Speculative buys

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superboot

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Post Number: 58
Registered: 07-2003

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Tuesday, June 17, 2008 - 01:59 pm:

Hi all,

I am interested to know how others identify and manage speculative buys (< $1). An example is MGX (Mt. Gibson Iron ) which was priced at $0.25 in late 2004, now trading at around $3.20

I currently trade and invest in the larger, more mainstream shares.

Cheers
Super

dug

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Post Number: 3248
Registered: 07-2005

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Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 09:53 am:

How to..?
Firstly Look for shares to buy yourself.All on your own.No Brokers,Fund Analyst Reports will be available in the initial stages[20cents]to give you any "justifications".

Secondly you will get No Kudos down d'Barbque for being involved in Speculative,Penny Shares.Outsiders will think you Mad,a Fool'n'their Money.

Thirdly remove any Psychology that prompts you to Buy the Bottom.Remove any ideas,thoughts that leads to you concluding that the Share Price has Got away from you,sigh,If only I bought it at 15 cents but now it's 20?I've missed out.

Fourthly use Daily/weekly Momentum Lists as well as New Yearly High Lists to gather together a Watchlist of Potential Buys.

Fifthly there's a Market Legend/Motto that goes there's more Umphf/Go in Explorers than Producers.

There's more if I bothered to think[not enuf coffee yet] but the above is at least some Basics for finding one Goer from time2time.

chart illustrating New Highs areas of alert.
Note BLESSED Well how one will have to Manage the Trade with Stops etc as well as Going In and being Shaken Out.

It's the Psycho you have to Kick Goals with most of all.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Post Number: 3249
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Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 01:44 pm:

dug wrote on Wednesday, June 18, 2008 - 09:53 am:
Fourthly use Daily/weekly Momentum Lists as well as New Yearly High Lists

Here ya go,superboot.What ya reckon on this? are ya game?

Go by the 6 months and it's well and truly Awaaaay,hey?One would reckon it'd have to Retrace No Worries and those Day Traders are MAD!!

Yet check since when this first floated less than 18mths ago?

and it's pretty much only returned to it's "range".
So check WHY? has this happened today?What's d'Story?
and I might see you in the HEM thread to be set up in Short Term Iron Ore Jnrs.

Another point on Speccies is they start out ONLY as a Short Term Ploy that turns Long Term Hold If/When they never hit your trailing Stop.

I hold HEM but I don't know for How Long.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

superboot

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Post Number: 59
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Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 01:51 pm:

Hey Dug,

Thanks for your insight and your graphs. It does looks like a big breakout with volume. I will follow the thread for HEM with interest and will do some of my own analysis and see what I come up with. Nothing like a good example to help learn the speccy ropes.

Cheers

dug

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Post Number: 3250
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Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 02:30 pm:

superboot wrote on Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 01:51 pm:
learn the speccy ropes.

Haven't got around to it myself but if you wanted to learn some ropes,you could go thru a Winner like say,MGX refering Chart Movements to Announcements.
What News Sustains a Price Rise?
Moves it up Levels?
You'd find the Gradings,Jorc Classifications.
Management Moves.
Share Register Participants.who comes in where and leaves at what price Gain or Loss.
What Happened when Placements occurred.

All that kind of "stuff" that the unnamed
GufFAws
at,superboot.

I call it Market Mechanism Studies.
A step for a pilgrim to MaMMon.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Post Number: 3251
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Thursday, June 19, 2008 - 03:12 pm:

A deja vu of HEM.
How it could play out?

I'll set up an Examples thread within this thread,superboot for HEM,URM um ahhs on current running speccies.
soon but later.
cheers.

Repeat of Hem Long Term.Is URM a pathfinder/example of Future HEM moves?

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 759
Registered: 10-2005

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Votes: 1


Friday, June 20, 2008 - 07:41 am:

Just remember one of dug's last big poppers was CFU when it went from 40c to 80c overnight only to fall back to where it came from.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Post Number: 3252
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Friday, June 20, 2008 - 10:43 am:

If someone hadn't given you 5 stars,ohk,for a one sentence post?I'd politely reply to you making no mention of how you buy Nothing.
But THEY have so I won't.
Have you any method contra/complementary/anything at all?or are you still sulking,regretting the Ways of d'World don't suit ya and your computer model?

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 760
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Friday, June 20, 2008 - 03:33 pm:

I buy plenty of stuff I just don't bother posting it. Who wants to read about loser stocks anyhow? I wasn't criticising your pick. I have been watching CFU for two years now. I was just pointing out that there are risks involved in popping stocks and after it pops one needs a strategy besides "buy anything that pops".

Yes I am still sulking because of the mistakes I made and I pretty much arrived at the conclusion that bank interest and dollar cost averaging an index fund is a far more relaxed life to lead. I wouldn't recommend trading stocks to anybody.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Post Number: 3254
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Friday, June 20, 2008 - 03:45 pm:

I'll post on CFU in it's thread.Recently Sold Out of it.I did d'dreaded double downs,ran a day trade Sell/Buy Back In operation but still had to let it go at a Loss.

This proposal of superboots is to enter pennies and ride them thru Blue Sky to BUCK$,even Blue Chip Star Stock Status.

Obviously superboot is Non Depressive!!

A Vast Improvement on Some,hey ohk?
even meself,pilgrim.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

superboot

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Post Number: 60
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Tuesday, June 24, 2008 - 09:25 pm:

Hey there Dug,

Any thoughts on JPR? Looks to have broken through the 30day ema and has some increase in volume. Energy sector is obviously one of the healthier sectors. RSI is on the way down so I would hold off for the moment.

Would you look for more volume? A greater price jump? Check the fundatmentals?

Hopefully the pic has been loaded.... yes the market is a little frustrating, but I see it as a test to develop some good trading habits... it is all too easy in the middle of a bull market.

Cheers.

dug

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Post Number: 3263
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Wednesday, June 25, 2008 - 10:27 am:

What in General triggers your interest in a particular share,superboot?
Why JPR and not one of the others in the multitude of Energy shares?
Oil and Gas Shares are a Specialised Area.I'm not into them.They run basically on Announcements.Wide Range Price wise on Strikes or NOT.Pilgrims in Oil seem to BUY a Range of various shares in the industry/happening fields and then trade them IF/When they Strike.
Me?I particularly try to avoid exotic locations,especially Wilderness and Kazakhstan sure qualifies in that Criteria.

supa are you seriously trying to find the next diamond like MGX in the coal field of pennies?
or are you just wanting direction into the Penny Thrills'n'Spills?

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

mum

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Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 10:14 am:

Check out PEV.
They mine calcium betonite (used as a feed supplement and fertilizer substitute) and sodium bicarb. yes baking soda
They are just getting going. Might be worth a punt, they are actually mining the stuff. I have no idea how to price them but 6c at the moment.
What do ya reckon Dug

azworkinit

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Post Number: 45
Registered: 02-2008

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Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 12:54 pm:

Here's a spec just floated.OKJ or Oakajee.It is a limestone products company with a supply on the Coronation road into the New proposed port.It is situated within a few kms of the prop port,so transport costs to the port proponents,or themselves would be minimal.There would be some announcements to help this along with the first being the confirmation of the port proponent by the W.A. Govt in the next couple of weeks.There are a lot of limestone rocks in a port breakwater.Any comments?.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 02:53 pm:

belinda aka mum-From Phoslock I learnt bentonite is one of the most common minerals.Don't know about Calcium bentonite but PEV seems to be going into the Fertilizer ploy a bit tenuous with Organic Fertilizer.
This is a reconstructed Finance Company isn't it?All a bit dodgy at first glance.
Is speculation getting on to the most offbeat thing going?Anything that is adjunt/adjacent to d'HOT?like fertilizer?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

azwok-hope you're not time cheating your day job.
This OKJ are you saying it's got a limestone quarry down the road from a Proposed Port?
Combine this with the existing Port having been made by piling up limestone rocks?
and Voila!! we've got a possible winner/Goer?

Ummm what's d'going rate for naked rocks?like have OKJ got some Monopoly on Gibbers out around there?
Didn't I read that OKJ is into Building Materials made from reconstructed limestone?Will they want to sell Bulk of their stock with No Value Added just chuck it into the Sea to Form some Port Maybe?

azworkinit-does going troppo come early in WA!!

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Post Number: 46
Registered: 02-2008

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Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 03:21 pm:

You have a point there,Dug.The beauty of OKJ having a lease for 10 yrs and further renewal options of 10 times 7yrs is they could always move somewhere else along the coast with another lease.The downside being of course that the port proponents both being miners,could just find some stone themselves and dig it out!.The long term interest for OKJ is obviously the price competitive stone they can provide to all manner of infrastructure to the soon to be burgeoning city of Geraldton and surrounds.The price of fuel being what it is means transporting stone north from near perth,where the nearest competition is should make these guys seriously competitive.Being on the door of a port opens up other transport options as well.I read somewhere that stone ex quarry is about 40bucks per sqm.As for going troppo,the weather in Gero isn't far removed from your beloved QLD and us local fisho's like a drop of your local brew.As for work,they held off on startup at the new site,so have been talking to your beloved MGX/Tallerang Peak,looks positive too.Only an hour and half from home!.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Post Number: 3267
Registered: 07-2005

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Votes: 1


Thursday, June 26, 2008 - 06:26 pm:

azwork,
It's all in d'Brave New World.
See in the Past it was not worth putting Public Infrastructure into Mining Areas and Geralton does not have the claim as the Pialbra.
Now are d'Perthites Satisfied?Willing to have Money spent at your place rather than more'n'more Grandiose Perth Icons?

See,azwork WA encapsulates the whole Northern vs Southerners in the one State.
Just like the East Coast you have all these Southern Spivs and No Hopers[usually Blow In/Foreigners]in Perth dictating to you because THEY have d'Democratic Numbers to...
well,STUFF YOU.
We d'Southerners are "Sophisticated" and You[d'Northerners] are just Hicks so hicks plough that field so we can go bleeding SAILING!!!Swanning around,well,d'Swan!!

This is all called being able to take a Political Situation to your Life based on mere Geography!!
are ya in2it,azwok?
or is politics just some Ding that happens to ya LifeStyle?

Feel FREE!!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Post Number: 47
Registered: 02-2008

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Friday, June 27, 2008 - 03:45 pm:

Hey Dug,I never have been one to subscribe to class agenda's and us and them attitudes.The state Govt knows we're here,it's only 4 hrs to Perth.The southerners love comin up for the weather, and the beaches and town are a tad nicer than Port Hedland.Ever been there?,there's a good reason it's fly in fly out mostly.Oh,this just in!.
Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

azworkinit

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 11:00 am:

Hey Dug,how do I find the MGX thread!.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 11:17 am:

Might not be one,azwok or if there is may be long out of date.
but you could try the search function portal,up in the last line,left hand box,top of the Topics page.
Find that and you'll show potential/skills to handle the Share Search mechanism!

I'm interested in mDx not mGx but rudy down in Daily Bread holds MGX from recently still,I think,so maybe you can chat about it there?
rudy doesn't come into many other threads than Bread.He's got some feeling of protection there from ol' Salty.
but that's maybe a bit "class agenda" for ya,azwok like NO CLASS vs the Rest etc etc blah waffle.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 11:24 am:

I notice OL SALTY,ignores most of whom venture into his thread, and when none wan't to converse with him because of that,come's stompin into others to get some diversity in his life.Also accuses you of wasting time on strats but obviously reads the thresd anyway.Hmm,hypocritical?.Was out at MGX yesterday and the fellow showing me around reckons the main pit just hit the paydirt,so coming year should be good production figures.Also got the next shotfirers job that comes up out there.Offered me a trainee dumpy drivers job,though prefer to wait.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 08:11 pm:

azworkinit wrote on Monday, June 30, 2008 - 11:24 am:
fellow showing me around reckons the main pit just hit the paydirt,so coming year should be good production figures.

the trouble with ASX100 Companies,azwork is that they are analysed within a 100grand$ of Production.That may be a bit extreme of a figure $100k but say 5/10mil especially in the Nett would be "conservative".

Anyway,what I'm trying to say is that some fellow guiding you around the Pit isn't some Deep Throat Insider.
PayDirt was Expected/Anticipated.
It'd be more newsworthy if he'd told ya on d'Side that Current Workings had come up DUD!!
then,azwork ya coulda Shorted the Bottom out of MGX and been a IC hero like say Jesse Livermore!!

Anyway,hope you get d'Day Job.It's still quite convenient to Hearth'n'Home for you.

regards.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

azworkinit

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 08:47 pm:

How does that work Dug?.If they come up dud,and Ive bought in now,does the price not go down.If I tell the world and the price goes down,and bought,will it come back up?.Tell me the way, oh great bwana,Im obviously a little slow on the uptake.Regards Az.

"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

dug

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 09:44 pm:

it's called Shorting,Going Short,azwork.
One borrows some shares from a "pool".
One then sells the shares for,say,$3.
One's ambition is to then buy back the shares borrowed at a Lower Price say $2.
Thus you've got $1 Gross Profit from never ever actually Owning the Shares.You've made money from the decline in fortune of mere holders.The Longs.
This is called being "Sophisticated",azwork.

So do you see?
that IF you'd got "insider" info that the Pit was a Dud
AND you'd rung up and got some Shares to Short/Open a Short
then waited for the Company to announce the Fact of Dud Pit?
well you'd be able to Close your Short on the decimated share price.
You don't ever HOLD when shorting.
You Sell to Open and Buy to Close.

that's the basic Gist,pilgrim azwork.
It's a Wild World d'Market,hey?
getting an inkling on how us and them operates?
doing d'seperate,yet?
or are ya still all warm'n'fuzzy 'bout everyone?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Friday, July 04, 2008 - 11:45 am:

superboot,
you still with us?
referring to your profile I see your occupation is IT Professional.I realise that covers a wide field but I thought you may be interested in Zylotech [ZYL]as an exercise is Speculative Spotting.
Now ZYL is the absolutely last listed share in the All Industrials.It's introducing DVD surveillance [instead of CCTV]as well as having some gizmo compact for multi computer connenctions.Some such activity DYOR but the interesting bit is
a]They're on the Cusp of being Cash Flow Positive

b]ZYL doesn't have too many shares on issue.There's a bit of Management Resistance to Constantly Issuing Placements.

c]They have a very low Market Capitalisation considering IF they are self-funding,cash flow positive.Low Market Capitalisation that gets rerated,superboot,of course gives wide leeway for price moves up.

superboot,as you opened this thread wanting to investigate How/Why/When pennies raise themselves to great heights for fun and profit[a la MGX]?
well,boot,one way to get such a ride is by anticipating the Return from d'Ashes by a sector.
There aren't reams of stories out there about the Glories Possible out of IT sector shares.
No,all "sensibile" pilgrims are pouring over Iron Ore and Energy Stocks,not game to look at anything they haven't been told to do.

So superboot are you an adventurer or just a mere follower of fashion?
Have you any Input at all to give re ZYL because of your Occupation?
What we are searching for is some idea of whether these Multi Contracts Announced to Fancy,Reputable Companies are making ZYL ANY Profits,Cash in their Mit Free'n'Clear
OR whether they're just Churning,Selling Sheerly for Market Share a paltry exercise in Intellectual Gratification.

Happy trading.

ps-I hold Nil ZYL but I see it as a High Possible Speculation.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.