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     holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 3351
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Saturday, November 10, 2007 - 09:56 am: | 
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... the news in the USA this morning,... can't help, but giving me a sense of apocalypse. Take a look at some of them:
The only good news - http://tinyurl.com/ysa8td - Trade Deficit Declines in September
Bad news galore here...
http://tinyurl.com/2r5q7m - Stocks Down on Credit, Economic Worries
http://tinyurl.com/2r7nyt - Wachovia Credit-Loss, Loan Reserves Reach $1.7 Bln (Update6)
http://tinyurl.com/36np2u - Dollar Sinks to New Low Against Euro
http://tinyurl.com/2oxrw4 - Consumer sentiment tumbles
http://tinyurl.com/3ct355 - Homeowners Feel the Pinch of Lost Equity
Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of all economic activity in the United States, or about $9.8 trillion, so even a slight dip in home borrowing takes huge amounts of money out of the flow. The prospect of a slowdown, combined with the squeeze on households from higher oil costs, is sending shivers through the retail world, as apparel merchants, furniture dealers and electronics stores brace for the possibility that the all-important holiday shopping season will disappoint. Automakers are bemoaning sluggish sales.
“A fall of 2 percent in consumption would be big enough to trigger a recession,” said Christian Menegatti, lead analyst for RGE Monitor, a consulting firm in New York.
 
Major Banks
Brokers
*** take a closer look at the banks and the brokers/dealers and compare them with their performance previously... what do we see? Here're some general observations and assumptions:
1) those banks and brokers that are in red means they are being treated by the market suspiciously.
2) For those that have come clean in the last few days with their "additional" write-downs and have been punished accordingly - those that had turned green means they are off the hook for the time being (the market kind of forgive them,..., ie, until the next confession period.). Those that are still in red with a smaller cut, means, they are still in jail, they didn't get to pass GO, and they didn't get the $200 bonus, and chances are they will get another flogging very soon... let's wait and watch.
3) just in case you can't see how much NASD was getting - it was down 2.52%. Add that to yesterday's intraday low of about 3.6%, you are looking at close to 6% loss in two days, and both are done in style and in high volume fashion - 3bln +-. What are these telling us?
RUN!
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
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Username: holycow
Post Number: 3352
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 10, 2007 - 10:25 am: |
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...Shhhh!... want to read some "lies" or utter nonsense? Read this...
http://tinyurl.com/ysa8td
..."The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II and there is a reason. We are the biggest economy in the world. We are as open as any economy to investment," ...
...despite the current troubles in housing and the credit markets, the U.S. economy would continue to expand because "you are going to see our strong economic fundamentals ... shine through."
*** a lot of chest beating, a lot of garlic breath oozing out from this gentleman's gap, if you look closely, there's a tiny little foot stuck in between that set of fake denture.
Now... here's a contest - guess who said that. To make it easier, just pick from one of the following:
1) John Howard
2) Peter Costello
3) George W Bush
4) Donkey Kong
5) Bill Gates
6) US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
7) Hu Jintao
8) Holycow
9) Pauline Hanson
10) Bilbo Baggins
*** hint, pick wisely, choose the most unusual entry. Pick the ugliest person, like some kind of baldy... coz liars or crooks or bad guys are usually look like this in movies.
**** prizes - if you win, ie, if you pick the correct entry, you'll get an IOU from me, which is a US$1, which in turn is an IOU from the US govt, which base on the current depreciation rate, your US$1 probably would be worth 40 cent in Aussie by the end of this year. If you don't claim it from me within 24 hours, then, sorry, I will have to charge you US$2 in one year's time for storage.
If you lose, well, man... I will tell your mum about this!
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3353
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Saturday, November 10, 2007 - 10:28 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2vm6cg
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3355
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 10, 2007 - 02:11 pm: |
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...man, I have been going around various forum and everyone is talking about BHP and RIO - how good, how bad, how much, how this, how that... interesting time and good topic for discussion over some beer. So here's my take... or I don't call meself holycow for nothing.
1) it's still a long way to go, and it may not even happen. And when it happens, the market would have either completely priced into t/o, or merger or whatever. And it probably will take another 2 or 3 years to see some real benefit flowing through barring the initial "cost saving" which is usually tied with mass sacking of excess labour force, which looking from the negative side (what else?) could potentially raise the unemployment numbers, increase demand on social support, denting the consumer confidence... and possibly more when I have time to think further.
2) China is slowing down... the slowing down could accelerate next year and may get worse possibly after the Olympics. The process of T/O may take a while, and hey, you never can tell, it may just catch the down turn spot on!  and well, just imagine BHP's dilemma - coffer gone empty by 140bln, resources double or triple or quadruple... whatever, but demand is slowing.. what next? Let's hope there's no floods, cyclones, hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis!
Other than all the above hazards, we have to rule out World War 3 as suggested by the French President, nuclear war in Middle East, Space war among the Asians, Border/terrirory regional war between China, India, Japan, Vietnam and Russia! Then there is Pakistan against India, Afghanistan against the UN, Artic War among Canada, Russia and the USA and China, the Middle East... what else?
3) So barring all the above threats, potential threats, potential disasters, potential human catastrophes, let's take a look at BHP's share price - oopsy! Down 77c, 1.78% after the announcement, and probably will go down some more if they continue talking about the T/O.
And the recent high of 47.70 and yesterday's close of 42.47, down 11% thus far... hmmm, what's happening? Hello?
4) and the ultimate market signal - why does BHP want to spend so much money for a company at the current inflated price? Why?
If you want to see the biggest contrarian signal sending out by this bull market - here it is!
... maximum boom! Next?
Bust!
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3358
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 11, 2007 - 07:33 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2fujz5 - Road to Ruin, by Doug Noland
*** a lot of numbers for those who like numbers, a lot of texts for those who like words, a lot of fear for those who like scary movies, and a lot of sensible questions and issues raised by Doug for those who are seeking for answers.
It's up to individual to find what's useful from Doug's write up here.
As for me, I found the following graphs interesting and these are my observations - note the acceleration of credit since 04, I would assert that the rallies in the commodity and equity markets worldwide as a direct result of the rise in credits. The question looking forward from this point is therefore: a) if it continues, expect the rallies to continue, until b) there's a contraction in credit supplies.
To support this point, note the last graph on credit market borrowings in 1999 and 2000, the credits were turned off or slowed in these two years causing the tech bubble to burst (big assumption here, so, not going to argue this point, up to each individual to draw their own conclusion).
To verify this assumption I guess would be quite direct - watch the credit borrowings in 2007/2008/09, once they begin to level out or taper off, expect the rallies to tank.
It would be nice if some one can supplement the 2007 figures up to 2007 for a quick peek... anyone?
ps: QUESTION: does anyone ever question or wonder if the credits bubble (in speed and size) will ever burst? And hurt their investment in equity market?
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1994
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Sunday, November 11, 2007 - 09:47 pm: |
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Following with interest HC.
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2007.00143.x
That link possibly comes at it from another angle, but similar conclusions.
Interestingly it is a global malady - this link from the Bank of Israel highlights the growth of credit for the first half of 2007, which surged to an unprecedented 21%.
http://www.bankisrael.gov.il/press/eng/070930/070930s.htm
And finally for further research for the faithful, there are some links-within-links here
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3359
Registered: 08-2004
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| | Monday, November 12, 2007 - 08:42 am: |
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http://www.bondheads.com/the_Fed.htm
Ingot,
Thanks for the links.
There were a series of rate rise in 1999-2000 (see table in link), I think this might be part of the reason the tech bubble started bursting back in March 2000.
Currently, I think the global equity bubble is being affected by two major forces. On the one hand, the FEDs and BB are hellbent to prevent a recession by lowering rate, while the otherside which is much more powerful is the credit crunch forcing upon the credit market.
This state of flux will resolve itself eventually (one way or other), but regardless which side is winning, the consequence is still a lose-lose result for the investors. If the FEDs and BB wins, we are looking at a bubble equity market of much lower value due to the depreciating dollars and possibly years of high inflationary economic environment. If the credit crunch wins, I think we are looking at a recession and possibly sharp equity market correction (crash!).
... so, still coming to my same old conclusion - long term investing? Nah... not until I can see a clearer way out of either a recession or a crash (> -20%) or a severe correction (<= -20%).
Cheers.
ps: Please note - this is just my POV. Could be wrong completely...
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3360
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 12, 2007 - 09:15 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/32jcd8 - Your man in China should be a woman
WENDY Simpson believes the best man for the job may be a woman when it comes to Australian companies wanting to do business in China.
...
"Women have the kind of manner and rapport that gets on well with the Chinese," says Simpson, who speaks Mandarin and visits China every few weeks. "The Chinese are very relationship-focused - they are not transaction-focused," she says.
"You have to have a relationship with them first, before you do business. It's all about trust.
"The Chinese are interested in developing long-term relationships." ...
*** if you know Chinese writing, the word "surname" in Chinese is a combination of two words - "woman""birth". And the word "good" is a combination of "woman""man" - woman comes first!
In fact, many Chinese historians believe the ancient Chinese followed a matriacrhal system.
The present day Chinese system? Well, this my believe - the man is in charge of "external" or outside matters, whilst woman is in charge of "internal/household" matters - Hu Jintao may be the Chinese President, but once back in his home, he has to kowtow to his wife! If not, his mother!
(Think about it, there's really not much difference in Australia either - Johnny Howard, in the privacy of his castle probably would be asking Janet how high she wants him to jump when she barks the order...doh!)
Anyway, woman or man, I think the keywords are still these - trust and relationship - either which takes time.
Chinese social etiquette usually emphasises highly on "li", which means courtesy, politeness and non-aggresive mannerism, this is something I think the women were much more adept than men.
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3361
Registered: 08-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 12, 2007 - 09:41 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2dlylv - Sinking dollar, rising portfolio
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3362
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, November 12, 2007 - 04:13 pm: |
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... as I was commenting this morning on women to be more suited for post in China coz they are more adept in picking up the Chinese social etiquette of good manners, courtesy, etc... now, if there's anyone who don't get what I was saying and need an illustration on why men are less suitable because of ego problem, please let me know...
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
|
holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3363
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 12, 2007 - 04:31 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/ywb3wa - Yen shock may prompt next wave of market crisis
LONDON (Reuters) - Just as renewed waves of forced asset sales and bank write-downs risk turning this year's credit market turmoil into a vicious circle, the Japanese yen looks set to deliver another shock to global markets.
An accelerating slide in the U.S. dollar (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research) this week has been driven by a growing conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced into further steep interest rate cuts.
And as dollar losses against the yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.
Sudden losses on these trades -- which thrive when currency market volatility is low -- could force speculative hedge funds to cut other market bets to fund those losses, and also reverse the flood of Japanese money invested overseas in recent years.
"The potential for a further carry unwind -- presuming we are now in a second wave of risk aversion -- is quite high now," said Michael Metcalfe, senior strategist at State Street.
"These waves of risk aversion are washing through markets one after the other and seem to be hitting the credit markets first, then equity markets and then the FX markets," added Metcalfe. "It's what happened in July and August and it seems to be what's happening again now."...
*** when it rains, it pours! For those who were bragging about being fully invested and no fear, blah blah blah not too long ago... don't be shy, make yourself known now, so I can monitor your progress.
HC
Look at a man's acts; watch his motives; find out what pleases him: can the man evade you?
... the essence of chart reading
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2565
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 12, 2007 - 05:39 pm: |
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