Annual IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... ...

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yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2449
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 14, 2007 - 10:58 am:

Hi folks,

With the weekly tipping contest well established, here's
an opportunity for long-term traders to show us their
stockpicking skills ... :-)

Welcome to IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... !~!

Place your entries in here. New tipster's always welcome.

Be VERY SURE of your entry, because NO CHANGES will be made

ENTRY CONDITIONS

Please ensure that all entries are made in the following format and on one line.

poster (lower case) ASX CODE (UPPER CASE)
L - S - (UPPER CASE) with shorts S in RED

e.g.: poster XYZ L

Please post details on the same line as per the above example.

Leave one line space before greetings, salutations and 'stock ramping'.

Deadline for all entries: Midnight 31 December 2007.

..... and here's the rules:

1) The competition is for one year. Starting on
Wednesday 2 January 2008 and finishing on Wednesday 31 December 2008.

2) Only ONE stock (per year) may be nominated by any
competitor ... only fully paid ordinary shares please.
No options, warrants or derivatives will be entered.

3) You must post a chart. No chart - no entry.

It is also desirable, that you briefly explain your
reasons for making your choice. Captions within charts
are acceptable. The purpose of the chart is to clearly
illustrate the reasons for your choice.

Note: For reasons of clarity Colin has requested that there
should be no more than two indicators per chart. If you wish
to show more indicators then please post two or more charts.

4)You must obey the Forum rules.
i.e. ... no disrespect to other members.

5) Shorts are allowed - subject to the following guidelines:-

Anyone can enter a short - but it will be the responsibility
of the entrant to ensure that it's on the official ASX list.

If any other competitors lodge a protest that the stock is
not on the list - and that proves to be the case - then
instant disqualification will follow. This link is available
to verify shorts http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

6) The judge's decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into.

7) All entries will start with closing price, on 31122007.

8) Results will only be updated on a MONTHLY basis.

Cheers

paul

:-)

=====

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3288
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 14, 2007 - 11:04 am:

Hilarius BHP L

Based on fundamentals and strong uptrend

Incredible Charts
Free Charting Software

Auto-Fit Trendlines

Trend Channels

Linear Regression
Channels

Raff Regression
Channels

Standard Deviation
Channels

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

dug

Member

Post Number: 2726
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 14, 2007 - 01:23 pm:

dug DYE L

Chart and Ramp later after seeing what Standards I have to meet but
ya heard it hear first.
Origin could TakeOver DYE next year!!
What?at about Half a Billion Oz $$$!!

further BHP could plummet on the Post Olympic China Meltdown.[Historically the Olympics cause recession after-effects]
Besides,dem Commies ain't gunner take this BHP high hand Ploy!and all them conservative millionaire retired types chockers in Buy,Hold 'n'Pray are going to remember WHY they hated Commies.

Happy trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

Member

Post Number: 2727
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 14, 2007 - 04:05 pm:

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

may

Member

Post Number: 34
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 17, 2007 - 07:53 am:

may TPI L

Owned and run by a man who started from nothing in a business nobody likes doing - waste management. Listed less than 3 years ago but been in operation around 20 years. He owns in excess of 76 million shares - one tends to look after an investment of that magnitude.

Currently experiencing an orderly consolidation. Upside breakout currently has higher potential as it is in a well established uptrend.

Happy investing.

tpi

coyotte

Member

Post Number: 381
Registered: 12-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 17, 2007 - 10:08 pm:

Question ? :

are divs & etc added on to the Final Price ?

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

philr

Member

Post Number: 315
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 17, 2007 - 11:19 pm:

philr FDL L

fdl

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

rockon

Member

Post Number: 244
Registered: 08-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 06:49 am:

rockon TTY L

Hopefully a big year coming up with aggressive exploration, acquisitions and increasing revenues. All iron ore is shipped from port of Darwin which hasn't got the bottlenecks and queuing problems of other ports so basically a very streamlined operation.

Thanks to any and all organisers.

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2455
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 18, 2007 - 10:43 am:

Hi Coyotte,

Due to time constraints here, this challenge has to be
kept as simple as possible ... so NO DIVIDENDS will
be taken into account ... only percentage gain/loss.

have a great day

paul

:-)

=====

}}

redrover

Member

Post Number: 793
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 21, 2007 - 10:30 am:

redrover FUN L

fun chart

As you can see from the chart FUN has plummeted about as low as it can go. However, the company has very sound fundamentals and good prospects for 2008. I suspect that the current drop in share price is an over-reaction by the market to a profit warning & loss of a CEO.

Special thanks to Yogi and best wishes to all my old friends

holycow

Member

Post Number: 3642
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 21, 2007 - 12:07 pm:

Holycow ILU L

ILU Weekly

1) target 7.00+

HC

... one day...!

chriso

Member

Post Number: 84
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 21, 2007 - 01:49 pm:

chriso SGL L

dendrobium

Member

Post Number: 66
Registered: 04-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, December 22, 2007 - 08:28 pm:

dendrobium TAP L

tap

jimmyswell

Member

Post Number: 160
Registered: 07-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, December 23, 2007 - 05:19 pm:

jimmyswell EQN L
eqn

Equinox operates a copper mine in Zambia. The price of copper is down at the moment.

This weekend's Fin Rev suggests that EQN might be a take-over target from Oxiana and/or Zinifex in 2008.

If such a public auction occurs, EQN will attract a premium.

If it doesn't, then the copper price might pick up.

So it's kind of an each-way bet.

moleman

Member

Post Number: 305
Registered: 10-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 24, 2007 - 02:55 pm:

moleman KCN L

It all comes down to whether Kingsgate get their Chatree gold mining leases next year which will immediately double production. If they do brokers have this one priced at $6-$9 (using old gold prices), don't and the plant gets put in mothballs. The Thai elections were last night with the winners, the PPP party, pro foreign investment and pro mining. Kingsgate have won numerous awards for the Chatree mine, its 52% Thai owned, the workforce is 99% Thai and it generates decent royalties (which were recently doubled) so hopefully it's just a matter of time... Price has been all over the place as we wait but long term TMF has been positive for the last 9 months which indicates someone's been accumulating a position.

I'm either coming first or last!

cheers

MM (holding)

elisabeth

Member

Post Number: 417
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 26, 2007 - 07:10 pm:

elisabeth BPT L

I’m a shorter term breakout trader – it’s a whole shift in mindset to think 365 days.

F/A: Beach is an oil & gas producer (and explorer) and oil revenues are up significantly – profit doubled in financial year 2007. EPS is forecast to grow – current 2.8, 2008 10.9, 2009 15.6.

T/A: Looking at the weekly chart: a messy inverted head & shoulders, with either 2 heads, or 1 head & 2 R shoulders. Or, a W with an Eve then Adam reversal at the lower points. Whatever the pattern, it looks like it wants to push upwards. (However... SBS has been trying to push upwards from a similar range for 2 years now without success, so Beach may be right here this time next year...)

bptwkly

OBV has diverged since September, swinging up strongly. MMAs also show upward bias - long term are starting to separate.

bptmmawkly

I’ve traded BPT but don’t own currently. Might consider entry after a strong weekly close above 1.55. Target of around $2.50 is based on the rise since the end of 2004. Entry, say, at around 1.60 would give more than 50% return if target were to be reached.

hailoh

Member

Post Number: 250
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, December 29, 2007 - 04:39 pm:

hailoh KLM L

KLM is involved in cable making. It has been re-incarnated from dotcom debris, and if it can develop the cash flow it expects, should show a positive price trend. Whether this will last through the recession is another matter.

KLM Weekly

coyotte

Member

Post Number: 395
Registered: 12-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 09:23 am:

Coyotte TEL L

If 2008 holds the turmoil as expected , then may be prudent to stay with a local div-paying major outside the mining/export areas .

The XTJ could be making a rocky recovery going by the GMMAs and TEL's Long Term GMMAs though still weak , appear to be gaining in strength.

The White line is a "Line Close Price" .

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

peter1

Member

Post Number: 210
Registered: 12-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, December 30, 2007 - 10:18 pm:

peter1 COS L

This was a tough challenge and required much research. My TA skills were used to the max. and I even spent hours looking through the company reports for any information that might add to my edge. The variety was exciting and intoxicating. I went pearl marketing in Myanmar (ATI), oil and uranium exploration in the Kyrgyz Republic (MHL) and even looked at medical waste disposal in Qld (MDV). In the end I stayed with the green theme that is 2008. Effective insulation will lower our energy bills and save the planet. At the end of the year all we want to be is Cool and Cosy (COS).

I like to buy rising stocks with the buyers in control. This is not a daily sprint but a 12 months endurance race so I had to look at charts I knew existed but rarely used. Yes, the monthly charts, nothing less would be good enough. The only confirmation I need is to see the TMF breaching the zero line like a playful whale.

The chart I settled on shows a period of bottoming action and price stopping volume. The recent stock price is rising slowly as this company undergoes its reorganisation. The TMF is looking playful and as long as Japan doesn't get in the way this calf might grow to a whale.

Good luck all, Peter.

cos1

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 862
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 07:21 am:

tryhay CBH L

Have been in CBH on & off since 12c and expect the pipeline of diverse projects to drag its share price into multiple $ over 2008.

CBH is in long term uptrend, is currently at the support level (has been sliding >12 months), has great Fa stuff & IMO the only reason it wont blitz it is it will be taken over in some M&A frenzie.

Yogi what happens it that in fact happens to my pick? am I allowed a substitute? If so PPX is almost the same story but different sector.

Am still having tecckie trouble chart later.....

(Message edited by tryhay on December 31, 2007)

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 864
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 07:55 am:

ditto

CBH chart

cbh

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2489
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 10:00 am:

Hi tryhay,

" ... what happens it that in fact happens to my pick? am I allowed a substitute? If so PPX is almost the same story but different sector."

Sure, we'll give you a substitute, but it will start from
the date the first pick becomes untradable ... :-)

happy new year

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2490
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 10:04 am:

..... last day to get set in this challenge, tipsters !~!

HAPPY NEW YEAR

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2491
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 10:27 am:

paul CVI L

Hi folks,

CVI ... change of countries and direction has done wonders for
this stock and figure it should perform well in 2008 ... :-)

... especially when we see some significant positive cycles
come out to play, in March, June and early-November 2008.

CVI alert ... astrostuff update .....
cviupdate28122007.pdf (40.1 k)

HAPPY NEW YEAR

paul

:-)

=====

gdd3

Member

Post Number: 247
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 11:49 am:

Dolphin, MMX, L

I'll stick with the "flavour of the year(2007)" sector, Iron Ore, and have a stab at MMX as structurally she has been sold down the most of the all the Mid West "potential" producers after its euphoric first six month rise in 2007. I see she is around good support at about $3.00, appears to be in the last phases of a pennant continuation? pattern and at "over-sold" extremes on most momentum indicators(on weekly charts). Who knows where she(or I for that fact) will be come Dec.08....maybe making new highs(we both hope!).

Thanks Yogi for this suggested comp.; pity can't get a few more "to have a go!"

Cheers and all the best for 2008.

Dolphin

sachs8

Member

Post Number: 78
Registered: 03-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 01:32 pm:

sachs8 SAU L

sau

A strengthening gold price and new initiatives should help SAU to break out from the current trading range.

lucky_phil

Member

Post Number: 51
Registered: 06-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 04:08 pm:

lucky_phil, OSH, L

Energy looks to me to be the next sector to undergo consolidation regardless of the state of the US economy next year. There are so many producers, so much demand and low price elasticity that I think it will be where the action is in the second half of 08 at least.

On a TA basis OSH has been relatively well behaved in an uptrend channel since completing a double bottom in April 03. I hope it will continue to be well behaved!

Good luck to all for a prosperous 2008 - onward and upward!
Phil

stickman

Member

Post Number: 1096
Registered: 06-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 06:11 pm:

stickman SBM L

sbm breaking out along with gold?

thanks yogi

a happy new year to all plus the folks behind IC

cheers

Trade to Learn, Not to Earn.

when you lose,don't lose the lesson.

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 2067
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 10:13 pm:

ingot54 BNO L

bno_MONTHLY

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2494
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 3


Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 08:49 am:

Hi folks,

Entries for the Annual IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008:

HAPPY NEW YEAR and a prosperous 2008 to everyone ... :-)

happy trading

paul

:-)

====

gohard

Member

Post Number: 708
Registered: 05-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, January 01, 2008 - 12:11 pm:

gohard AGX L
Paul if this is to late no problems had the notice early enough and forgot till I opened your mail above today.
All good Happy New Year to all IC members G

dug

Member

Post Number: 2770
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 31, 2007 - 02:50 pm:

Speaking to the Negative
4Tryhay- Takeovers don't always go thru so it Should be Allowed that one declares d'Out.
All Rules should provide the OUT
let alone in a Competition such as this.

For example-As the Rules currently stand Hilarius is Dis-Qualified for not providing a Chart.

Ya gotta give a bloke an Out.
right?

I propose that each contestant has the Right
to Get Out of It!
[whatever IT may be]
we judge with righteousness on the If or When.

was this new icon specially picked ?

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

Member

Post Number: 2771
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, January 02, 2008 - 11:22 am:

I hope this contest doesn't "Bog Down" into unreal rules like the weekly comp.
Firstly I don't agree that No One can enter after Dec 31st.I especially think that it should be stated if one in Reality holds their Pick and also declares If/When they sold it before December 2008.
Please don't come back at me about KISS.It isn't a matter of Score Keeping.It just a matter of Learning something worthwhile and the List of shares here is personally interesting to me.For starters over 60% of Entries are currently Under $2.
Do we all agree that the Best Way to define a Long Term Hold is a short term Trade that comes Good? Doesn't hit a Trailing Stop etc?
How about Contestants delve into that Angle on a Monthly even Quarterly Basis?
How about some Sector breakdown and specific chat about say the Gold/Oil Sector?Producer vs Explorer Plays?

Let's not run a Boring Contest that lasts a YEAR only to find some penny or blasted BHP is the Winner.Whoopdedo what'll that learn us?

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 871
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 08:57 am:

I appreciate your going in to bat for me dug, but this is a public website and "they" are providing a competition that I am somewhat interested in and if "they" want to impose rules on us entrants then I'll accept em ~ even if I think they (not allowed to substitute PPX from date of start) are a crock... I understand most places run on expediency, it makes things easier.

IMO It ain't reasonable to expect the guidelines to be retrospectively altered dug, especially as you see not all contestants can be made to 'comply with the rules'(ie not all have provided a chart and attempt to explain in good faith why they chose their pick ~ but I am not complaining ~ just stating fact). I guess some of the reason for this fact is because of the context of the competition (voluntary and open to the registered public)and many (all) of us don't want to look turkeys when our pick turns turtle, so do not provide too much incriminating detail/s....

I guess my point is:
Incrementalism is the name of the game dug, and the ideal IMO would be for ppl to not just tell if they had bought the share, and why, but also if they entered and exited the share over the year (as you say on a monthly/quarterly basis). Having said that only 21 displayed a pick out of how many subscribers? Perhaps your/my ideas have merit, and your first sentence in Post Number: 2771

dug wrote on Wednesday, January 02, 2008 - 12:22 pm:
hope this contest doesn't "Bog Down" into unreal rules like the weekly comp

& so for that reason I think it is just great that an annual comp is held (Thanks yogi & colin) & am prepared to accept "the rules imposed" ~ but perhaps next year if another comp is held then it could be modified to suit a more useful outcome for the pilgrim/s sitting on the sidelines ~ I mean they (the sideline sitters) can do their own pick anyway (and will with their portfolios) without anyone else seeing how their stockpicking skills are improving.

On another point, FWIW if one could not enter in the ~17 days the comp was open then tuff tittie IMO (no offence meant gohard) - but who knows politics is a strange beast

- these emoticons are wild ~ but I don't think I'll use them very often!

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3446
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 09:40 am:

THREE YEAR RESEARCH PROJECT

The entry date has been extended to January 31

Please name 5 stocks you think may double by New Year's Eve 2010

The starting price for stocks selected is December 31 2007

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/1295403.html

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

philr

Member

Post Number: 323
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 11:55 am:

Hilarius

I think you should probably start a new thread if you want to start another competition or research program.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

eric

Member

Post Number: 179
Registered: 09-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 12:04 pm:

Hilarius, forcasting for 2 years does not mean a thing. Money is made in trading, not holding shares for 2 years. What are you trying to achieve there.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

colin_twiggs

Member

Post Number: 3085
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 06:38 am:

Hilarius,
I suggest that you keep the two threads separate. Not everyone is interested in long-term holdings.

Regards,
Colin

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3455
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 07:36 am:

Philr and Colin

Absolutely ... I always thought the choices would be in a separate thread ... the link provided in my message above is the location for the 3 year project

Here it is again ... it was set up in 2007

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/1295403.html

I just thought that people interested in looking a year ahead might be interested to nominate stocks with the FA or TA or FA + TA potential to treble by 2010

Responding to Eric ... merchant banks and superannuation funds constantly look for stocks with the capacity to maximise returns ... trebling in value is not a bad return ... and maybe one can have a life as well

This is not to deny those who derive pleasure from trading the chance to do what they enjoy

Increasingly I don't enjoy trading. I don't smoke either, because many years ago I decided it was injurious to my health. I wish I had stuck to that view about trading too.

Investing, for me, is far healthier, and any extra potential from trading does not compensate, in my view, for the sedentary threat to health

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3456
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 07:45 am:

PS

The selection of long term growth stocks is not necessarily irrelevant to traders

Some of the best trading opportunities will occur in those stocks rising most strongly over the long haul

My own purchases are generally in the same stock ... 50% for a short term profit and 50% for the long haul

If I see a stock which I think has better long term potential I will switch from the slower long haul stock to the one I perceive to be the faster

This converts some long haul stocks to short or medium term trades by reason of the switch

From this you will note I have not yet cured my serious trading addiction / affliction

Eric, in logic one must beware the false dichotomy

Some things are not a matter of EITHER/OR ... they can be BOTH one AND another all at the same time

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

philr

Member

Post Number: 324
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 08:15 am:

Hilarius

You change like the wind. I remember you saying about 6 months ago how long term investing was the go. Then you were convinced short term trading was best now you are back to investing long term again.

As far as your post on here for the long term competition that you are organizing it has nothing to do with this thread as I see it.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

philr

Member

Post Number: 325
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 08:47 am:

Hilarius

I cannot see the logic in blindly holding a stock long term i.e 2 years just because its perceived to be a growth stock.

BOL is a good example a lot of FA people were saying it was going to the moon but despite this its price has more than halved over the last couple of years.

If you had blindly held it as per your long term investing plan then you would currently have lost over half of your capital.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3459
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 09:10 am:

Phil

(1) It is the market which sometimes changes like the wind ... not me

(2) I have consistently bought 50% for quick profit amd 50% for the long haul in rising markets

(3) I will switch from a slower to a faster rising stock, including even the long term 50%

(4) That may convert a long term hold into a short or medium term hold, as another and better and faster takes its place

(5) In a falling or sideways market I may hold cash or only trade short term, letting a profit run if that is what the market wants in a particular case

(6) In all cases selection is the key

(7) O'Neil says the big gains follow big earnings increases, so for me FA is vital along with Weinstein Stage 2 and GMMA

(8) The above is a totally consistent trading plan

The last thing I would do is engage blindly in a long term hold if a stop was activated

Whatever made you think I would do anything blindly?

It is not a competition ... it is a research project

Life is not a competition ... only losers compete against others

Winners only compete against themselves ... Tiger Woods included

There is a clear link between the thinking of people in this thread ... and the thinking of those who want to analyse the potential of a stock to double in 3 years

Just because this thread or another tests selection skills has no bearing on trading plans

FA is the only way to tell whether a stock has long term potential

A trend can fizzle

Any more questions, doubts or worries?

Out of interest what do you think makes a stock rise faster and longer than another?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

dug

Member

Post Number: 2772
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 10:23 am:

Tryhay-
The Big Difference that now affects Long Term Holding is the Removal of Capital Gains Tax from SuperAnnuation Funds DIY.
This has allowed the Retired to pick and choose perceived Tops and not have to take Tax Implications/COSTS into their decisions to Act on Impulse.
I don't have a DIY Super Fund,do you tryhay?

Now it's well known that one shouldn't conduct business with Tax as a chief criteria for Action but the Pilgrims do.It's ingrained,Avoid Tax and afterall it is an Expense of Doing Business so the One Year CGT clause has Great Influence on the General Holder,especially of Blue Chips.

However,this "Class"[Long Term,Bluey predominately,Holders]is now Divided by the Rich,Retired,Superannuants no longer having to play against the Tax Card.
These Old Timers,Holders of the Font of Wisdom due to the years of Market involvement can now sprout Exit Calls,and debate/go one upmanship with impunity against the "Younger" LT Holders who are still constrained by CGT considerations.

In the background of their posts is their holding of this Get out of Tax card,yet they seem to want to imply that they have some cleverness at picking tops and bottoms and insist on "patronising" the Holders who continue to Hold.

Yeah,tryhay,I'm rambling but I'm just exploring the Irony of How these Old Timers were the Champions of Hold Forever,"It's YEARS in the Market that Matters" preachers they were and simply because their circumstances changed re Tax,they are now Advocating Short Term diddling round while collecting Bank Interest.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

eric

Member

Post Number: 180
Registered: 09-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:12 am:

Hilarius, from what I can see of your posts, you talk about trading anyway. You are not holding shares, well most of them anyway, for 2 or 3 years. You are buying and selling and switching all the time. Is that not trading? So how about getting some consistency in your statements.

Trading does not only mean day trading, trading with EOD does not mean you have to sit on the computer all day.

Come on my friend, get some consistency and some permanency in your statements.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 874
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:18 am:

Tax is a consideration for buy and holders dug: years ago (when I was a greenhorn) I bought & held ~ and was lucky enough to have good advice (most times UBS has good advice) on picks to make it pay off.....

These days with the long term portfolio I buy in 2 or 3x ~ $10/15,000 tranches, and if a consolidation phase occurs then sell down the holding but maintain a residual for CGT considerations. In the short term portfolio I do not care about CGT and with the pump & dump world there it suits fine.

No I don't have my own DIY Super dug - I depend on the public circus super and my own investments (not structured as DIY S). IMO you should not knock the grey power DIY super bregaide - in fact good on them ~ even if you know a better way dug (horses for courses - even if they get wiped out with their tax schemes). My aim is to retire at 55 & I guess that will happen, all things being equal....

Perhaps you were rambling but having experience in accounting you have seen it all I'm sure. I still got to respond to your Religious Fanatics slur on FIB dug - but it will keep I'm sure......

On a more +ve not dug why not quit your ranting about how bad things are and post your picks here

tryhay wrote on Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:15 am:
Hello Hilarius

Thanks for kind offer to join this useful endeavour ~ particularly if the starting price for stocks selected is December 31 2007 :

- you don't have to like him (not another one on the forum you can not stand dug?), just post away and provide some details Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Happy trading

philr

Member

Post Number: 326
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:23 am:

"only losers compete against others"

I don't think this statement is very fair are you calling all the participants in this competition losers?

I only enter it for a bit of fun and I think most of the others do too. You have attempted to hijack this thread like you do with others. You made no mention of the purpose of this thread when you posted your initial post above.

To answer your question:

Out of interest what do you think makes a stock rise faster and longer than another?

I don't really care what makes one stock rise faster than another all I do is look at the chart that will tell me everything I need to know about a stock. I don't go much on fundamentals as TA has the fundamentals built into it.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 875
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:28 am:

I notice hilarius copping a pizzling up above here ~ give him a break guys!

You will recognise that things change with the time of day little own on a month to month & if you wont let hilarius change is approach to suit then I could ask what you do??...........

I think someone said lighten up around here - please...

Rather than have a go why not post your pick for all to see Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 3461
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:44 am:

Phil

No I don't think anyone here is a loser

Eric

Good point ... I just need more will power to stay away during the day :-)

Tryhay

Thanks

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

eric

Member

Post Number: 181
Registered: 09-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:57 am:

Tryhay, look at my web site, I am not afraid to post ALL my day trading and long term trades there.

But I agree, we should let Hilarius say what he wants to say.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 876
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 12:08 pm:

Hi Eric,

I have limited time for the priorities in my life and this website is fine for me & I am happy with my trading plan/style. If I make time I'll have a look at it ~ but I can not get over the "wingers" (not necessiarily you phil) who contribute limited amount to this site apart from their opinions (which commonly are -Ve) ......

Particularly when the communication on the site is written & open to misinterpretation at the drop of a hat. Didn't your mum say to you if you havent got anything +ve to say then don't say anything at all?

Back to the real work around here (tidying the house for visiters).

Happy trading...

(Message edited by tryhay on January 04, 2008)

philr

Member

Post Number: 327
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 12:28 pm:

Tryhay

Not really sure why you are referring to me in this post.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 878
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 12:42 pm:

I apologise to you phil, if I have caused offence. My comment (in Post Number: 876) was not directed to you speciffically - but more broardly based.

Happy trading

philr

Member

Post Number: 328
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 01:35 pm:

Tryhay

NP I am pretty thick skinned :-)

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 2069
Registered: 05-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 01:39 pm:

Pathetic!

Some misconstrue others' posts - choosing to generalise where none was intended (a common ruse used in debate to avoid sticking to the topic), forcing the opposite side into defence!

Waste of energy (ie a non-green activity!) And a waste of time.

Part of the reason I don't bother posting much here any more.

Blind Freddie can see that Hilarius was simply fishing for interest in a long-term project. And what better place to advertise for interest, than in a stock-comp-thread.

And although he was the very first in the thread to register his interest in this year-long comp, he waited until all entries were in and the comp closed before mentioning his interest in welcoming members to an even longer project - it was NEVER touted as a "comp".

That would have been the end of it ... but no ... the same old antagonists stick up their heads, and the rest is 100% predictable!

Duh!

In the past he has been criticised for being "Elite" or forming a "closed group" blah blah ... yada yada (by the same old predictable talking heads). So when he does EXACTLY the SAME thing, and goes PUBLICLY ... guess what ... yes ... he gets criticised for THAT too.

Duh ... again!

There are some blatant inconsistencies - but they are not those of Hilarius - they are those of his accusers.

One "doesn't go much on FA because TA has FA built into it". OK ... then why participate in a 12-month comp if one "doesn't go much on fundamentals". Extending that ... what's your problem with 3 years - same principles EXACTLY

I have yet to see a technical Analyst who can get anywhere in the ball park on where a stock is likely to be in one year ... but a goof Fundamental Analyst could give you an excellent assessment of that.

It has again been misconstrued that Hilarius "changes like the wind" and is "inconsistent".

His position has always been crystal clear - he is both a trader and an investor, and chooses to explore LONG TERM analysis as a special interest - which he freely shares here.

I have a list as long as my arm of the members of IC who no longer post here simply because of the primordial tribal pack mentality existing on IC at times. I still keep in touch with a few of them privately - all say the same thing - personal attack, negativity, failure to get behind the idea that was trying to be developed ...

Add your own.

Trouble is - this is NOT our forum - it belongs to people who have invested much to bring it to us - it is a privilege to belong.

I wonder how much encouragement and positivity Hilarius' attackers have extended towards other members over the past 12 months? Possibly could write it down, but you would only require the edge of an aspirin on which to write!

Anything half decent, innovative or novel gets the mockers! One can see the attitude of some posters by their attitudes towards others.

Pah! Just damned head-kickers and getting away with it.

I won't be back here posting while the current situation prevails.

philr

Member

Post Number: 329
Registered: 04-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 02:56 pm:

Ingot54

My main gripe with Hilarius is that he is not following forum rules.

"Stay on topic

Trading and technical analysis are serious subjects. Please keep your posts relevant to the topic and confine any banter to the Back Page."

I have nothing against him running his own long term competition but do not see why he needs to post links to it in other threads: that is just basically spamming the forum.

If that were the case I could go to every thread and just remind people about a thread I was interested in.

I just made a general comment that he changes like the wind which I have observed about his comments over the last year or so.

"One "doesn't go much on FA because TA has FA built into it". OK ... then why participate in a 12-month comp if one "doesn't go much on fundamentals". Extending that ... what's your problem with 3 years - same principles EXACTLY"

I participate because I use TA to make my pick for the competition I cannot see any problem there.

As I said previously I don't have a problem with his 3 year competition or however many eons it is. Its just that he should comply with forum rules and stick it in its own thread he's been around long enough to know that.

His inconstancy also annoys me one moment he is complaining about short term traders the next its long termers.

I am sure he can speak for himself anyhow. As far as I was concerned the matter was finished he replied to my post and that was it but it seems others always want to put their bit in.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

holycow

Member

Post Number: 3655
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 03:05 pm:

Ingot and Phil,

I'd just given a 5-star to both of you coz in certain ways you guys had spoken my mind. I think it is time for "some" of us to take a serious look into the mirror and see how ugly we/they have become...

Cheers.

HC

... one day...!

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 2070
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 03:37 pm:

Philr

Point accepted.

However this is a moderated forum - the "Report Abuse" button alerts the Moderator ... and relieves us from accentuating and escalating the problem - rarely have I seen a problem self-regulate - the egos are just too big.

Look what happened in the Trading the XJO thread:

Instead of taking it to private message between himself and the Moderator, the member chose to continue on well after Colin stepped in. Both personas are looking to have the last word - I say let them if it is constructive - judge that yourself. But I would not enter the door of such a thread ever again. Why would I?

People need to understand that there are many out in this ethosphere who could add so much to our enjoyment of trading and understanding of TA, but they don't and won't bother.

I can tell you that the member from that above thread did not have an agenda - I have shared several PM's and had discussion about the method - there is certainly NO commercial venture mentioned in any of that correspondence. I can not see why one member said: "Read between the lines" - I must be a proper dill to not see it.

These people need to realise that this forum is simply NOT INTERESTED in whether they are justified or not.

The main antagonist in the thread I mentioned in this post, could hardly be happy with the outcome because it was continued publicly - it is against forum etiquette to do this - the Moderator has requested that all such disputes be handle in ways other than what we are seeing.

If members simply reported to the moderator where they have a problem, it would end.

Further, the PM facility is there to take it off-line ... where many gripes have been amicably settled without the angst and pressure which personal discussion in the public domain can bring.

If the PM is abusive, as the member stated, then that too can be handled by the moderator - the facility is there.

If we all could do this ONE simple act in 2008, I am certain the rot would stop, and IC would be a thriving community. As I have said before, I am not squeaky-clean either, but I have tried to move away from the personal and have tried to make the market my main adversary.

To that end I would like to know that I do have the resources and support of the forum behind me, as I put mine behind the forum, so that all of us have opportunity to progress.

Playing the man and not the ball is fruitless and destructive, distasteful to anyone unfortunate enough to have to read it.

dug

Member

Post Number: 2774
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 04, 2008 - 04:18 pm:

Time once in this Forum that a Short Term Trade was defined by even weeks never minutes.
Then there was much more tolerance given to They who didn't want to or couldn't be defined as a Trader.You know,THEY who have a Real Job and were in the Share Market simply to Increase their Net Worth faster than having their money Safe in the Bank.
In my "Expert" Opinion,it was the loss of this Factor that has sent this Forum into offering only the Dull Drum.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

philr

Member

Post Number: 330
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, January 05, 2008 - 10:43 pm:

Ingot54

Some degree of conflict is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed it often brings to the surface issues that have been building for some time. The 'Report abuse' button may be one solution but it in itself does not solve all issues.

I think it is better to say what you are thinking than to always hide behind some cloak of politeness and niceness.

Thank you for drawing my attention to that thread I had not read it but can see how the parties obviously felt strongly about their issues.

I really don't think that most members on this forum are so precious that they cannot read the issues and decide for themselves what is being said.

I agree with you that these disagreements however should not degenerate into straight out abuse with swearing etc. as that is obviously not a good look and should be edited out by the moderators.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2563
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 01, 2008 - 02:51 am:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 31012008,
with only 2 players showing gains, so far ... :-)

have a great weekend

paul

:-)

=====

rederob

Member

Post Number: 2310
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, February 01, 2008 - 04:49 pm:

yogi
I know it would break the rules to accept an entry from me.
However, so that this is not a "hindsight" pick, you can choose the highest price ever achieved by the stock in the past 6 months as my starting point.
And as I would be picking PDN, you will realise that I would immediately be significantly behind (last to be precise) and not at any particular advantage.
My selection should please Charlie, who knows that uranium is falling like a brick.

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2603
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, March 02, 2008 - 10:14 am:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 29022008:

Results 29022008 ...

..... only 3 in positive territory so far, with Dolphin
and Stickman blitzing the field, right now !~!

have a great weekend

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2646
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, April 01, 2008 - 12:48 am:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 31032008:

Results 31032008 ...

Not really what you were hoping for, huh???

..... but, Dolphin, stickman and Holy Cow doing okay,
so far !~!

have a great day

paul

:-)

=====

redrover

Member

Post Number: 795
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, April 07, 2008 - 06:52 pm:

Well, thank goodness it's a yearly comp git

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2685
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 30, 2008 - 11:36 pm:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 30042008:

Results 30042008 ...

Dolphin and Hilarius in the front running, right now ... :-)

... and luckily, we still have two more passes of Jupiter,
to help get CVI off its lows, before years end ... lol ... :-)

have a great day

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2775
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 12:01 pm:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 30062008:

Results 30062008 .....

..... philr is waaaaaay out in front and Hilarius has slipped in the rankings, but lucky_phil
and moleman should be happy with their efforts, at present.

have a great day

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2795
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 01, 2008 - 01:17 am:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 31072008:

Results 31072008 ...

..... more than half way through the year now and still, only four traders with positive returns ..... :-)

have a great August

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2807
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 02:37 pm:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 29082008:

IC Stockpickers' Challenge Results ... 29082008:

have a great day

paul

:-)

=====

elisabeth

Member

Post Number: 441
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 31, 2008 - 03:57 pm:

Here's a little history.....

comp

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2818
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 01, 2008 - 02:15 am:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 30092008:

Results 30092008 .....

happy trading

paul

:-)

=====

redrover

Member

Post Number: 807
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, November 21, 2008 - 12:31 pm:

Geez, I dread to think what our list will look like on 01/12/08 (let alone 31/12/08). As at today none of us are left in the green - all is red.

At the start of 2008 who would have thought that even BHP would lose 50% of its value?

gdd3

Member

Post Number: 382
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 27, 2008 - 05:51 pm:

Hi Redr... Yep, definitely hard to "stomach"; NAB and ANZ just marginally better but RIO a mere 68%; not to mention my entry, MMX...after showing such early promise and leading the pack for 4 months (typical "April Premier" story)before a steady decline and now a huge 85% "cheaper"!

Still, spare a thought for Yogi's CVI now a "whopping" 96%+ "cheaper".

All, you would think, could be "good" choices for next year's comp.....MAYBE fairing atleast a little better???? What's another 96% loss on CVI price of today(1.1c)...0.044c, is that at all possible?

Are well, we have one more month to improve on our %'s be it less of a loss or even higher!

Dolphin

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2842
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 02, 2008 - 05:07 pm:

:-)

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008 ... Results at 28112008:

Results 28112008 .....

With only one month to go, it's not looking good, at all ... !~!

happy days

paul

:-)

=====

yogiinoz

Member

Post Number: 2861
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, January 01, 2009 - 11:52 pm:

Hi folks,

IC Stockpickers' Challenge 2008:

Congratulations to the winner Chriso on SGL, with a 13% gain
and Holycow on ILU, with a 0.87% gain to secure second spot
..... these being the only two entries with positive gains,
in 2008.

..... and the wooden spoon has already been delivered
to me, with a huge 97% loss, on CVI.

Final results 31122008 ..... :-)

IC Forum Comp 2008 ... final results .....

happy days

paul

:-)

=====

tryhay

Member

Post Number: 1250
Registered: 09-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, January 02, 2009 - 04:31 pm:

yogiinoz wrote on Friday, January 02, 2009 - 12:52 am:
with a huge 97% loss, on CVI.

Better you than me Yogi, what an incredible year, than goodness for stop losses and shorting: the only reason I am still standing with the pants I have on (and even they have holes in them).

Am still deciding the pick for this year and will register it before monday am.

Happy trading DYOR