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     mrlunch
Member
Username: mrlunch
Post Number: 294
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 12:32 pm: |  
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Hi all,
Dug has finally convinced me to start a thread, so here it is - CNM for the long term.
As it happens CNM has set itself up for some great short term moves too (like yesterday 25th March), but I'm not trading those. I currently hold four shares which I intend to hold for years and year unless information changes and CNM is one of them.
My basic investment philosophy for CNM is exceedingly simple - I see a shift to green power as a very long term trend gathering momentum and taking place over decades. The ability to make desalinated water is also a bonus.
Obviously there is a current push towards green energy because of the whole global warming thing. But why would we use dirty fuel if a clean one is available? The world needs clean energy if only for the health of its people and animals. We can't eat fish because coal fired power plants have pumped the oceans full of mercury etc etc.
CNM initially expects their wave power to be competitive with wind power, and competitive with fossil fuels within 10 years. I have to look into the assumptions they've used there.
People are willing to pay more for clean energy than dirty energy, but given the choice at the same cost everyone would choose clean. How much of that pie will belong to CNM?
They are a long way from making money though, but the potential is truly amazing.
Now maybe my utopian view of earth with people driving electric cars running on renewable electricity, breathing clean air while looking at rainbows is an investing handicap, but I think there is a strong argument for things (ever so slowly) heading in that direction. If you ask anyone whether they'd use renewable or fossil power if they were the same price and everyone says they'd use renewable. What if CNM can actually make their power competitive within 10 years? Pretty big numbers. Obviously it begs the question... what if they can't?
To me CNM seems to have the potential to fail, meaning I'll lose most of my investment. However I also see the potential for CNM for be a $5 share after several years.
Anyway this is more of an opener and I'll say more here in the future, but in the mean time I invite you all to say your piece.
Cheers
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2998
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, March 26, 2008 - 02:41 pm: |
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Welcome to the Wilderness,Mr Lunch,where you get No Idea of What is readable/useful/Pointed to your fellow pilgrims to MaMMon because 'THEY" dare not speak just read in a Void,waiting for the convoluted babble of the Great Ones stating usually the Blessed Obvious[Hullo Sailor] or worse shutting up shop completely because what THEY know is for "Feeding d'Family".
So Mr Lunch as a "New" poster,how about doing by Example.
When at what price did you buy CNM?
Are you Full Up at say 10cents and will never be lured to buy another Parcel regardless of Developments?
This will allow Non Holders to see your Bias [if any] Mr Lunch and will also get you beyond any sniping re being a Dreaded ramper.
I may,might be interested in Buying CNM still even now if I get my required boxes ticked.
Currently I feel there's a Good Chance of a Further Retrace simply based on Carnegie NOT getting the $2mil FEDERAL Grant as well as not being able to crack the WA Gov't Funds being decided on allocation.
I've only read about CNM on chat rooms,Mr Lunch,pretty much.
I seem to remember reading about CNM going into "Battle" for Funding something down the SW corner of WA with Wind/Solar Gunner Bees providing Alternative Energy.
Know/Heard some/any thing about what on earth I'm alluding to?
Denying the Pork Barrel Federal Measly Election Two Million Pledge mightn't hurt too much IF the chances of that Energy Contract are Firming.But it's a 20 horse race I thought?
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3002
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 27, 2008 - 01:55 pm: |
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Here's the link to the article I'm waffling about above.
As you live in WA,Mr Lunch is there any update on progress?
There's talk of several desalination plants coming to SE Qld.They're muttering about Alternate Energy source to power these "energy guzzlers".
Anyhow the link
www.thewest.com.au/default.as...ontentID=53711
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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mrlunch
Member
Username: mrlunch
Post Number: 301
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 31, 2008 - 10:53 am: |
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Hi Dug, you'll excuse my slackness in follow up posting here, have been otherwise occupied for the last few days.
Also I can't send email to anyone at bigpond... an issue between yahoo and them. I'm trying to resolve the problem but so far no joy - though bigpond have actually been very helpful.
Now back to CNM - I currently hold less than half of the parcel of CNM I wanted - but I have bought what I have at an average price of around 12 cents, making this by a long way my best investment.
That was actually the reason I found it so easy to watch CNM go from 20 cents to almost 50 cents and back again - I never felt I had my full quota. The price got a few cents away from me when I was intending to stock up back November last year and I decided I wouldn't chase it because this was a decade long investment for me and I could be patient (!).
Now I don't really have the spare investment dollars to plough into it either, but it is still a potentially decade long investment for me so I would be a buyer still given the cash for it and the right TA setup to add more (such as the 25th of March or arguably even today having overcome that resistance at 32 cents - though some sort of retracement now is clearly very possible).
So now they are shortlisted of the Southern Seawater Desalination Plant (SSDP) which explains their recent charge up. What is especially encouraging to me from a TA basis is passing through the 32 cent mark which has proven to be a fierce obstacle in the past. It hasn't closed above it yet, but consolidation above 32 cents would be nice for me to see.
I'll see what the WA paper has to say about it all - however our newspaper out this way rarely has much goodness in it relative to other papers (though I guess Binningup, the location of the SSDP, is much more a WA thing than anywhere else so we'll see...)
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3015
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 31, 2008 - 11:26 am: |
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Are you researching into the Facts about CNM,though Mr Lunch?
I've briefly blinked at some of it's announcements and it's corporate set up and have found some "controversial" points.
You'll have to check these yourself.My blinks can be wrong/a misinterpretation but
a]I don't like the Several Inventions being developed by some Chairman "Boffin".They're all too "convenient" like a stab at Wind Power,an angle on Clean Coal along with this Wave Machine Gizmo.Too much of a Grab Bag in Green,I reckon.Too much Company being run for personal Ambition by this Boffin.
b]Did CNM get rid of the African Mineral Sands Tenement yet?
c]I particularly got a bad waft on d'draft when I saw CNM had sole,exclusivity Only in the Southern Hemisphere for these Wave Machines.
Are they developing testing this Gizmo so that the Northern Hemisphere [a much more lucrative market]can be sold into by this Inventor Bloke Individually?
If so?well point [a] above swings in Heavy.
I read recently that a lot of IPO's based on Green/Alternative Issues are out there ready to float.A comment was made that a lot of these IPO's are "opportunistic",one could say "rip offs".
There's several already listed shares in this "shadow" world,Mr Lunch.Running on Green Sentiment with little liklihood of Success.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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mrlunch
Member
Username: mrlunch
Post Number: 302
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 31, 2008 - 12:38 pm: |
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Hi Dug,
a] Yes I see your point. CNM basically have four technologies - all commercially unproven. They are 1) Wave Power (CETO); 2) Clean Coal; 3)Wind (more efficient aerofoil) and 4) Solar (store heat to be drawn for base load power.
3 and 4 were acquired recently from the "boffin" for nothing upfront, CNM will develop the technologies and pay the "boffin" a 2% royalty on revenue (note on revenue not profit!). They are both a long way from being commercial.
This boffin - Alan Burns - founded Hardman Resources. The company was quite a successful oil producer, moving from a share price in the cents to around $2.50. The reason this is important is that through his oil engineers CNM knows how to deal with materials in the ocean (I think he said somewhere the only industry that knows more about materials in the ocean than the oil industry is the shipping industry).
He also said somewhere that it is inevitable that one day essentially all of earth's power will be from renewable sources and not fossil fuels. I agree with that statement, and the real question to me is the timeline on which it will occur.
b] They still own 45% I think it is of Carnegie Minerals - the mineral sands company. I believe they will be a natural seller given the chance. I don't see that ownership as material to anything, more of a pile of cash when they sell it (not sure what size pile they'll get for it though).
c] Yes CNM only has rights to operate in the Southern Hemisphere. A European company, EDF Energie Nouvelle which is a subsidiary of EDF (the world's second largest power generation company) will be operating it in the northen hemisphere. REH (Renewable Energy Holdings) owns the technology ultimately. So the second largest power producer in the world wants in on the action. I see that as a vote of confidence.
REH will participate 10% in southern hemisphere wave farms, while CNM will be 90% (up to 97.5% depending on how much they spend on development).
It looks like REH will be a 25 - 49% participant in northern hemisphere wave farms, so presumably CNM gets a better long term deal because they are funding the development and taking on the greatest risk.
But yes - the north will be more lucrative in total, however even just Australia has plenty of scope but add to that New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, a bit of Indonesia and a couple of sites in Africa.
They sell more TV's in the north than they do here, but HVN and JBH still do a lot of business.
As for the whole green sentiment thing - I'd have to agree with you there. There are already plenty of companies that have listed and have fallen 50% or more after people realised there was no money in them. Obviously CNM, like other companies, is benefiting from green sentiment. That sentiment will be stronger still for whoever is left standing and making money.
Will CNM be one of those? Their technology works on a small scale. Wind power is making money and CNM believe initially they will be competitive with wind and get cheaper along the way. There are plenty of risks, but I feel the potential for reward is greater.
Why can't wave power provide 25% or more of out total electricity demand? Assuming the large scale works it is just a matter of investment in the infrastructure.
On a separate note, I actually think electricity demand will rise by a lot more than people think over the coming decades because people will be using it more and more for transport. In 30 years time the world should be running electric cars everywhere running on renewable electricity.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3017
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 31, 2008 - 02:04 pm: |
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All very interesting,Mr Lunch.You've saved me a lot of time staring [not blinking] at CNM angles.
The expertise in ocean going Materials from Oil is Tricky.According to Wikipedia corrosion effects and the need for expensive components is a major stumbling block to economical Wave Power.
Your bit about EDF New Energy being a SUBSIDIARY of the world's second largest Energy Producer reads well but is it a bit "smokey"?
Like is this company INVESTING in the Technology or is it just holding a kind of Option on sucessful development? Getting some kind of kudos for saying it'll Do It but only when someone else Proves/Commercially Develops NOT using their money?
Do you follow,Mr Lunch?
This 4% Holding by REH in Carnegie.Is that Mr Burn's vehicle,shareholding?
Where did that money in the Bank come from? EDF? REH? or where?
mrlunch wrote on Monday, March 31, 2008 - 01:38 pm:There are already plenty of companies that have listed and have fallen 50% or more after people realised there was no money in them.
You're not slagging my excellent picks of DYE and CFU here,isya Mr Lunch?
These two have Substantial Important Holders.They are on the Brink of Cash Flow Positive[DYE] or Major Orders [CFU].
They simply aren't spived and spinned amongst bleeding Sand Gropers,OK Mr Lunch!!
I find that the Green Companies who are for going down d'Tube are They who can only develop by relying on Aust Govt Subsidy/Grants and/or have Greenie Political Issues contra to their Objectives.
Ethanol/Bio Fuels is the Great Example but,Mr Lunch,DeSalination also has some Kicker about Excess Salt Return so ya CETO better not be for setting up near Fishery Areas.CNM better be able to get Private Funding for this Wave Farm douver,preferably NOT desalinating with it's proposed Energy.
Yeah,I see that the $10mil short list Grant is for only Energy generation but if it rains again in a Monsoon in Qld later this year All the Proposed Desal Plants around here will be CHOPPED!No Carnegie Go here,mate!
Anyhow,I'm only joking,pulling ya leg,don't be insulted,start pushin' d'Abuse Button.
cheers,
jr
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 983
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 31, 2008 - 03:01 pm: |
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Goodness me where did this one get the herbs from ?
I had noticed you guys rabbitting on about CNM but had not looked closely at it til today ~ I got a feeling it will have a breather round here, and will be worth hopping onto if it decides to behave from here
Daily chart:
Happy trading DYOR
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mrlunch
Member
Username: mrlunch
Post Number: 304
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 31, 2008 - 03:41 pm: |
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Hi Tryhay.
Well I'd say CNM has just ran out of herbs - which is fair enough having rallied 43% in 5 days. Interestingly it didn't quite manage to close above or even at 32 cents, a level I consider significant.
However this time around the selling pressure near 32 seems less intense than previously, so hopefully it can consolidate around these levels...
Anyway this appeared in the West Australia today:
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Title: Water Corp shortlists wind and waves
Groundbreaking wave and biomass technology is being considered to help power WA's second desalination plan near Binningup, north of Bunbury.
The Water Corporation yesterday shortlisted 11 proponents seeking to provide up to 200 megawatt hours of energy, enough to run the 45GL, $1 billion desalination plant due to produce drinking water by the end of 2011.
Eighteen proponents lodged expressions of interest in providing 160 magawatt hours from proved renewable energy technology or 40 megawatt hours from unproved technology. The seven shortlisted for the proved technology proposed wind farms or biomass plants burning waste wood. The unproved technology four proposed wave power or biomass projects.
*********************************************
I'll respond to you other queries later dug, though so far you're yet to offend me so you'll have to try harder
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3043
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 18, 2008 - 10:22 am: |
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See you're back from a break,Mr Lunch so when you can get round to it,would you comment on the following?
Is this fancy,French Global No2 Power Company actually putting any money at all into the Northern Hemisphere side of things?
What did CNM get out of floating the AIM listed entity Renewable Energy[whatever]?Was that the source of the $10 milish in the Bank?
Now,I think WA is pretty xenophobic in the sense that there's a lot of local money willing to back local enterprises.This "inventor" bloke,ex Hardman,is he a sorta colourful identity around Perth?He sure seems to qualify for wearing white shoes.Mouths the right "key" words in these regular announcements.
Like yesterday's,really so what some City Councils are looking at releasing under the sea land for CNM/Ceto Tech wave farms to "footprint" all over the sea bed!!
Geezus,Mr Lunch they could be put in bleeding South Australia!! so what?
When they [CNM] say it's Commercial do they mean they have to hunt up Finance/Bulk Buck$ or are they relying on the public purse to come flooding them with the wherewithal?
I smell SPIV,Mr Lunch.A GunnerDo as long as the Money comes from AnyWhere else.
Like if this was Qld Based,CNM would be wanting to get seaside land allocated to them so they could finance by selling off beach side Appartments overlooking their Wave Machine!!
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3
Post Number: 272
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 18, 2008 - 11:49 am: |
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Hi Dug and Mr Lunch...maybe this a bit of an intrusion on this Long-Term ASX thread but if you allow me to post the following chart that seems to suggest atleast(technically) in the Short-Term the bias is for further upside from here.
It gave a T.A.Z. set-up(see Short-Term ASX forum for explanation) and confirmation two days ago at 28c(blue line) which seems to suggest at the very least we should re-visit 32c+ and who knows if we can get through there the momentum that has been building up over the past 4 months it could really take off, granted with increased interest?
Cheers
Dolphin
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3044
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 18, 2008 - 12:55 pm: |
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