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Author Message  muzza Member Username: muzza Post Number: 142 Registered: 06-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Friday, August 27, 2004 - 09:03 pm:     Coal = Part of the Energy Sector. Weekly Chart: (With my coding of RoAR!!) Upper Chord - Bright Green Lower Chord - Pink Central Chord - Dotted Pink Then Guppy MMAs (EMAs) A RISING RoAR of currently 565.93 Not exactly a Blue Chip (which I think the Alan Hull system recommends that the Active Investor sticks to) - but what the heck. Regards  tony_m Member Username: tony_m Post Number: 137 Registered: 01-2003 Rating:  Votes: 1 Saturday, August 28, 2004 - 08:41 am:     Looks ok from an Alan Hull charting perspective but from a fundamental perspective is a basket case. In stockdoctor it is rated as in 'distress' the worst of the 5 risk ratings categories (remember HIH and Onetel). A lot of red ink and very high debt levels. From a risk management perspective it wouldn't be remotely on the radar screen of Alan Hull stocks. Keep your finger close to the trigger. Tony_M INCREDIBLE OFFER     -    only $12 USD per month FREE Incredible Charts Pro software Powerful stock screener End-of-day data for NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX and ASX Ten years adjusted data history; and Hundreds of Indices 30 day FREE trial    -     Download Here   muzza Member Username: muzza Post Number: 143 Registered: 06-2003 Rating:  Votes: 1 Saturday, August 28, 2004 - 06:29 pm:     Tony, The "emoticon" of wink was a hint - I agree that this stock is F/A challenged. My background has required me to do a little work on the F/A front, and that background still influences my long term "investing". T/A and "trading" or "active investing" is another matter - ride the trend till it dies (as the experienced traders say) and be sensible about % of risk capital in each trade, S/L etc. I still have much to learn on this front. It will be interesting with this equity to see if it pulls back to what a fair valuation metric suggests - but meanwhile something has gotten the herd excited. Strange as it is two analysts follow this one on Commsec - ABN AMRO and Wilson HTM (both very much fundamentalists) - one strong buy and one buy - go figure!! Thank you so much for taking the time to reply.  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 417 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Saturday, August 28, 2004 - 11:23 pm:     A friend of mine, an extremely fundamental investor, and extremely successful too, (think multi, multi-millions over 40 years) has just invested fairly big-time in GCL Gotta take notice of that...... ;) . -- Best wishes, NightStalker "The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"  muzza Member Username: muzza Post Number: 147 Registered: 06-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Sunday, August 29, 2004 - 01:02 pm:     Hey night, Do you think that you would be able to get your friend to comment on his/her rationale for a large position in GCL? I must admit that trying to integrate fundamentals and technicals has proven difficult for me - hence on this forum I (try to) focus on T/A. If you look at GCL based on pure F/A (for instance if the goal was to do a DCF valuation) then what you see is: Sales growth: 1yr -32%, 5yr -34.5% cash flow: 1yr -1,037%, 5yr -200% Earnings: 1yr -40.3%, 5yr -189% NPAT: negative for 5 years. Yet the P/E ratio is a whopping 607% - WHY??? Perhaps its because some analysts have a forward earnings projection over 2yrs of 150%. This is probably based on the assumption that the new Duralie and Bowen road operations will underpin revenues from here - and these only came online in Q2 2003. My personal opinion - AND THIS IS PURE SPECULATION on my part - is that a company with such a woeful track record, with little financial muscle to exploit a significant energy lease (coal), would have to be a takeover target. If the Duralie and Bowen road assets are indeed high quality coking coal deposits, then I think the chart is actually screaming "take over" potential, and nothing else. It would be nice to know what your friend thinks. regards  nightstalker Member Username: nightstalker Post Number: 421 Registered: 04-2004 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Monday, August 30, 2004 - 06:20 pm:     I'll ask him Muzza. But I'm going away for a couple of weeks on Thursday, and I may not be able to contact him prior to that. If I can, I'll find out and post his reasoning. I hasten to add that I'm a complete and total "DUHH" when it comes to funnymentals. I think I understand a P/E ratio - possibly - but not a lot else in terms of balance sheets, ratios, etc. I let StockDoctor do that for me. However, I can and do make a point of trying to understand the non-financial fundamentals of a company, such as the business they're in, the economic background in which the business is operating, and current affairs that may affect the business. Such as general elections, etc ;) . (Message edited by nightstalker on August 30, 2004) -- Best wishes, NightStalker "The trend is your friend till the bend at the end"  tony_m Member Username: tony_m Post Number: 138 Registered: 01-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 11:21 pm:     Folks, in my case as a retiree and one one who runs, and also lives from the output of, my super fund, I probably have a different perspective on the market to most on the forum. It is not a sideshow but a matter of survival. I am very risk sensitive so within the framework of factors which I have some control over I tend to be fussy when it comes to risk. In my view why take a punt on a GCL when there are heaps of strongly trending stocks with great profit potential from companies with impeccable financials. In saying this it doesn't follow that lowering risk means low returns, as many of the the solid companies have strong growth potential because they usually show strong earnings growth, return on assets and equity, and low debt which is mostly reflected in above average price growth.For me it does not make sense to punt on something like GCL when there are a couple of dozen solid stocks to choose from. The current Alan Hull list has 34 long stocks, all of which have been filtered for strong fundamentals. I also funnel them through Stockdoctor anyway. Finally I am not saying that GCL wont turn out to be spectacular success, it may, but there are plenty of succulent stocks out there amongst the top notch companies and that is where I prefer to play. Tony_M  muzza Member Username: muzza Post Number: 154 Registered: 06-2003 Rating: N/A Votes: 0 Friday, September 03, 2004 - 08:30 pm:     Tony, Very well put indeed. What interested me (and perhaps I have more appetite for risk than you - yet I do not view myself as a great risk taker) is that a company with shaky fundamentals and challenging cash flow to run like this could only mean that a massive turn around is around the corner, OR, more likely (in this case) they are sitting on some good assets that they cannot unlock the potential of = Takeover in the wings. cheers

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