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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2637
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 03:28 pm: |  
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Down in Daily Bread,Fish Farms/Aquaculture was "divined" as a Possible Hot Future Sector.
Poptop provided me with some Entrants so here for starters is a Price Comparative for 6 and 12 mths.TGR is the "proper,respectable " one with a $3+ price and the largest Market Cap.
All of them are "difficult" re Liquidity but that's not really my worry.After all I'll probably only ever Max $10grand in one of them.
Anyway here's the Comparative Charts.Any One Holding or has looked at any of these?Know of any other Candidates?
obviously CSS is also a real Goer in this Sector over d'BigBoy TGR but there's more to look into about all of them.
Happy trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2641
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 22, 2007 - 03:45 pm: |
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Why I'm wary of Tassal Group T.G.R.
My chief Fundamental Concern over Tassal Group is that I read they are Suppliers to Coles and Woolworths.
This may seem a Very Good Positive Point for Tassal but I'm fully aware of this as a Key to Heartache.
Simply the Big Two are incredibly Predatory on their Suppliers.
Those slogans of Low Prices to our Customers,they say so proudly in Corporate Speak?well,they don't provide Cheapness by Cutting their own Margins.They do it by slashing the throat of their Suppliers.
They[C&Worths],in fact,approach the Supplier with initially Fair Trading Conditions for BULK.The Supplier with these contracts "set" then gears up their own Production,incurring Capital Expense,Debts etc on the Expectation They[the Suppliers]are In d'Big Time,Running with the Big Boys.Recognised at last as a Leading Supplier.
However,come contract re-negotiation time?Well Coles and Woolies can get it cheaper etc blah so the Supplier all geared up,can't go back to niche marketing again,needs cash flow,can go what 6mths?without actual profit making BUT NEEDS X bucks a month to pay all the expenses set up to become a Leading Supplier to bloody Coles and Woolworths.
Now,you might think that it Can't Happen to a Listed Company supplying Australian Product a la Tassals
but they [Tassals]better be a Monopoly Supplier.Have no Competition anywhere else in the WORLD
OR
Coles and Woolies will EAT 'em ALIVE doing business not personal.
Happy Trading.
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Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1143
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 23, 2007 - 12:25 am: |
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Not to mention the way they use the supplier as their overdraft account and financier too, they pay after they have sold the stuff in the supermarket and invested the cash for a month or two.
Tassal needs to get export contracts,(Japan etc) but who in their right mind would buy imported fish from asia, Woolies has to label the fish imported last i heard as they were dumping the asian fish grown in the sh!t ponds into the ozy health crazed ,gym jumpin enthusiasts.yuk
i take offence at you and skippa saying how dumb everyone on this forum is dotherday, especially since i bin postin a lot lately, i bein the smartest person i ever known, or were yus talkin about all the other dumb people on the forum excludin me ofcourse 
" I have my own unique system "
" I buy high and sell low "
"Money is not the main game , it is sticking to the plan, through thick and thin , unwavering from a disciplined approach to share trading "
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2643
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 23, 2007 - 10:04 am: |
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So CSS seems more d'GO.It has recently had Simplot [John West etc]come on board as a major ShareHolder.Issued Rights and a Placement at $1.35 so MAY be in for some Action.
Management Boards that raise finance by Issues to ALL ShareHolders are performing Better Governance than They who just go to those Sophisticated Investor "Sharks" alone and often.I reckon anyway.
So CSS is up for more checking out.Anyone Hold?
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 780
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 23, 2007 - 10:31 am: |
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Dug
It might pay to do some market research on CSS. I went into the supermarket a couple of weeks ago to buy some tuna -there wasn't one brand that didn't use canned Tuna from SE Asia. Cleanseas might be a nice marketing name but until I see its sourcing it from somewhere like Australia I won't be buying it.
Our local supermarket is Woolworths, you might want to look at what brands Coles have.
PS
Might be worth starting an Agricultural company list. AWB, now that its lost its monopoly is more interesting, they do a lot of soft commodity trading from their UK base. Also a company called Primeag is going to list in Dec sometime. Still looking into it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2648
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 23, 2007 - 12:04 pm: |
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Thanks for the Market Research tip,kate.It's an oldy but a goody.Eyeball the Product yourself.Don't just follow some Fancy Bean Counters dissection of the Figures and/or some consensus view of a mob of such "Professionals".
I thought CSS was that one doing AquaCulture in the Sth Aust Seas.Great Australian Bight where the White Pointers roam.Was Thinking that Style of AquaCulture not in the Ponds may get around the Disease Risk in AquaCulture.
Anyhow,look forward to your list of Agriculture Stocks incl AWB but Feel Free to set it up yourself,don't put it all on to me.You might not realise this,kate but the common opinion is that I'm a bit "weird" like best to Ignore and especially scorn.
I respect that view,kate as I respect the ones who hold it.
Yeah I just LOVE an Enemy.
regards.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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resillent1
Member
Username: resillent1
Post Number: 278
Registered: 10-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 23, 2007 - 12:14 pm: |
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Dug
I wouldn’t worry too much about TGR being able to get its product to market without being thugged. Its product is well differentiated by people’s taste buds. Its market and brand were established despite it being a high cost producer. It is now quickly slipping down the cost curve to be world competitive. With TGR it is all about fish size and that is coming through now.
CSS is interesting. The blue sky is if they can successfully bread Southern Bluefin Tuna – which will be a world first. You are paying for the bluefin blue-sky in this stock. Higher risk but also potentially high rewards. Free float on this stock is very limited, so that may be right up your ally. The Stehr family dominate the register (> 70%) and of course Futuris is there through Elders and now Simplot have a holding.
Allotment for the 10 million placement shares is 27 Nov whilst 17.5 Million rights quote on 17 Dec. The Stehr family’s holdings (75 Million) come out of Escrow on 11 Dec. Potential ammunition for some volatility.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2661
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 27, 2007 - 01:05 pm: |
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resillent 1-
I can see your point in that world-wide Salmon is considered a "Class" fish and TGR may be beyond the clutches of Coles and Woolies due to their "Best Supplier" status.
However I don't want to cover the whole sector so what do you reckon CAQ and AAQ can be "ditched",not only for being in DownTrend but also because they seem to be trying to push Barramundi onto the World,a fish they o/s have never heard of as some "Class" fish.
That is whereas TGR is supplying a Known,these other two are having to Convince with no doubt a lot of Effort.
Came across a Fish/Seafood Distributor,GSF currently roaring along as a Day Trader/Penny Delight so out with AAQ and CAQ and in with GSF for watching/considering.
As for the Tight Shareholding Question/Angle TGR&CSS.I'm wondering whether Futuris may not be "safer" to hold? Have they[Futuris] got rid of that Car AirConditioning Gizmo yet?
Elders is a mighty Base for concentrating on Agri Business,Futuris has,what can ya call it,Shady[?] reputation in the Market,does it still?Must check out Futuris.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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resillent1
Member
Username: resillent1
Post Number: 281
Registered: 10-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 27, 2007 - 01:50 pm: |
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Dug
My guess is that FCL will consolidate Aquiculture one day. It is certainly positioned to do so. Proceeds from AAC stake will need a new home – Maybe aquaculture soon?
As for investing in FCL; liquidity is certainly better, but I would be keener if they concentrated on Agriculture. They are in long-term slooowwwwww up trend. I would want to see that quicken.
Don’t know much about GSF. Is it responsible for that terrible looking long-term graph? If it’s been reborn then the recent graph looks promising.
WBA is a cheap way into TGR and you get a side serve of Walnuts, Carrots and Onions thrown in for free. If it stays at a discount it probably will be FCL’s choice vehicle for industry consolidation, they have already tried to steal it at $1.40 a while ago. Chris Corrigan is standing as a director (not supported by the board). It will be interesting to see if he gets FCL’s support.
AAQ is worth watching but only once the chart turns, facing a US$ headwind. If they get the US market established then there may be some promise. Could be years!
CAQ, I have no interest, would need a good looking chart before I would bother looking again.
WKL is the other stock missing from the list. Recently listed, chart declining, but could be worth watching for a near term (at least short term) turn around. This is the WA fish farmer that Lachlan Murdoch supposedly invested in. At a quick glance it seems to have some merit.
Cheers
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2663
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 27, 2007 - 02:43 pm: |
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Just remembered why FCL is "shady".It's because the Pure FA types don't like it's Earnings being affected by Capital Gains.Seems they can't factor this into Star Doctor because such gains are "non-recurring" even though FCL brings them in quite Regular as in the current AAC "bit".
Of course,there's the 80's Holmes a Court angle as well but I agree,resillent FCL should Fully Dump d'Car Air Conditioner "sideline" like it's Sooooo 80's!!
GSF is a Distributor.It went thru that rage awhile ago with Sams Seafood etc.It's got about 300mil shares issued now compared to less than a Million odd back 5 years ago
[Only blinked at some figures there,the one mill maynot be right[my memory's going!] BUT it was Hugely Substantially Less Listed then to Now.More proof of me angle,hey resil?]
Anyway,I like new Issues,just listed, so thanks for pointing out WKL.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2667
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 28, 2007 - 11:03 am: |
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resillent 1-
Noticed yesterday you referred to a Long Term Chart[3 years+] of GSF and expressed "dismay" at it's fall from grace price-wise.
I got the following figures from Aspect of Shares Listed-
6/04-1.2 million#; 6/05-15.2 mil;6/06 301.5mil and Now-453mil.
By applying the Equation for finding Market Capitalisation
Shares on Issuexprice=Market Cap
one finds currently that GSF's Market Capitalisation is the Highest it's been in at least the last three years.
Now obviously Chart has been adjusted to take in this Wild Increase in Shares Listed.I don't know much at all about how that's done.
I assume it's Relative but I wonder if it has some Maths Effect that you CAN"T use the "new" pricexListed to get a Historical Market Cap?
because I figure that by tracking Market Cap differences Year2Year is effective in breaking down the Actual Price Movement that has occured Years ago to Now.One is not so OverAwed by the price Collapse if you know the Company is Actually worth More Now to then.
The Chart-
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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resillent1
Member
Username: resillent1
Post Number: 282
Registered: 10-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 | |
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