Archive through November 09, 2007
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3306
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 11:13 am: | 
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The Banks
Broker/Dealers
*** as a follow up, the banks are stabilising but the brokers, the likes of GS, MER, MWD and LEH... I reckon the investors over there are having some serious doubt on their "exposures".
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1098
Registered: 10-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 12:40 pm: |
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HC,
Do you think you are too far ahead of the game ?
You raised these issues months ago, and only now the media is catching on to the Level 3 asset pricing.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=1241 43#POST124143
Hope you like my new signature.
" I have my own unique system "
" I buy high and sell low "
"Money is not the main game , it is sticking to the plan, through thick and thin , unwavering from a disciplined approach to share trading "
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3307
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 01:53 pm: |
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MS,
I am not sure why you like to ask me stuffs coz I have no desire at all to make you more clever or more dumb than what you already are. Regarding your signature I think it's "fitting" to your personality. You should at all times adhere to it... now that you got my response I guess you know where to go?
~~~~~~~~
Ok, since someone has raised a stupid question that whatever I crap about is always too early... I got a little exasperated, just feel sorry for myself that I have to explain again.
...let me see if I can recall some of my comments - not too long ago I was commenting that US$ would be flushing down the toilet and price of gold, oil and commodities would be going up as a form of "compensation" for their loss in value. So, did anyone buy gold oil and commodity stocks? No? Ok, tough. (I even provided a price target for gold, 816-820, I think somewhere...)
I also commented there would be some rally because of more liquidity, and... guess what there was some rally recently. And as far as I am concerned, that was liquidity driven.
And if you were to pay close attention to the US$/AUD X, you probably can detect there "seem" to be some kind of relationship with the local equity market. This bit, I didn't mention coz this one is just my gut feel. So, this don't count.
And now most/all the investment banks in the USA are facing the ultimate music and are forced to either come clean, or face more rumours and speculations, either which is not good for their share price, and I am raising the question now, asking others to use their brain and imagine what it mean for other that have yet to come clean, and for the locals - are they that good to be so bullet proof?
...but if people don't wanna use their brain, or they can only be some kind of hindsight hero, looking at the rear mirror all the time and make smart comments... there isn't much others can do. On top of that, they are supposed to have charts!
Anyway, who cares. It's their money.
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3308
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 08:28 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2uon8z
The Federal Reserve sees the latest bout of financial market turmoil as driven by two factors: a wave of rating downgrades of housing-related credits and increased fear over economic fundamentals, above all the outlook for the housing market.
Underlying all this is the same “information problem” that has plagued markets since the credit crisis began at the end of July: noone knows how large the losses will ultimately be, or how they will be distributed among financial entities.
Since mid-October, the value of supposedly safe AAA-rated tranches of collateralised debt obligations with mortgage exposure has fallen sharply, driven by rating downgrades, worsening conditions in housing and further increases in mortgage delinquency rates.
Some renewed weakness in the markets was not surprising to policymakers, who were bemused by how bullish investors were in early October. But the extent of the latest declines in higher-rated CDOs disappointed some officials, who hoped that the market had already discounted the looming downgrades and further housing weakness.
Policymakers say it is difficult for them to determine in real time whether investors are ahead of the curve or behind the curve in pricing securities to reflect the economic outlook and future rating actions. However, it is now clear investors fell behind the curve by mid-October and have since been racing to catch up with financial and economic developments.
Commercial and investment banks hold a lot of higher-rated CDOs and were exposed to mark-to-market losses when their value fell.
However, Fed officials believe that the fall in banks’ stock prices also reflects their inability to dispel a cloud of doubt that hangs over their credibility. After a short-lived burst of confidence triggered by early disclosure of losses, further bad news punctured faith in banks’ ability to value their complex holdings and offsetting hedges, and to communicate the full extent of likely losses...
*** it's raining in Melbourne. Yippee! It's raining on the Yankie banks... doh!
1) still the same old news regurgitated, except with each repetition, time is running out a little, but rest assure with each turn, and eventually, the time and "laws" will catch up with them and then... they will all have to face a Pauline Hanson's "please explain"...
2) So far the facts are: the cdo's are too complex to decipher, which translated means everyone if possible, is hiding everything and anything under the "complex" blanket - of course it is complex if you are not allowed to look into the books!
3) And then they said they can't determine how much damage is still outstanding due to the complexity - read, if they can't open the books, read the numbers - of course they can't determine how big the damages are! From another angle, they probably do not want to find out because if they do, I mean the FEDs and the "laws" or the "authority" - they may have to put a gun to BB's head and ask him to lower rate another 17 times!
...which might as well, since there's really not much difference between using a 20dollar note or a 100 dollar note to light a cigar or wipe my bum. Really!
4) Over here, http://tinyurl.com/3c7vf5, just in case you missed this - Investors were pricing in 80 per cent odds of another US rate cut by the end of the year on futures markets.Now, I am not sure if the Yanks are aware of this or not - their wealth is slowly draining and shifting away from them and being redistributed throughout the world with the main beneficiaries, the Chinese, the Middle Easters, the Japanese, the Koreans, the South East Asians, the Aussies, the Canadians, the South Americans, the Indians,... have I missed out anyone yet?
Hmmm,...
ps: is this why everyone is so friggin' bullish in the equity market? Huh?
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3309
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 08:36 am: |
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... yeah, forgot to add this line - Merry Xmas everyone! Rejoice and be hap hap happy! If you are having the night watch for Santa Claus and his presents, look west instead of looking North... he now lives in the USA and has adopted a Yankie name - BB Claus!
HOHOHOHO...
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3310
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 09:48 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/34e5uh - Crash is coming, warns top investor
THE man responsible for investing $41 billion of the State's money has warned mum-and-dad investors to prepare for a massive sharemarket crash.
He says a dramatic downturn is inevitable as the rapid rate of investment is unsustainable, and the repercussions of the $300 billion subprime lending crisis in the US are yet to be felt fully...
*** ok, he said it, not me! My take is still this - trade short term, watch your cash:equity. Forget long term!
... does anyone care?
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3321
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 08:40 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2ruta7 - PetroChina tops $1 trillion market cap in debut
*** one by one, the biggest, the largest, the most... whatever, is slowly taken away from the USA. Bit by bit, the prestige of the super-power run by a dumbo is being removed, eventually to a state of "dumbness". But that's not the worst outcome.
The worst outcome is when the Americans realise they have run out of money to consume. Or rather when her creditors refuse to accept their banana notes as the medium of exchange. Will that day come?
Well, it might, if BB Claus continues to let Paulson and the Wallstreeters to play him like a puppet.
Without TRUST, the mighty US$ is nothing... don't these big time bankers ever learn?
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3323
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 08:14 am: |
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... a picture is worth a thousand words...
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3324
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 08:55 am: |
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It's quite ironical that some of the best minds in economics, finance, science, technology, and blah blah blah are residing in the USA... and yet, these brains are willing to let a person well known for not being bright to lead them, and lead their country.
... with a devastating result!
So they are letting their currency drop to reduce their debt owing to others. A very clever idea? Short term - may be. Longer term? Let's just hope the US$ doesn't lose its appeal as the defacto currency of trade. Because if it does, the USA is bound for a BIG R. Before that, they may live through a period of galloping inflation.
History, has provided many many examples. And many of these "predecessors" had committed "sin" much much smaller in scope and scale than what GWB's adminstration is committing currently. Will the bubble burst?
... we will see.
http://tinyurl.com/3ya2av
Zimbabwe...
http://tinyurl.com/zvssy
http://tinyurl.com/2juuhn
Argentina...
http://tinyurl.com/2o2ny5
http://tinyurl.com/2ub7dq
http://tinyurl.com/35te8u
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3325
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 09:28 am: |
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... if you think the govt with its pool of brains and specialists will be able to curb and control the train wreck, here's the advice - don't count on it!
Don't believe? Take a look at Northern Rock's problem and the UK govt's response - they gave an open ended "guarantee" to assure the depositors. And what's the cost to save this piece of Rock? Go find out.
Now think a little further - what if the second Rock appears? What if another bank gets a run? (http://tinyurl.com/2xbayy) With a similar guarantee, my feeling is this will soon run out of control and send the UK into bankruptcy.
... it all started because someone went into a panic and wanted to save a lousily run bank!?
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3326
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 02:56 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2ztbfe - Japan’s leading indicator falls to zero
Japan’s index of leading economic indicators hit zero for the first time in a decade in September, the government said on Tuesday, serving up a fresh reminder that the country’s recovery may be stumbling.
The index, an amalgam of a dozen indicators tracking everything from industrial inventories to consumer confidence and durable goods shipments, bottomed out for the first time since 1997, meaning all its constituent data worsened compared with three months earlier.
Masaaki Kanno, senior economist at JPMorgan, said: “The message is clear. All the indicators are telling us the same thing, which is that general economic conditions have deteriorated since the summer time.”
Japan’s five-year expansion has produced jumps in corporate profits but has done little to stimulate consumption and wage growth among average workers. A sharp downturn in the US – an increasingly likely prospect – would threaten the export businesses that have been the strongest engine of growth...
*** there's only ONE solution to solve the USA-JAPAN problem - swap govt! Let GWB's team run Japan and let Japan's team run the USA. The Japanese will surely deflate all the BS in the general admin while inflate the US$; whilst the Yanks will talk up the growth and generate plenty of inflation with their hotair, at the same time depreciate the YEN...
A Perfect match!
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3327
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 03:37 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2m84d8
...The one bright side: The sliding buck h | | |
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