New Hope NHC

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dug

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Post Number: 3464
Registered: 07-2005

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 11:11 am:

I hold this and am,in FAct,still accumulating it so first up IC you have my bias.

This is a Go at a Long Term Hold of d'Respectable/a Blue Chip Go.

In the short term by around October this year,NHC is paying a Special Dividend of FULLY FRANKED 72centsish.So in gross returns,what's that?72cents is divided by what to get the Pre Tax Gross?I forget but I think it works out to be $1.

What I mostly follow is that this is a "Guaranteed" 18-25 Percent on a $4> Buy Price.
This is "In d'Mail".I don't have to SELL to get it.

All I have to see and follow is that WHEN the dividend is paid and NHC goes ex-dividend that my Holding doesn't get Capital Depreciated into a Nett Loss or significantly.
IE by Octoberish I'm "planning" on NHC being above say $5 so it can cushion against my Accumulated Max $4 Hold.

Anyway there's the Plot/d'Scenario and here's the chart.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rex_woof

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Post Number: 11
Registered: 02-2009

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 03:51 pm:

Dug

So you are accumulating pre-breaking the all time high?

The Weinstein way is to make the first purchase on break above historical highs, and accumulate more on a pull back. He says something about volume in there too.

His argument is that if the stock breaks a significant high, it has also broken significant resistance. And if there is no nearby overhead resistance, the stock is likely to rapidly advance.

Mind you, it is a pretty gutsy move buying a stock when it makes its all time high. And that is when having faith in your trading system pays off. ;-)

REx.

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dug

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 09:30 pm:

rex_woof wrote on Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 04:51 pm:
The Weinstein way is to make the first purchase on break above historical highs

rex as i've stated i haven't read the Book.I'm wondering that you may have mis-understood "historical" with "significant"?

Was he talking about Higher Highs which is a bit of a "confusing" term but Higher High is Significant while ATH/Year High is Historical.Do ya follow?
Higher Highs often happen on a 30week break,but I've yet to see a 12Month High happen near such an "event".

My limited Maths Knowledge [which is concentrated in percentage calculations without pen or paper] Anyway in my head I can't follow how a share AT an All Time/Year High could possibly achieve that at or around the same time as Breaking the DownTrend Indicator of LTMA.
Think about it in Simple Moving Average Terms-The 30week average Break Makes a new Year High.Surely that happens long after a DownTrend Break/A 30w Break?

Otherwise the share for some 30weeks has been in Very Tight Consolidation at or really near the Peak.30weeks=150Trading Days,rex.A Long Term Holder or an Anticipator Jumping d'Gun would be preeeeeety BORED by then don't ya reckon?

So IMHO I think if you read Weinstein again you'll find he's possibly talking about Significant Higher High and NOT Historical Year Highs,the Highest it's ever been in a Year or in ALL TIME.

say it ain't so,rex and you'll teach me a lesson that will revolutionise my thinking and "humble" me quick smart.
cheers.

rex_woof wrote on Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 04:51 pm:
His argument is that if the stock breaks a significant high

ps-rereading/editing this I'm thinking I may be mixing up the 30WMA break DownTrend chat with what Stan was saying separate about New High points.I don't usually do the Night Shift,rex so if that's how it is?ya haven't Humbled me yet!!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rex_woof

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Registered: 02-2009

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 10:30 pm:

Dug

Going have to get back to you on this. A little tied up the next couple of days. Perhaps over the weekend.

Must dash.

REx.

dug

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Post Number: 3467
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Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 10:34 pm:

A year long Day Chart.

rex_woof wrote on Wednesday, April 01, 2009 - 04:51 pm:
So you are accumulating pre-breaking the all time high?

I searched for A share that had maintained being above it's previous year 07/8 status of All Time High achieving in 08/09.
I went thru the Coal Sector and found New Hope.

At the time of this "discovery" NHC had established Support at approx $3.To my eye it was setting up around 325 too.So I bought a small parcel of 1000 or so using 125 as a Stop.

It naturally broke 125 and i was out.However it reestablished at 3ish support again and I got IN at 306.
While all this Testing the Waters was going on,I read up on some Reasons why it might be Falling and found down d'BarBque the pundits were putting it down to NHC having sold out of Mettalurgical Coal and stuck with Thermal and this was a Terrible Thing,in their "expert" Opinion.

So do you see rex how as I can't work Algorhytms to save my life,I have to use FA which is dirty words around HERE at IC.

Anyway it was this Sale of a Tenement that gave NHC this 70cent Special Dividend Capability plus Best Of All some Billion Dollar$$$ in the Kitty besides.
Ca$$h rich,rex.No need for NHC to raise money,dilute their Share Register with Placements etc etc blah.

New Hope is in d'Box Seat for rationalizing the Qld Coal Industry.Do you know much about Coal,rex?Do you use your TA searches in Sectors with at least some BackGround of their particulars?
I do and personally I call it Scenario Trading.The Story that GOes with it.

Anyhow I have a few favoured Plot Lines.For example Share Register Analysis.Number of Shares on Issue and who holds them Substantially.
but I don't think any "revelations" about such matters would be of real interest to a Algorithmic System "Freak"[see i can't even SPELL Algo[whatever]

best be off.
tomorra.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

rex_woof

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Thursday, April 02, 2009 - 01:03 am:

Ok ... Slinking back here with my tail between my legs. Read on.

Weinstein says in his section "Less resistance the better" that the less overhead resistance, the better. He expands on this by looking at graphs with no overhead resistance for 2.5 and 10 years, saying that they are great buy -- I guess your all time high scenario.

The 12-month high scenario came from Colin Nicholson. He uses a filter of looking for stocks making a 12-month high. I also derived my different stop loss systems from his growth/value models. See this post http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=1809428&post=145465 .

Incidentally Colin N. also uses some basic FA as filters.

At this stage I do not use any FA, at either a sector or stock level -- I am just testing TA ideas at the moment.

So I have taken bits and pieces of various author's scratchings and attributed them to the wrong authors in my previous posts. Whoops. A bit of a bitser trading system.

I might just refer to it as the Mongrel Rex Trading System. ;-)

Rex. (woof!)

(Message edited by rex_woof on April 02, 2009)

(Message edited by rex_woof on April 02, 2009)

dug

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Friday, April 03, 2009 - 10:10 am:

Didn't I see someone trying to start a thread on Pairing Shares somewhere?Pairing was used to Monitor,create your personally designed Sector to get around the Standard and Poor Conventional ones that are not Specific enough.Contain quite Divergent Companies under a banner that they are in the same Industry,pretty much,kinda.
Anyway,this is a long time "revelation" at IC.That one should DIY on Sectors and so here's a Pair To New Hope.

New Hope has some 18% stake Sub Holding in Arrow[AOE].You can confirm this by going to the NHC Half Year Report.If you look up,however AOE's Sub Holders you will find NHC's Holding described as,well,XYZ P/L or something.That's New Hope's Investment Arm.

So Arrow is New Hope's Development division.Note that it is pretty well funded In House as well.
Chart shows mighty similar Break Out and Solidness,hey

and rex see the All Time High Approach in "practicality"

cheers

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

gdd3

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Friday, April 03, 2009 - 01:01 pm:

Dug...you may be on a good thing here...atleast short-term as NHC yesterday action satisfied the final criteria for a buy via the T.A.Z. set-up process at around $3.85.

1/...prior trading action above the 150EMA(my preferential criteria),
2/... then a pullback into the T.A.Z. zone(10MA and 30EMA) and to test good structural support($3.78 - $3.68),
3/...Both Williams%R's (14day and 3day)were in the right area for a bounce(at or below -80%), plus both have little "hooks" in these indicators(again a preference of mine but not one of Craig's rules).
4/...Yesterday' candle had higher close than the set-up candle and a higher volume.

The only downside at the moment(for this short-term trade signal) is that the buyer interest has dried up a little (Market Depth B/S balance).

But, hey as long as $3.68 holds on a close basis over the next 2 day's I'm interested. Just may even get another crack at that level for a secondary T.A.Z. set-up and consequently a better entry point.

Good luck with her...

Cheers

Dolphin

dug

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Saturday, April 11, 2009 - 11:21 am:

So did you Buy,gdd3,this week?I did a bit more.

What do you think of Simple Averaging Volume as an "indicator" of Buyer Interest?Probably Day Volume based over a Year is too Wide? 60days a Quarter may be preferable?
I'm toying with a Count from Significant News/Start of the Up Move as an alternative.Wotcha reckon,dolphin?

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Saturday, April 18, 2009 - 02:58 pm:

Chart Update on State of Position/Play-

So I've pyramided my Parcel up to a 364 Break Even.As stated above I'm primarily looking for the 70ishFF Special Dividend in October to give me Waaaaay above Bank Interest.

I see New Hope NOT coming under much,if at all Tax Loss Selling this year/season.However there is a chance/possibility of it hitting Take Profit dealing both in June and July.
June Tax PROFIT selling is not often spoken about.I've observed it chiefly in NAV a few years ago.

Basically I say it's "caused" by True Traders who are unconcerned by Tax Ramifications and find in June that any Run UP in June mainly causes a Restriction of Supply by Proper Investor Types not taking Profit Windfalls because of Danged Tax!!
Do you follow?A June Run has legs because of difficulties to produce Sellers who go
"Oh if it's this High in June,won't I have a Fabo Position in July?Might sell then and have 18months before I pay Tax.Ohh pat,pat,Ain't I sophisticated!!"
Meanwhile the Only Sellers are mainly d'IN Crowd.Reaping Rewards of not being such... well..KnowIt all Gullibles.

Anyway,there's also Tax Profit SELLING before June30 so one has something to write ya previous Capital Losses off against in this year not sometime out in d'Never Never.

Happy Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

dug

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Saturday, April 25, 2009 - 12:24 pm:

What else do ya NEED?like Want as a Signal for a GOer?
NEW HOPE is Textbook.d'Blessed Ody Approved Star System tells you so!!
It's also retraced classically according to Weinstein by Bouncing/retracing after breaking the 30wk=150 Trading days Average.
It's regaining into it's previous Range for an ASSULT on All Time HIGH.
It's going to PAY ya 18%+FF Special Dividend in November.That's IRON CLAD not for being Withdrawn as on offer with some Director drivel about
In these perilious financing times we,your prudent Management have decided to NOT do what we said ... etcetra blah.

Look one of our Fellow Members,Cat Lady[yes she's a real woman not some chat site pseudo]
Anyway,Cat Lady did the Trading Profile "Game" anyone can play up in IC Psych Section and she got classified SPECIFICALLY as being a Warren Buffett type Trader AND She's Buying NEW HOPE!!
That's a Real Person Endorsement that any Non Holders or They who follow Advice that you don't take Tips from Chat Rooms should at least ponder

Anyway,Short Term Close Up Chart-

Oh no Basic TA again.How can you really say you're a TA "expert" or one who uses d'TA Guide if you don't run some dozen Indicators to back your chart,make your conclusions.
Pomposity!!No I'm not saying that!
I'm merely stating that I don't use a pack of indicators that one needs High Maths Skills to DIY with and I'm too tired to learn about all those MACD,RSI,Scholastics JIVE.
Yeah like them I'm Lagging but I'm Free!!

Anyhow,all i need to see is that $4 ish is now officially set up as Support.By following DIY research on NHC I also know that the Retrace was "exacerbated" by a Dividend Pay.
A Normal Dividend that is,some 4/7cents?I forget at d'mo, but the Important thing is that NHC quickly recovered,revalued or was not seen YET as d'DIVIDEND Strip PLAY of d"CENTURY!!

I do go on,hey?I got lots of Angles on NHC.So many I reckon I should be PAID to spread 'em but I'm Free you see so all I have to get is Rebuttal or Constructive Criticism of my Concepts/Propositions or at least some sign that they are being Read like
I've laid out this Thread to INFORM and Enlighten about a How I reckon Share Trading/Investing COULD be Done by illustrating thoughts on a Single Share of NEW HOPE.

Am I wasting my time?

Happy Trading

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

baysider

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Wednesday, October 21, 2009 - 08:29 pm:

Hi Dug

As the authority on NHC can you give us an update please on your view as to what as happened now NHC has gone ex div. Did you and Ody make the right decision baling out early to lock in your profits?

What's the strategy from here?

dug

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Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 02:07 pm:

I sold at a substantial profit.$2 on $3.64.went up still further after i sold.i call that leaving some crumbs for those who came in late.

now at the time i also sold my other few holdings except dyesol.I was clearing the decks of all my short term plays[less than 6 of them]

anyway,yes i'll be getting back into new hope sometime soon but in trying to formulate a reply to your request?well the Chart has gone all weird on me.NHC got to $6ish a couple of days/a week ago yet the Chart is not showing it.

also seems to be some manouvre of setting up a Cum Dividend Market in NHC that I could find Nothing On at a brief Glimpse.
I reckon those Dow Jones Wire Service Items are a real PAIN of Irrelevancy.

anyhow,have you baysider any idea at all about this Cum Market.tell us about it in your "sensible" style.

overall,NHC is shaping up.d'Pilgrims are waking up to their Arrow Stake as well as the Billion+ STILL in bank ex Dividend.
New Hope is gaining General Publicity thru paying this Special Dividend and should attract serious money in future months.
i'll be looking for TA entry points once i work out what d'blazes has warped the Chart!!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

baysider

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Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 03:44 pm:

Couldn't work it out myself - I saw it was 5.80 then a big plunge to 4.80 on my Bell Direct chart but not the same on IC - confusing!! I thought it might be something to do with the dividend but don't know what.

Love today DYE 10% by the way!!!! In your own 'special' way, genius!

hershy

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Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 06:32 pm:

Dug here is a chart to show you were not delusional.
Well, not about the NHC chart anyway.

And here is more proof, so it's not an "adjustment".

The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, it’s made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/