CNM - Carnegie Corporation

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mrlunch

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Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 12:32 pm:

Hi all,

Dug has finally convinced me to start a thread, so here it is - CNM for the long term.

As it happens CNM has set itself up for some great short term moves too (like yesterday 25th March), but I'm not trading those. I currently hold four shares which I intend to hold for years and year unless information changes and CNM is one of them.

My basic investment philosophy for CNM is exceedingly simple - I see a shift to green power as a very long term trend gathering momentum and taking place over decades. The ability to make desalinated water is also a bonus.

Obviously there is a current push towards green energy because of the whole global warming thing. But why would we use dirty fuel if a clean one is available? The world needs clean energy if only for the health of its people and animals. We can't eat fish because coal fired power plants have pumped the oceans full of mercury etc etc.

CNM initially expects their wave power to be competitive with wind power, and competitive with fossil fuels within 10 years. I have to look into the assumptions they've used there.

People are willing to pay more for clean energy than dirty energy, but given the choice at the same cost everyone would choose clean. How much of that pie will belong to CNM?

They are a long way from making money though, but the potential is truly amazing.

Now maybe my utopian view of earth with people driving electric cars running on renewable electricity, breathing clean air while looking at rainbows is an investing handicap, but I think there is a strong argument for things (ever so slowly) heading in that direction. If you ask anyone whether they'd use renewable or fossil power if they were the same price and everyone says they'd use renewable. What if CNM can actually make their power competitive within 10 years? Pretty big numbers. Obviously it begs the question... what if they can't?

To me CNM seems to have the potential to fail, meaning I'll lose most of my investment. However I also see the potential for CNM for be a $5 share after several years.

Anyway this is more of an opener and I'll say more here in the future, but in the mean time I invite you all to say your piece.

Cheers

dug

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Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 02:41 pm:

Welcome to the Wilderness,Mr Lunch,where you get No Idea of What is readable/useful/Pointed to your fellow pilgrims to MaMMon because 'THEY" dare not speak just read in a Void,waiting for the convoluted babble of the Great Ones stating usually the Blessed Obvious[Hullo Sailor] or worse shutting up shop completely because what THEY know is for "Feeding d'Family".

So Mr Lunch as a "New" poster,how about doing by Example.

When at what price did you buy CNM?
Are you Full Up at say 10cents and will never be lured to buy another Parcel regardless of Developments?

This will allow Non Holders to see your Bias [if any] Mr Lunch and will also get you beyond any sniping re being a Dreaded ramper.

I may,might be interested in Buying CNM still even now if I get my required boxes ticked.
Currently I feel there's a Good Chance of a Further Retrace simply based on Carnegie NOT getting the $2mil FEDERAL Grant as well as not being able to crack the WA Gov't Funds being decided on allocation.
I've only read about CNM on chat rooms,Mr Lunch,pretty much.
I seem to remember reading about CNM going into "Battle" for Funding something down the SW corner of WA with Wind/Solar Gunner Bees providing Alternative Energy.

Know/Heard some/any thing about what on earth I'm alluding to?
Denying the Pork Barrel Federal Measly Election Two Million Pledge mightn't hurt too much IF the chances of that Energy Contract are Firming.But it's a 20 horse race I thought?
cheers.

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dug

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Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 01:55 pm:

Here's the link to the article I'm waffling about above.
As you live in WA,Mr Lunch is there any update on progress?
There's talk of several desalination plants coming to SE Qld.They're muttering about Alternate Energy source to power these "energy guzzlers".
Anyhow the link
www.thewest.com.au/default.as...ontentID=53711

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Monday, March 31, 2008 - 10:53 am:

Hi Dug, you'll excuse my slackness in follow up posting here, have been otherwise occupied for the last few days.

Also I can't send email to anyone at bigpond... an issue between yahoo and them. I'm trying to resolve the problem but so far no joy - though bigpond have actually been very helpful.

Now back to CNM - I currently hold less than half of the parcel of CNM I wanted - but I have bought what I have at an average price of around 12 cents, making this by a long way my best investment.

That was actually the reason I found it so easy to watch CNM go from 20 cents to almost 50 cents and back again - I never felt I had my full quota. The price got a few cents away from me when I was intending to stock up back November last year and I decided I wouldn't chase it because this was a decade long investment for me and I could be patient (!).

Now I don't really have the spare investment dollars to plough into it either, but it is still a potentially decade long investment for me so I would be a buyer still given the cash for it and the right TA setup to add more (such as the 25th of March or arguably even today having overcome that resistance at 32 cents - though some sort of retracement now is clearly very possible).

So now they are shortlisted of the Southern Seawater Desalination Plant (SSDP) which explains their recent charge up. What is especially encouraging to me from a TA basis is passing through the 32 cent mark which has proven to be a fierce obstacle in the past. It hasn't closed above it yet, but consolidation above 32 cents would be nice for me to see.

I'll see what the WA paper has to say about it all - however our newspaper out this way rarely has much goodness in it relative to other papers (though I guess Binningup, the location of the SSDP, is much more a WA thing than anywhere else so we'll see...)

dug

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Monday, March 31, 2008 - 11:26 am:

Are you researching into the Facts about CNM,though Mr Lunch?
I've briefly blinked at some of it's announcements and it's corporate set up and have found some "controversial" points.
You'll have to check these yourself.My blinks can be wrong/a misinterpretation but
a]I don't like the Several Inventions being developed by some Chairman "Boffin".They're all too "convenient" like a stab at Wind Power,an angle on Clean Coal along with this Wave Machine Gizmo.Too much of a Grab Bag in Green,I reckon.Too much Company being run for personal Ambition by this Boffin.

b]Did CNM get rid of the African Mineral Sands Tenement yet?

c]I particularly got a bad waft on d'draft when I saw CNM had sole,exclusivity Only in the Southern Hemisphere for these Wave Machines.
Are they developing testing this Gizmo so that the Northern Hemisphere [a much more lucrative market]can be sold into by this Inventor Bloke Individually?
If so?well point [a] above swings in Heavy.

I read recently that a lot of IPO's based on Green/Alternative Issues are out there ready to float.A comment was made that a lot of these IPO's are "opportunistic",one could say "rip offs".
There's several already listed shares in this "shadow" world,Mr Lunch.Running on Green Sentiment with little liklihood of Success.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Monday, March 31, 2008 - 12:38 pm:

Hi Dug,

a] Yes I see your point. CNM basically have four technologies - all commercially unproven. They are 1) Wave Power (CETO); 2) Clean Coal; 3)Wind (more efficient aerofoil) and 4) Solar (store heat to be drawn for base load power.

3 and 4 were acquired recently from the "boffin" for nothing upfront, CNM will develop the technologies and pay the "boffin" a 2% royalty on revenue (note on revenue not profit!). They are both a long way from being commercial.

This boffin - Alan Burns - founded Hardman Resources. The company was quite a successful oil producer, moving from a share price in the cents to around $2.50. The reason this is important is that through his oil engineers CNM knows how to deal with materials in the ocean (I think he said somewhere the only industry that knows more about materials in the ocean than the oil industry is the shipping industry).

He also said somewhere that it is inevitable that one day essentially all of earth's power will be from renewable sources and not fossil fuels. I agree with that statement, and the real question to me is the timeline on which it will occur.

b] They still own 45% I think it is of Carnegie Minerals - the mineral sands company. I believe they will be a natural seller given the chance. I don't see that ownership as material to anything, more of a pile of cash when they sell it (not sure what size pile they'll get for it though).

c] Yes CNM only has rights to operate in the Southern Hemisphere. A European company, EDF Energie Nouvelle which is a subsidiary of EDF (the world's second largest power generation company) will be operating it in the northen hemisphere. REH (Renewable Energy Holdings) owns the technology ultimately. So the second largest power producer in the world wants in on the action. I see that as a vote of confidence.

REH will participate 10% in southern hemisphere wave farms, while CNM will be 90% (up to 97.5% depending on how much they spend on development).

It looks like REH will be a 25 - 49% participant in northern hemisphere wave farms, so presumably CNM gets a better long term deal because they are funding the development and taking on the greatest risk.

But yes - the north will be more lucrative in total, however even just Australia has plenty of scope but add to that New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, a bit of Indonesia and a couple of sites in Africa.

They sell more TV's in the north than they do here, but HVN and JBH still do a lot of business.

As for the whole green sentiment thing - I'd have to agree with you there. There are already plenty of companies that have listed and have fallen 50% or more after people realised there was no money in them. Obviously CNM, like other companies, is benefiting from green sentiment. That sentiment will be stronger still for whoever is left standing and making money.

Will CNM be one of those? Their technology works on a small scale. Wind power is making money and CNM believe initially they will be competitive with wind and get cheaper along the way. There are plenty of risks, but I feel the potential for reward is greater.

Why can't wave power provide 25% or more of out total electricity demand? Assuming the large scale works it is just a matter of investment in the infrastructure.

On a separate note, I actually think electricity demand will rise by a lot more than people think over the coming decades because people will be using it more and more for transport. In 30 years time the world should be running electric cars everywhere running on renewable electricity.

dug

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Monday, March 31, 2008 - 02:04 pm:

All very interesting,Mr Lunch.You've saved me a lot of time staring [not blinking] at CNM angles.
The expertise in ocean going Materials from Oil is Tricky.According to Wikipedia corrosion effects and the need for expensive components is a major stumbling block to economical Wave Power.

Your bit about EDF New Energy being a SUBSIDIARY of the world's second largest Energy Producer reads well but is it a bit "smokey"?
Like is this company INVESTING in the Technology or is it just holding a kind of Option on sucessful development? Getting some kind of kudos for saying it'll Do It but only when someone else Proves/Commercially Develops NOT using their money?
Do you follow,Mr Lunch?

This 4% Holding by REH in Carnegie.Is that Mr Burn's vehicle,shareholding?
Where did that money in the Bank come from? EDF? REH? or where?

mrlunch wrote on Monday, March 31, 2008 - 01:38 pm:
There are already plenty of companies that have listed and have fallen 50% or more after people realised there was no money in them.

You're not slagging my excellent picks of DYE and CFU here,isya Mr Lunch?

These two have Substantial Important Holders.They are on the Brink of Cash Flow Positive[DYE] or Major Orders [CFU].
They simply aren't spived and spinned amongst bleeding Sand Gropers,OK Mr Lunch!!

I find that the Green Companies who are for going down d'Tube are They who can only develop by relying on Aust Govt Subsidy/Grants and/or have Greenie Political Issues contra to their Objectives.
Ethanol/Bio Fuels is the Great Example but,Mr Lunch,DeSalination also has some Kicker about Excess Salt Return so ya CETO better not be for setting up near Fishery Areas.CNM better be able to get Private Funding for this Wave Farm douver,preferably NOT desalinating with it's proposed Energy.
Yeah,I see that the $10mil short list Grant is for only Energy generation but if it rains again in a Monsoon in Qld later this year All the Proposed Desal Plants around here will be CHOPPED!No Carnegie Go here,mate!

Anyhow,I'm only joking,pulling ya leg,don't be insulted,start pushin' d'Abuse Button.
cheers,
jr

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

tryhay

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Monday, March 31, 2008 - 03:01 pm:

Goodness me where did this one get the herbs from ?

I had noticed you guys rabbitting on about CNM but had not looked closely at it til today ~ I got a feeling it will have a breather round here, and will be worth hopping onto if it decides to behave from here

Daily chart:

cnm

Happy trading DYOR

mrlunch

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Monday, March 31, 2008 - 03:41 pm:

Hi Tryhay.

Well I'd say CNM has just ran out of herbs - which is fair enough having rallied 43% in 5 days. Interestingly it didn't quite manage to close above or even at 32 cents, a level I consider significant.

However this time around the selling pressure near 32 seems less intense than previously, so hopefully it can consolidate around these levels...

Anyway this appeared in the West Australia today:

*********************************************
Title: Water Corp shortlists wind and waves

Groundbreaking wave and biomass technology is being considered to help power WA's second desalination plan near Binningup, north of Bunbury.

The Water Corporation yesterday shortlisted 11 proponents seeking to provide up to 200 megawatt hours of energy, enough to run the 45GL, $1 billion desalination plant due to produce drinking water by the end of 2011.

Eighteen proponents lodged expressions of interest in providing 160 magawatt hours from proved renewable energy technology or 40 megawatt hours from unproved technology. The seven shortlisted for the proved technology proposed wind farms or biomass plants burning waste wood. The unproved technology four proposed wave power or biomass projects.

*********************************************

I'll respond to you other queries later dug, though so far you're yet to offend me so you'll have to try harder

dug

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 10:22 am:

See you're back from a break,Mr Lunch so when you can get round to it,would you comment on the following?

Is this fancy,French Global No2 Power Company actually putting any money at all into the Northern Hemisphere side of things?

What did CNM get out of floating the AIM listed entity Renewable Energy[whatever]?Was that the source of the $10 milish in the Bank?

Now,I think WA is pretty xenophobic in the sense that there's a lot of local money willing to back local enterprises.This "inventor" bloke,ex Hardman,is he a sorta colourful identity around Perth?He sure seems to qualify for wearing white shoes.Mouths the right "key" words in these regular announcements.

Like yesterday's,really so what some City Councils are looking at releasing under the sea land for CNM/Ceto Tech wave farms to "footprint" all over the sea bed!!
Geezus,Mr Lunch they could be put in bleeding South Australia!! so what?

When they [CNM] say it's Commercial do they mean they have to hunt up Finance/Bulk Buck$ or are they relying on the public purse to come flooding them with the wherewithal?

I smell SPIV,Mr Lunch.A GunnerDo as long as the Money comes from AnyWhere else.
Like if this was Qld Based,CNM would be wanting to get seaside land allocated to them so they could finance by selling off beach side Appartments overlooking their Wave Machine!!
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

gdd3

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 11:49 am:

Hi Dug and Mr Lunch...maybe this a bit of an intrusion on this Long-Term ASX thread but if you allow me to post the following chart that seems to suggest atleast(technically) in the Short-Term the bias is for further upside from here.

It gave a T.A.Z. set-up(see Short-Term ASX forum for explanation) and confirmation two days ago at 28c(blue line) which seems to suggest at the very least we should re-visit 32c+ and who knows if we can get through there the momentum that has been building up over the past 4 months it could really take off, granted with increased interest?

Cheers

Dolphin

dug

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 12:55 pm:

No need to apologise for posting,dolphin.What's more you're welcome and also get a reply to your post.
Do you buy every TAZ set-up you come across?or do you do some more Culling/reducing of your list?
CNM for example is the shape it is because of Anticipation of some Contract being decided sometime soon.I think there's links in the above previous posts to this FActor.

So IF this short listed Play happens? then 32 will most certainly be Breeched.
Do you follow? By getting a Handle on the Scenario,one gets some criteria for entry/initial buying of CNM yea or nay.One isn't just stuck with a plausible chart pattern but also have some reasonable proposition ie Are CNM going to win this Contract?

It's not Fundamental Analysis d'sweet FA so you aren't defying d'Crew,gdd3,it's just getting some background on what the bleeding hell ya putting ya money down on especially if you're not buying a Dozen Shares a Go.

Firming up ya chances.Raising ya hit rate above doing d'Glory boy.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

gdd3

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 03:00 pm:

Dug...thanks for the reply(not that I was asking for it). Not too sure if I understand all what you have said(last two paragraphs not clear to me) but will respond/answer some of the things you have raised.

Firstly, no I don't "...buy every T.A.Z. set-up I come across"; my trading account, and plan, wouldn't allow it...so obviously there is a bit of "culling/reducing of a list" as you put it.

Hence, secondly, I'm not in CNM, mostly because I would like to see some more "action" +ves(say in Market Depth and vols. traded) than is present and also if I was only thinking of another move back to 32+ then from entry(at 28c) that would fail to meet my personal T.A.Z. objective of 15-20%(as I've outlined in the beginning of the T.A.Z. thead)....hence this one(for me) is placed on watch. MAK and BRM are my only open T.A.Z positions at the moment.

I agree with your justification of the fundamental reasons why this stock has "risen?" in recent times but I do not try to fully understand the FA preferring to leave that to others AND by letting the price action on the stock(CHART) give me the clues/queues to how the recent, or prospective, news is perceived. Yep, I keep it quite simple as I've yet to come across a better way(for me) than the chart/picture of what a stock is doing or about to do. And, yes like most traders/FA's and TA's, I get it wrong sometimes.

As I've explained above, because of the high volatility over the last 6 months or so, my present trading style(mostly via T.A.Z set-ups) is mainly concentrated on Short-Term moves...aiming for the minimum 15-20% moves(hence my apology for the intrusion on this thread). So if CNM wins that contract or not doesn't concern me personally; I'll let the price action(chart) give me the signals of whether to act or not.

Cheers
Dolphin

mrlunch

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 03:37 pm:

Hi guys,

I intend to respond (but first read!) here, and I have some more to add - however I'm moving house at the moment amongst other things... hopefully can sort that our early next week...

Cheers

dug

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 03:43 pm:

there's a MAK thread here also in Long Term,dolphin so if you kick up some points on there?we can go into it.
If you had activated on the CNM TAZ setup you would now be 15/20% upish,right?
Mr Lunch holds this from 12 cents.He's taking it as a Long Term Years Hold.When he eventually gets back from his lunch break,I'm going to quiz him on Why he doesn't Trade Up a bigger stake in it,save his Capital and do some bleeding Work!!but Mr Lunch seems to prefer often "being out to Lunch" and shuns work!!
Anyway,if I can get him onto this subject we[U&I gdd3]well may learn something from this "slacker".

He's much more coherent let alone more polite than yours truly so maybe he can extract from you Gdd3 what "worries" you about Volume and Depth CNM better than me.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

gdd3

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Friday, April 18, 2008 - 04:10 pm:

Dug....not quite 15-20% yet! If you read my post above I said, and pointed out on the chart, that the T.A.Z. entry price was 28c. Its currently only 29c...a 3.5% rise; bit short of the 32.5c -33.5c my maths needs to show a potential 15-20% increase.

Have a great weekend...time to turn off my computer.

Dolphin

dug

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Tuesday, May 13, 2008 - 02:02 pm:

You back from Holidays/Setting up ya penthouse suite yet Mr Lunch?
What do you make of this recent placement?
I thought CNM had Bulk Buck$ already on Hand.Certainly not requiring some Cash Injection just now? Is it coincidence that it was for $2.5 mil [wasn't it?I think that's right but I didn't write it down]
Anyway if it is 2.5 then that's exactly the amount the Liberals Pork Barrelled to our Carnegie subject to Swanny Approval that is.
Could it be CNM knows it ain't got a Poop Show in Hell of getting this Grant?It'll be denied in tonight's budget?

I don't see Management is justified in raising more money in the present when they don't really have to.There's Money In The Bank Now.More than their Current Cash Burn for a Year or more,Why dilute placement it out Now?Satify any Demand by the Sophistos?

I got the same problem happening in CFU but resillent 1 has buzzed off in some huff and can't/won't discuss it with me

So Mr Lunch,you're a Daily Bread Devotee,what do you reckon?
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Tuesday, May 13, 2008 - 02:49 pm:

Hi Dug, and all.

My life has been so busy the last month I've really struggled for the time. Plenty to write here but there have been too many other more pressing projects.

Really Dug I think it just shows there is support for the project (i.e. money) if they want it. Maybe they'd be better off waiting until later when the share price was higher but you don't want to be in a position where you have to raise money. People can smell that fear too.

Realistically CNM will be burning cash for years. It will be a long time before they're charging for the amount of electricity needed to turn a profit.

The real issue is can it be profitable. If the answer to that question is yes, then CNM has massive potential.

I hear what you're saying about liking companies that are making money and can use that for making more... and ideally that is nice. But these start ups haven't a hope of that - that is where the massive potential comes from, being balanced by massive risk and the possibility of falling over.

Getting back to "can they make electricity and sell it competitively"... I think the answer is yes, and so the money will be forthcoming from the people to get a piece of the pie...

Having the expensive equipment on shore and having what is offshore under the surface solves most of the problems with other wave power. Now it is just scale needed I think

mrlunch

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Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 04:59 pm:

CNM has now traced out a descending triangle over the last couple of months. It is not yet confirmed so at this stage it remains just hanging onto support at 25.5 ish.

Today's move was fairly bearish I thought, and if CNM completes the triangle the target would be around 20 cents somewhere.

In actual fact CNM is respecting resistance associated with its 47 cent peak on 2nd Jan 08.

If I were trading this stock I'd be waiting for a clear breakout which could be quite rewarding. Currently I wouldn't buy it.

Will my "big picture" approach be costly? I'll answer that question in a few years.

For now their projects continue, money is spent and the share price slowly declines. It will take a positive fundamental outcome to take out the strong selling that will exist up to 30 - 32 cents.

mrlunch

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 02:25 pm:

The equation has changed. With heavy volume and little movement on the 19th, and a rather bullish move on the 21st the (short term) descending triangle looked aborted.

Today the 22nd the downtrend associated with the January peak has been tentatively broken. It remains to be seen if 30 or 32 cents can be overcome but this downtrend break in and of itself is a bullish development suggesting at the very least sideways movement (or better) is much more likely.

tryhay

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Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 08:42 pm:

mrlunch wrote on Thursday, May 22, 2008 - 02:25 pm:
The equation has changed..........

Yes mrlunch, CNM came up on a scan tonight and I agree the chart is looking bullish: select indicators looking +ve, respect of support, and my guess 32c soon to be revisited if it cares to behave.

FWIW Quite a few ASX Company Announcements in the last ~ week:
http://asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=&asxCode=cnm
* 22/05/2008 Appendix
* 22/05/2008 Change in substantial holding
* 21/05/2008 Issue of 10 million shares
* 21/05/2008 Appendix 3B
* 21/05/2008 $2.5m Placement Fully Subscribed
* 14/05/2008 Federal Budget Media Release
* 13/05/2008 CETO Awarded `Project of the Year 2007
* 12/05/2008 Funding Update

Nothing price sensitive but can not hurt the FA types

Daily chart: Looks to have backtested the downtrend shown (FWIW & the support) & it looks to be heading higher...

cnm

looking to buy in tomorrow morn (particularly as fridays are often times ASX down days)

Happy trading DYOR

dug

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 02:37 pm:

Who got the 10 million shares at 25 cents?
Has this satisfied "True Believers" in this Experimental,Still in Research Stage,Holders?
Has this 10mil dulled,dented Demand and provided a New Source of Supply to Sell if CNM does 30 cents again?

You still haven't told me,Mr Lunch WHAT that Fancy French 2nd Global Power Company gave into the "Pot".Did any money at all transact?or did they [d'frogs] just let their name be used as an Endorsement?

If you were DEEP Green Mr Lunch and U2 Tryhay,you'd spit at d'Bleeding French and go NON Impressed!!
Remember the Rainbow Warrior!!?!!
cheers,

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

tryhay

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 03:33 pm:

There is no doubt about you dug ~ I have french ancestory: a great relation worked on the failed panama canal project .... But that don't mean I support the Rainbow Warrior stuff. One can not pick one's family but the saving grace dug is one can pick one's friends!

More to the point the chart still looks +ve (even on a down day) ~ a bit more volume would not go astray though.

Happy trading DYOR

azworkinit

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Friday, May 23, 2008 - 07:53 pm:

Just aside from the point Dug, I am sensing a bit of green in yourself. No Uranium stocks, Rainbow Warrior, Are there many tree's to hug in Bundy?. It would be surprising,though refreshing, to see a man of principal as yourself in this money grubbing type of business!.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

mrlunch

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Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 01:05 pm:

Dug - excuse the late reply.

The 10 million issued shares - 2 million went to Lindsay and Valerie Baskerville who now own 7% of the company. They were buying consistently up to the placement too it seems. I don't know much else about them. I don't know where the rest went.

"The fancy french pot" didn't give much for the northern hemisphere rights I don't think. Basically they will build any sites and give royalties to Renewable Energy Holdings. I can't remember the exact % but it was significantly higher than CNM had to give (though CNM now do not have to give anything after a more recent deal). CNM were going to be paying 2%, I think the french mob 10%, can't remember exactly.

As for the chart, technically CNM is still in an uptrend as every low it has made has been higher. That said its highs are also lower. The downtrend associated with the high at the end of March is still in force creating a slow downtrend. That has accelerated recently which is a bit of a worry especially as yesterdays low was made on high-ish volume when compared to the last month or so.

I don't see why the slow erosion will stop without some sort of bullish news announcement. CNM, like many smaller companies, have been rather quiet over the last couple of months...

dug

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Friday, June 27, 2008 - 11:22 am:

That's one of the problems with Placements,Mr Lunch.It can satisfy/deflate Demand like of ya Baskerville's.Google them up,Lunch and read their Heritage.They're probably Social Contacts of the MD ex-Hardman fella.

Of course,Placements put the Money into the Company direct instead of it being squandered/put about in ShareHolders on the Secondary Market ie ASX.Still I thought CNM had sufficient Cash without needing another $2.5mil right now.Still think that Fed Grant is kaput not going to happen.

I'd be real disheartened that the French Mob were No Cash Down just Window Dressing this Company.Baskerville's are French Nobility so maybe that's how it happened?
I dislike Companies with Cross Holdings in others unless they're 100%.Shuffles can go on.Public Company can be swung to Private Company Gain.
In fact,even a Listed "other" Company can be used to get around Rules/Laws re Director Interests.EG A Director of One Company can move around his interests in the Subsidiary IF he's NOT a director of the Sub.
Oh there may be some fine print negating that but when the Company is listed outside the ASX jurisdiction like on AIM?
well,anything is possible.

Anyway,what happened to that SE corner WA "Go" where CNM was competing to Supply?
What happened to the string of wave farms across the South of Australia?
It's still ALL Mostly for Desalination isn't it,Mr Lunch?Wonder if DeSal is still HOT let alone really Viable?

Got any thoughts on what will trigger you to Buy more CNM?News,Chart Action,whatever?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Friday, June 27, 2008 - 12:14 pm:

Hi Dug,

Yeah I get your point about potential double shuffling. But there aren't many companies that don't have holdings here and there. Maybe someone will pull a swifty on us CNM holders. That can be said about a lot of companies though. I doubt you'll find many ASX200 stocks without fingers in pies around the globe and vice versa. I guess it is a risk I am willing to take. That swifty might be an attempted buyout to make the company private - short term windfall anyway.

Yeah who knows with desalination, you hear so many opposing views. My investment is not based on that at all. I see energy. Clean and renewable energy. Desalinated water is essentially energy use with a bit of extra infrastructure.

One thing I haven't heard any argument against is that the world will be consuming a lot more energy in the future. That affects energy prices globally - coal isn't as cheap as it used to be.

The only thing that might lower energy use is increased efficiency, but according to Jevron's paradox as things become more efficient that actually get used more. We'll see if that holds.

The big picture has to be for increased energy prices if they come from traditional (fossil) means. This wave power is not going to get much more expensive (in fact cheaper with time due to mass production of units). Cost of electricity will continue to rise. Each rise makes those with a fixed cost base more attractive.

The market will re-rate CNM if it gets a contract to provide some power to the desalination plant. If not we'll continue with this slow erosion.

What happens in 10 years if electricity prices are two or three times what they are now? Wave power at this fairly fixed cost looks pretty attractive then. So does geothermal, wind, solar etc. They all depend on infrastructure and are getting cheaper with time due to advancement of the technology and mass production. Traditional means are getting more expensive due to demand.

Of course there is the risk that it all turns out to be a bubble and oil will be at $20 again. Well in that case I might have to wait 50 years for the scenario to play out.

But if the current course continues I think I can get 10 times my money from CNM in 10 years. The question is whether I can stand CNM being at 10 cents after almost being 50 cents in the interim.

So what would encourage me to buy more? Firstly I'd need to have the spare cash. Secondly CNM would have to break out of its downtrend. With those two ingredients I am in. I have neither currently.

mrlunch

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 12:45 pm:

The slow erosion continues. Will the 15 cent level finally encourage buyers? Or will my pervious statement about CNM trading back at 10 cents be more accurate?

I continue to sit and wait, in a truly long term experiment. It wasn't long ago that I didn't have what it took to hold something this long. I wonder if my new found ability is to my detriment only?

I still view CNM as having the potential to go to zero or make many times my investment.

dug

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 02:21 pm:

As I see it,the prob with Carnegie Corp lies in it's technology being involved in d'Grid.
The Electricity Grid,Mr Lunch is High Powered,Top Notch.Lotta Money in Power and Tide Machines just don't make d'CUT.

See CMG relies on Gov't Subsidy Support and the General Raising of Power Prices so it's Wave Machine can get a look in,economically speaking.
Power Price Rises for All of Us,Mr Lunch.

Anyway,it's a Pity you picked such an Over Rated Dog as CNM for your Long Term Hold.
Could I suggest looking into Coal Technology could be a better Go?
LNC,CNX,CXY with probably BLK to join in.
Yeah,Yeah I know CMG has some patented snake oil gizmo running in Clean Coal Technology.That's another reason to "withdraw" from it.
Carnegie is all over the Shop with what it's developing.

ya're still 80% up CNM Mr Lunch.
Why not Launch a Lurch to another Ding?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

resillent1

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 03:16 pm:

mrlunch wrote on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 12:45 pm:
I still view CNM as having the potential to go to zero or make many times my investment

And there in lies the key for success to any investing/trading no matter what approach or time frame.

You don't even have to be right that often if the size of your potential reward considerably outweighs the size of the potential risk. (but yo do have to position size correctly to stay in the game until you have succeeded.)

ps.

I'm with dug in relation to CNM's prospects though I don't know that much about them either - just a fairly superficial look. But it's not my judgement you have to back, which is probably lucky for you.

Cheers

mrlunch

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 03:48 pm:

They could be very wise words dug.

Further to Resillent's posting, should CNM go to zero it would hurt me but certainly would not put me out of the game.

I have always wanted a few "bottom drawer" type shares I could come back and check in five or ten years to find one of them off the charts. This exact bias may be working against me here.

Even if my big picture view is exactly right, it doesn't mean CNM will be a raging success.

I have considered selling out, but I'd already considered CNM falling as low as 10 cents and holding through that. I'd like to stick to that plan.

When the time comes for me to add more funds, I'll check out these others you have suggested dug...

Really I am investing in a big picture view I hold that renewable energy is the only place we can end up. I am entirely unsure of the timetable (5 years? 50 years? more?). I will look seriously at spreading this idea across more investments than I currently do...

tryhay

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Monday, August 18, 2008 - 10:55 pm:

FWIW I still hold a small position but sold most when the 200 D_MA was taken out. If 15.5c dont hold then 2,500 shares will be stored away in the bottom drawer (plenty of room in there) till it comes up on a scan....

Chart: Like most charts these days the price action is below the 200 & a declining 50 D _MA

Happy trading DYOR

mrlunch

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Tuesday, August 19, 2008 - 12:34 am:

Ah yes the good old bottom drawer.

Hopefully our holdings don't end up there, but I have a feeling they might be there for at least a while.

The good thing about the market is that your feelings are wrong about 50% of the time.

dug

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 11:48 am:

mrlunch wrote on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 03:48 pm:
Really I am investing in a big picture view I hold that renewable energy is the only place we can end up.

very laudable BUT why CNM?What did your research expose to put CNM on d'Buy'n'Hold?

Isn't wave energy predominately touted to do Desalination?Desal takes a lot of Energy to produce what has to be a Cheap[ish] End Product [potable water]so it was devised to Wave Energy that bit instead of Fossil Fuel Burn.
Desalination gets "shelved" thru the Rain coming back and so does Wave Energy?
The We're going to die of Thirst Panic passes so so does Wave Power?

Like CNM is not proposing to be a source energy for Aluminium Smelting,is it?
Is the wave power angle applicable to any desert regions needing desal in the Southern Hemisphere?[CNM is only applicable to Southern Hemisphere.Some French BigBoy with No Monetary Input has the Northern Hemisphere application]

Anyway,just trying to find if any "inside" knowledge has put you in CNM,Mr Lunch.Something I haven't pondered or contradicts my own views CNM.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 12:48 pm:

Hi dig,

In that same post of mine I also say

mrlunch wrote on Monday, August 18, 2008 - 03:48 pm:
Even if my big picture view is exactly right, it doesn't mean CNM will be a raging success.

I was initially attracted to CNM because of the massive volume spike and price rise. After scoping it out I liked the idea and it was turning a profit. Somewhere along the way I got all long term.

I personally do not see the different between energy used for aluminium smelting, desalination or powering your light globe. It is all power, and there is a total net demand for it and it has to come from somewhere.

I think CNM's generation method lends itself to create desalinated water with little change to the infrastructure needed to generate electricity. I think this is why they bring it up, but to me that is more marketing.

The water thing to me isn't CNM's big picture. Is is power. Their power can be used for anything, it just happens that the water corp's proposed SW WA desal plant had a mandate to use some renewable energy and CNM is short listed. If they win that it means security and probably some funding. But if they don't they'll have to go ahead and make some electricity and put it in the grid and get paid the old fashioned way as such.

So the "we're all gonna die of thirst" may come and go and when it is here CNM might get a share price boost from it but I think mainly because CNM markets their water creating ability. It is a nice bonus but not the main thing in my opinion.

I have no juicy inside knowledge. I actually think this is one party that I am probably too early too. This renewable energy thing might unfold a bit like the internet - overestimated in money making ability in the short term and underestimated in the long term.

CNM predicts they can have electricity competitive with fossil fuel in ten years. IF that happens CNM will have an absolutely enormous market. One problem is there is all sorts of potential competition (other renewables) that could "blow them out of the water". The other problem is "staying afloat" while they get to fossil fuel competitiveness.

dug

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 01:45 pm:

mrlunch wrote on Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 12:48 pm:
I personally do not see the different between energy used for aluminium smelting, desalination or powering your light globe. It is all power, and there is a total net demand for it and it has to come from somewhere.

The "Difference" is that with Alternative Energy "Contraptions",there is a New Accounting of Carbon FootPrint.
How much conventional "dirty" energy is required to be expended to get the New up and running?
This method/approach is what wiped out Ethanol,leaving it [ethanol] in the grip of the Subsidy Grabbing Agrarian Socialists ie the National Party aka LNP in Qld.

It's also why the proposed Desal Plant is asking for a percentage of Alternative Energy to run it.
Lot,Too Much Electricity is required by desalination.
Desal is probably on a par with Aluminium in it's Energy Requirements.
You know that the "slang" name for Aluminium is "Solidified Energy"?
It[aluminium] can ONLY be made if there is abundant,reliable,cheap Bulk Power.In the future world that will probably only be Hydro generated,unless that is,THEY can crack Clean Coal.

Anyway,you're young Mr Lunch.You'll probably see and profit from following the Alternative Energy Sector.
Me?I'll probably be locked up in a Home for the Deranged or in d'Grave when it's all up'n'running.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 03:14 pm:

PS - I wasn't having a dig at you Dug, that was just a typo!

mrlunch

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Thursday, August 21, 2008 - 01:04 am:

Ah yes good point Dug the "pollution factor" of different energy sources does make them a bit different. Really that means "dirtier" energy will be more expensive.

In fact I dare say whatever cost is applied to "dirty" energy will be a massively important point for all these clean technologies.

So is it just the fact I like renewable technologies that makes you think I'm young Dug? Because we'll need that much time to get them going?

mrlunch

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Saturday, September 20, 2008 - 01:30 pm:

Hi all,

Despite my public outcry on the daily bread that public outcry is bad for investing, I'll still publicly cry out occasionally for this one.

The weekly candle on CNM looks like the opposite of that which marked its top back in December '07. However the volume now is not that great while back then it was very impressive.

I also noticed a large crossed trade of over a million shares this week. Someone wants in (and out) however these types of trades seem to appear nears tops and bottoms more than middle.

So while these crumbs of comfort provide for some hopeful musings the main game is the downtrend which has yet to be broken...

The steeper downtrend from the acceleration in the fall is right at current prices around 14 cents and a break of that is a start, but the main downtrend is around 19 cents - still 35% above its last close.

dug

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Thursday, October 02, 2008 - 11:23 am:

Any bells start to ring when CNM sold out of the Nth Hemisphere "Franchise",Mr Lunch?
Couldn't/Wouldn't that fancy French "Partner" stump up any research capital?Are they just an on paper,headline,window dressing partner?
My Broker wouldn't allow that "News" about the glorious,potential of Wave Power to be opened.Messaged that the File was broke or something.What was that all about?

Damned Wind Power seems to be the most backed at present but haven't Carnegie got some "in house" invention angle running on Wind,too?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mrlunch

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Thursday, October 02, 2008 - 11:56 am:

Gday dug.

The report just says a whole heap of power can be generated from Australian waves. Nothing new to me but it looks like it has generated a bit of interest amongst buyers.

So what bells are you thinking would be ringing from CNM selling their holding in Renewable Energy Holdings (REH)? To me it just seems like a source of money. They probably see themselves as having more potential than REH as well as REH is more diversified. CNM has a lot of leverage to their ideas, and the associated risk that comes with said leverage.

The French Partner isn't paying for any research. They just have an agreement to build the sites and pay royalties to REH.

CNM is responsible for all the technology development. Seems like a good deal for the French mob - nothing down. But it was also a good deal for REH - risk free royalties to be paid forever.

As it stands CNM can operate the wave farms in the southern hemisphere but they have to develop the technology.

It's all a bit pie in the sky today but a few years from now wave farms could start springing up everywhere - just like wind farms have done. I'm prepared to wait. It is still coal that essentially powers the world. In the long term electricity demand will only rise. Coal will become more expensive, especially clean coal. That makes alternatives more attractive. Now is my waiting game 1 year, 10 years or 100?

And yeah they have a couple of other technologies. Supposedly better blades for wind, some solar technology and some clean coal technology.

They're all much less of a deal than the wave stuff, though the coal technology could potentially have a big impact and sooner than the others. I'm not holding my breath though.