on this site go out of their way to S#$%^T on others, like school yard bullies, and all you got to do is ignore them (wish we had an ignore button like the BBQ), and not make their problem your problem ~ face it they can always pick on others or perhaps kick the cat at home until scratched to submission.
At present I'm still fully invested, but looking to buy into new shorts after this expected bounce. What other people do HC is their problem and consequences.....
On another matter, I do get value from the charts and analysis you care to post ~ and hope you can keep it up.
Mark
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3480
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 25, 2007 - 09:33 am: |
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MMX Daily
Tryhay,
After reading your view, I took another look at MMX... if we see the chart as a triangle, at this point, ie, point 1 in the chart, in the next few days we probably will be shown where the sp will be heading:
a) if it breaks down, it is bad news.
b) if the rebound continues (quite likely since RSI is indicating oversold and is rebounding), there is a chance that it may hit your target of 5.00 within the triangle, at that point, I guess we can hold on and hope to see a breakout beyond 5.00.
Your other comments...
c) I don't think the market will drop like a rock - I assume you are referring to the index here - if you are, then, we won't see a straight line drop because the rise of a few big stocks are masking the overall market (Adv/Dec line may show a little).
The best way to observe this kind of "drop" if there's one, is by monitoring a few of your favourite stocks - here you may see some drop like a stone. If I may, take a look at AED's recent drop in a weekly data period. The drop reflects a 47% chop-chop. So a likely future scenario will be something like this - you see a daily 1 to 2% drop with rebound in between, but, you will will see many individual stocks going through what AED has been through, giving back their gain rather quickly.
Cheers.
AED Weekly
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3518
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 29, 2007 - 05:41 pm: |
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MMX Daily
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3569
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 10, 2007 - 01:45 pm: |
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MMX Daily
1) At some point, the pattern changes due to price movement and/or company activities (which influence investors/speculators' mindset/decision/intention) - in cases like this, it is generally a "good idea" to review our technical position. There is generally a time to hold fast to our position and a time not to, in MMX's case I think may need some "readjustment" - due to a) the new development in the take over saga, b) the last few days' sp movement.
This, however is just a short term view, longer term, the sp is still very much subjected to the FA influence, which hinges on the takeover outcome. The longer term weekly chart, is looking quite bearish. (implying the chance of t/o success is not really that good, jmv)
MMX Weekly
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 841
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 10, 2007 - 08:55 pm: |
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Hello HC
I have already reduced holding of MMX, and am prepared to hold the residual for some time (particularly as I expect the short term support hold) ~ because of the perceived fundamental prospects. I guess the sp may just bounce around the 200 & 50 DMA, however the indicators look to be turning +ve ATM. I do not much like the uncertainty of M & A plays (three company announcements listed today saying not much).
Daily chart: Interesting volume and price action lately not to mention Momentum & RSI...
KZL, IGO residual, BSG, JML & TOX etc still look a better bet ATM.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3585
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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