Archive through November 21, 2007
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     kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 771
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 09:41 am: | 
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Very interesting results overseas, the US markets doing well but Europe only just plodding along. The SPI up over 100 points. I envy you being able to watch the action while I have to go to a meeting.
Any idea why Europe so sluggish or did the DOW etc go up after the European markets closed?
Got to go.
Kate
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3379
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 09:53 am: |
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Kate,
I think the Europeans are less gullible than the yanks! 
I think the Europeans are more disciplined and are taking the threat of inflation more seriously than the Americans, if you were to watch the Central bank action across the Atlantic. There's no case for joy as far as they are concerned - and I agree with them.
Cheers.
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HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3380
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 09:55 am: |
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*** found this in here, http://tinyurl.com/234nk5, you can make your own case.
A word of warning. Each quarter US hedge funds open a 45-day window in which investors can notify their intention to withdraw funds. Once the window closes, investors then have to wait another quarter before the next opportunity arises. The last 45-day window closed on August 15. On August 14 the Dow fell 208 points and on August 15 167 points to close at 12,846 - the credit crunch low. Once notified of redemptions, hedge funds must sell positions to raise the cash. This quarter's 45-day window closes on Thursday, November 15. After last night's rally we are 461 points above the August low. How many investors have been holding on to decide whether to stick at it, or to get out? Holding stocks this last quarter has not provided any meaningful return.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 2001
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 03:40 pm: |
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Why the Housing Sector Collapse is Wonderful
What? How could THAT be?
There is a nice explanation worth looking at here, but for those who have limited time, here is the upshot:
If you want to be a great investor, you have to buy good companies when their prices are exceptionally attractive. You only get that chance with the best companies in the midst of a crisis.
The collapse of the homebuilding sector is a wonderful challenge. Although I think many homebuilders will soon go bankrupt, at least a handful will survive.
And since all of these companies are now trading for more than 50% off their highs, it's probably not too soon to take a serious look.
Now, I can hear a few voices muttering ..."What has that got to do with us?"
Just this ... the PRINCIPLE has everything to do with investors.
No doubt you have heard of people who buy BHP every time it is down by 10%.
Need more help ... then perhaps try the Yellow Pages under "Financial Advice".
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3384
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 03:55 pm: |
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Ingot,
I agree! That's the way to invest, buy when no one wants to have anything to do with it... timing wise, I think this can wait a little longer though.
Incidentally, someone was also suggesting investing into Citi(bank) which I thought was quite a good suggestion sometimes next year.
Cheers.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3393
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 06:32 pm: |
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http://tinyurl.com/2udj4l - Expecting A Recession
http://tinyurl.com/2m4v7n - Indicators Suggest US Recession Is Near
...four indicator rule-of-thumb for impending recession is based on a widening in credit spreads, a moderate or flat yield curve, falling stock prices and a weak ISM Purchasing Manufacturers Index, and as a group they are providing evidence of a deteriorating economy and rising credits risks...
*** from higher authority... and we are all going to die!
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3394
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:10 am: |
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http://tinyurl.com/263266 - here is a story about Mike Mayo that tells a lot about him and his integrity. (Read: I trust his view more than others)
http://tinyurl.com/ythjym - here is Mike's remark on Merill and here's something people (you!) should take some precaution...
Q. How long will it take for the sub-prime crisis to play out?
A. It could take two to three years. The question is whether other issues will appear. There have been auto loan problems and problems in real estate construction.
Q. What happens to Merrill now?
A. The good news is that seven-eighths of the firm is performing well. Only 100 or so employees out of 64,000 caused the lion's share of the write-downs. Having said that, this one-eighth of the company, especially the CDO portion, seems much more exposed to additional problems. There could be $5 billion to $10 billion in additional write-downs in the fourth quarter. That could trigger ratings downgrades and possible regulatory involvement...
Here're further comments from Mike...
http://tinyurl.com/33xe9s
Just how big could those losses be? Both Mayo and analyst Meredith Whitney of CIBC project that write-downs could total $50 billion or more by the end of the year. Longer term, Mayo sees losses climbing to $70 to $100 billion. The wide range simply underscores the uncertainty surrounding subprime. "This will take two to three years to play out," says Mayo, explaining that it will take that long for lenders to foreclose on troubled mortgages and sell the collateral - in this case, hundreds of thousands of homes - to recoup part of their loans.
*** try imagine this - so far, most have only seen the first wave of confession, which is not the worst among most banks/investment banks barring Merrill. The next wave of confession is just another 2 to 3 months away, and as pointed out by Mike M, the market over there may have to deal with some fairly bad news in the likes of downgrade and regulatory probes + possibly new regulations... with uncertainties such as these, well, be brave if you must, party if you must, just make sure you don't dump all your dole into stock, and, yes,...just make sure you're not the last one to leave!
Now good luck and may your god go with you... (gee, luv this line, it makes me feel like John Wayne walking into sunset! Hmmm,... must use it more often! Yeehaa!)
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3395
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:56 am: |
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Major Banks
Brokers
 
*** the banks... they are not as healthy as you think. Note the last half hour plunge in the indices - it seems there're delaying implementing the confession rules, which naturally provided the fuel for further speculation, which of course and naturally was to the negative side, and the fear generated,... as the record shows, was enough to plunge the index down. As usual, you can expect the market will turn out worse tomorrow when people/analysts start raising issues on why and what... the only conclusion they can come to is this - it must be causing big sh*t or else they wouldn't try to water it down or bury it somewhat!
See... this is how the regulators collaborate with the vested interest over there. And they do that btw, in the name of not scaring the market! It's done for the sake of everyone of course!
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 772
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 12:17 pm: |
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The Chinese has tried so many times to slow down the economy unsuccessfully. I wonder if this will work? Personally, I have no idea.
http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=7278&setSub=1
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3401
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 01:55 pm: |
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Kate,
This is an interesting question. Need to think a little on it. Will come back to you later.
Cheers.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 773
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 03:37 pm: |
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Hi HC
I've been thinking about all that new building that might cease - less Copper and steel spring to mind?
Then my mind jumps to the thought of Nickel and iron ore and then it jumps to the future iron ore negotiations and the possible merger of BHP and RIO which would mean the Chinese would be over a(pricing)barrel.
I have this tendency to be a bit of a conspiracy theorist so you shouldn't take anything I say very seriously. However, should I even be slightly right, I'd say it serves BHP right.
Regards
Kate
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3403
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 05:25 pm: |
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Kate,
1) if you have time, may be you should spend sometimes doing some research for yourself on Japan's modernisation after the WW2 because whatever happened to them, there's a good chance that a large part of it will happen to China, at a much bigger scale.
This is looking from the top, at a big picture. Once you start digging beneath the surface, they begin to diverge - for example, the Japanese were quite self sufficient on hydro power, they had good support from the USA in all areas: adminstration, finance and tech transfer. It's a long story...
2) I think a very natural conclusion here by referring to the Japanese experience is China's modernisation will take probably twice as long, with demand on most raw materials probably twice or many times as much.
3) But one thing for sure, the modernisation process will not be progressing in a straight line. We should expect it to be in some kind of wave patterns, or cycles, where each growth phase will be closely followed by a recessing phase; otherwise their whole economy, the whole social system will be too overheated, too polarised and possibly breaking into chaos.
To date, China has gone for a period of 12 years (could be wrong, since it's from memory) of growth (ave 8-12% growth) with in between short period of recess. The question we each have to ask is can she continue with this kind of growth without stopping for breath?
The signals I am getting thus far are, briefly:
a) inflation at all time high, and is getting higher;
b) banking reserves has been raised and raised and interest rates has been raised so many times that I now have lost track of what it is;
3) social dislocation is happening and spreading - fuel rationing for eg; recently 2 people died in a stampede to buy cheap cooking oil! Many are doing it tough over there, and they are the majority poor;
4) the rich? a relatively small number - wealth distribution has been very very uneven over there; I am frankly quite skeptical on the consumers' ability to consume, say comparing with the Americans or the Europeans;
5) ... it's getting all over the place... sorry, will stop here. I think I can write a book on this!
There are many symptoms and signals which frankly are indicating China is in need of a recess (or rest) before it can pick herself up again. As a rule of thumb, I would guess at this point, it won't last beyond the Olympics. My own bet is it probably will drastically slow down well before there.
For your reading pleasure and research, here are two links on Japan:
http://tinyurl.com/36owz6 - Japanese econ miracle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_of_Japan
Cheers.
HC
... hopelessly addicted to charts!
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 3409
Registered: 08-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 16, 2007 - 09:00 am: |
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