XJO
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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3521
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 29, 2007 - 10:53 pm: |  
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BHP/XJO 2day
1) This is one view on where XJO will be going. I am throwing this idea to the ewave practitioners as some sort of correlational analysis on the XJO. Hopefully they can do a better job than me in analysing the ewave structure of the XJO.
2) A potential driver for the XJO target is probably the much anticipated rate decision by the FEDs on DEC 13 (I think, not checked).
3) Disclaimer - HC is an ewave novice, so, don't trust this analysis. Please.
4) At pt. A in the XJO chart, if the price were to drop beyond its recent low, I think the index will be looking at 6200 and lower, probably somewhere in the region near 5700. jmv in my other analysis.
5) Note too the negative RSI divergence in both charts.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 826
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 01, 2007 - 06:25 am: |
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Hi HC,
Don't bother with elliot wave analysis (someone will display the wave count if interested), the indicators and price action suggest an XAO breakout is occurring.
Daily chart: if the MACD crosses, and the RSI breaks out of the short term downtrend(as suggested by the CCI) then the christmas rally is here with bells on.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3524
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 01, 2007 - 12:22 pm: |
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Tryhay,
1) let's wait for follow through buying in the next couple of days. I think the 29/30's market rally has a lot to do with option expiring as well as the US rally in response to the "hint" of more rate cut - at this point, at best I would call the local rally as "reactionary".
2) the XJO rally is very much a BHP story. Without BHP and RIO, I think, there isn't much of a rally to look at. And between the charts of BHP and XJO, BHP has shown (at least to me) a very clear 5 waves structure and is now moving into its ABC corrective waves - if my analysis is right, then, I would conclude at this point, this round of rally will not last and it won't break into new high. It is very easy to verify this view - let's watch if BHP will lead XJO into making a new high. If it fails, then, we know the so called "new bull market" is stillborn...
Cheers.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3618
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 06:00 pm: |
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BHP/XJO daily
1) the above chart but expressed in daily data, it seems the ewave pattern is quite valid. Next, watch the short term rebound.
HC
... one day...!
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mosaic1996
Member
Username: mosaic1996
Post Number: 1396
Registered: 01-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 29, 2007 - 08:12 pm: |
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Still in 5 year constant growth channel.
Main worry is that the internals/advance decline ratio is a bit sick.
Cheers,
Mosaic
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 860
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 29, 2007 - 10:39 pm: |
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Nice chart mosaic1996. Volatility is commonly a problem at this time of year, and the updated daily chart shows an attempt to swing higher IMO ~ looks like ~6700 is a key area of resistance.
XAO Daily chart:
On a somewhat related matter commodities look popular lately, perhaps will have impact on the xao direction...
Gold chart: close to the breakout thingie
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3664
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, January 07, 2008 - 04:25 pm: |
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RIO/BHP Daily
1) At this point, I would say the merger hope for BHP is getting colder by the day...
2) If the merger were to call off, expect RIO to drop back to around 110, my bet.
3) BHP, judging by the relative lack of sellers at the support level, including today, my bet is 40.00 will probably hold... but the overall bearish topping pattern is a worry.
HC
... one day...!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3704
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 11:48 am: |
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XJO Daily
1) The index has just hit my lower target...
2) 17th Jan is the option expiry day for this month, any chance of a short covering later today?
3) The market has lost 15% since its peak, and 8% since the initial breakdown
4) The Q: so, do you reckon the market will drop further? Anything below 20% would be considered a "serious" bear market in my book... will they want to see another 5% additional drop and risk losing market momentum?
5) Is there any more super fund left? I mean your compulsory contribution every month? Don't they fund manager have this "urge" to spend your money for you?
6) Summary: this may be a day of decision, so, hasty decision may work against your interest! And mine! 
HC
... one day...!
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