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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 81
Registered: 08-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Friday, September 17, 2004 - 11:58 pm: |  
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Old link:
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/294699/343161.html
CHX:
1) note the 4 points as shown by the down arrows - they are the resistance level. Four times, the price tried to break out to higher but each time the bulls were overwhelmed by the bears.
Like everything else in this world, you will hear a lot of different opinion on the significance of volume in chart reading, I will say this to you - have an open mind, check it out for yourself, let no others' opinion change what you should or should not think or do; be the master of your own universe - when you can dissociate prejudice, opinion, good and bad advice and begin to assess objectively this very important component in chart pattern, you will naturally come to your own conclusion - whether it works for you or not!
I leave it to you to find your own answer. Mean time I will continue doing this "my way" - only the outcome matters. If I got it right, treat that as luck. If I got it wrong, treat that as bad form. This is as forward and forthright one can get in show and tell. Remember, at the end of the day, you decide how you invest your $$$.
You are your own master and you chart your own course.
2) When you are thinking of support and resistance, and volume, you have to switch over and remind yourself you are not looking at numbers or $ and cents, you are looking at SUPPLY and DEMAND. Repeat after me - SUPPLY AND DEMAND, SUPPLY AND DEMAND....yes, supply and demand. (like the lesson?  )
Look at the 4 points, every time the bulls bought the stock up to 1.05, the bears, the stale bulls with large volume are waiting there, ready to sell you their stock - they want out, and you can have their stocks, they have been waiting for so long to cut loss, to walk away.
Here is a question - what happen after every attempt when the bulls and the bears have a close encounter? Shares exchanged hands! The overhead supply will become smaller and more bulls are holding more stocks. Eventually the demand will overtake supply and when that happens, the price will move higher due to demand when supply is dried up.
Will that happen? We will see. But logical minds should ask this question - somebody is trying hard - they have tried 4 times and yet not giving up - who is more determined to win this time?
APR-MAY-JUN-JULY = the bears have the upper hand
AUG-SEP= the bulls are turning the corner - will their momentum continue?
Think hard! The trend is your friend.
IVC:
1) There was a bit of sell down in last couple of days. As anticipated, some early investors decided to take their profit and run. That was a good buying opportunity but I didn't want to commit more.
2) In a way the stock has "established" a minor short term trading range between 2.85 and 3.00 to accomodate the dividend of 6.5c (I think). What matters is whether the price can maintain its position after the dividend ex-date. Logically, ie, assuming everyone + the fundies are as logical as I am now, 2nd half will be a better half since more people are dying in 2H, according to IVC, one should expect a better result and hence have less reason to sell the stock.
But this is just my assumption. The test will be on the day/week after the dividend ex-date. So if you own this stock, ignore the cheap opinion but keep an eye on the price. That is the only thing that matters!
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 82
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 18, 2004 - 09:26 am: |
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A little rationalisation and I don't mean to preach...
It was getting late last night, so the talk shop continues today:
Does FA work? Or rather, does FA/fundamentals/forecasts help in TA or stock trading?
I think it does. In fact it is quite amusing to find a topic here totally dedicated to prove "Does Ta really work"?". Is this not a TA trading forum? I think there should be a topic totally dedicated to "Does FA really work?". But then I believe no one really like to talk FA because well, it's too much number massaging and too much of a bean counter pastime. On top of that too many people have been burnt by bad FA results in the past. Who can blame them?
But here is a counter thesis - how come the people here can be so accomodating and tolerance to errors/mistakes made in TA works but they have so little tolerance to errors in FA?
What's the most common "accusations" in FA? - bad data, poor forecast, late update, too much analyst rationalising, crooked management report, hidden "bomb" and more. This is not something you don't already know. But again, like all things else, the 80/20 rules come in - if you want to make a point, you pick the 20% exception and make it the rule! (a case of cognitive resonance?)
... in the process, you have lost sight of the good and great companies, ethical and excellent managers that are as "human" and as decent as you who want to make something good out of what they do.
To be fair, to yourself at least - check out the top 50 if not the top 100 companies in the ASX, check out their last half/quarter's management report/forecast and then check out if their numbers/forecast are delivered this quarter/half and then you check that against the stock price. Does the stock price rise if/when the forecast is spot on and the result delivered?
Don't tell me what you have found - you do it for yourself and therefore you should learn to believe and accept your own finding.
Coming back to rationalising "our" little universe. I will describe what I am looking at now and you draw your own conclusion. Some see it as fluffy, some find it amusing, I find it... well, comical but it does make me think a lot harder and occupy my time better. Here goes:
1) IVC's management did tell the world that they expect 2H will be better because base on stats 2H's past performance make up to about 52-54% of the total biz in the last couple of years. Hence unless the demographic of the population has changed within the last 6 months, this bit of info should hold.
2) How reliable is this bit of info and how dependable is IVC's management? They did relatively well and they have declared a decent enough dividend - this is the evidence big investors want to see and matters. Naturally they will expect a bigger dividend by year end - and this is where a little anticipation will help - the unspoken message... if the management fails in their delivery, be prepared to meet their wrath! Fair assumption?
3) What's the short term decision? Take the dividend and watch if anyone bailing out BIG. You can only do it one step at a time at this point. Let's establish a "bail out" point - set that to 2.78/2.79, if the price crosses this point - sell half. But frankly since the entry level is relatively low and hence relatively stress free so you can be more generous... if you firmly believe in the company prospect, give it a little more leeway like set your bail out point to 2.73/2.74 which is the short term minor top and hopefully it provides some support. But should this fail, sell your stocks and consider buying back later if you still believe in this company. (good traders never swim against selling tides, not when big stake holders are flooding the market with stocks and overwhelming the buyers)
CHX:
4) they have begun their delivery. Good info - this implies their operation/execution is ok and without major hiccup.
5) they say they will have the first commercial sale by mid 2005 (i think), ok, we will keep this in mind and monitor if they will deliver.
6) is there any material difference now comparing with April - yes they have progressed quite well.
7) this company is a WIP - work in progress, so you have no choice but to be a project manager and keep track of their deliverables - I don't think they will deliver any profit or dividend just yet. So, you need a little faith here. The positive thing at this point is really - there is real CSG and they have delivered their gas. So if we are speculating, at least we have some good news on our side and promises of better thing to come next year. This provides a bit of "comfort" for the investors to hold on to the stock hoping to see the "last card", and hit the jackpot.
8) Chartwise, going back to support and resistance level - you really don't need to be a rocket scientist to see the only way the stock price can move beyond 1.05 and indeed fill the gap made in April is when there is no more sellers dumping their shares on the bulls. Right?
Assuming the share price climbs all the way back up to 1.30 and then 1.35, you need to rationalise this for yourself - the bulls have come a long way so they are not going to retreat at this point, therefore you should expect the stock price to move much higher than 1.35.
But should the bulls fail to close the gap, you should know that things are not well. Some insiders (those who are informed) will bail out first. You should not hesitate to pull the plug since this is a WIP and there are many things that can go wrong.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 97
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, September 29, 2004 - 03:01 pm: |
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CHX:
Yawn... hummmmmm! It's not going anywhere in a hurry. Watch 95c, if it breaks, get out and then regroup. As expected, the stale bulls are eager to sell it down when the price hits 1.05 and above. Will take a while I guess.
IVC:
Range bound at 2.85-2.93 consolidating nicely since dividend-exed. At this level the price can break either up or down but I am betting it will break UP because if it were to be breaking down, it would have happened right after the ex date. But it has not! (Still remember fear reigns over greed? Stock crashes down a cliff but it always takes a long slow climb to the summit unless it is a take over play like ALH)
~~~~~~~~~
News that is good for your health and helps CHX...
Coal Seam Water May Help Drought Areas in Queensland
BRISBANE, Sept 29 Asia Pulse - Water being pumped out of central Queensland coal deposits may be channelled off to benefit parts of the state badly hit by the drought.
The water is pumped out of the underground coal seams in the Surat Basin on the central Queensland coal fields to release methane gas which is captured for use as an energy source.
Queensland Natural Resources and Mines Minister Stephen Robertson said a study had shown that the water could be used to boost supplies for agricultural and industrial use and after suitable treatment for town water supplies.
He said the water was often rich in salts and minerals.
"While the water is not generally suitable for domestic use there are many industrial and agricultural uses that are currently being explored," Mr Robertson said.
He said if uses could be identified for the water it would make the growing coal seam gas industry more sustainable.
ASIA PULSE
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 153
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 04:31 pm: |
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IVC:
There was some "serious" selling on IVC today - gotta watch it a little closer. Be informed if you have this stock.
CHX:
the recent drop to 94c is not big worry - hope no one sold out on that minor drop because the volume was quite "insignificant".
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 166
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 05:57 pm: |
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IVC
1) note the high volumed day as indicated by the little arrow, the selling has not stopped since then - someone that holds a lot of this stock is taking his/her time to sell out at the same time trying not to knock the price down too much - some kind or "controlled selling"?
2) 2.77 is the lower range - you may want to bail if the price drops through this level, give it another two points say 2.75 before you bail (now that everyone is aware of this, you may consider bailing out at 2.78 or 2.73 so that you won't be "outsmart" by others; and then after saying all these, it will be free for all - do what you please )
3) if the price breaks 2.95, that is a very strong buy signal - if you are keen consider some - just a suggestion. It's your decision at the end still.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 167
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 06:03 pm: |
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CHX
1) Yawn... this is how I'd describe this stock movement - wishy washy dilly dally willy nilly...
2) anyway you can see the little progress it makes, base on this chart it seems 94c is not a bad support.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 175
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 08, 2004 - 11:01 am: |
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Have I said something wrong? I think the stock is being sold down unnecessarily. It's a little overdone and considering the low volume... don't tell me you guys out there really read what I am saying here?
Yooohooo! (Waving...), the second half will be over in two months' time and "many" will... you know, good business thingy.
Hold on if you have not sold yet, or I'll buy more...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 177
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 08, 2004 - 03:06 pm: |
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CHX:
ABN 17 106 565 440
8 October 2004 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PROJECT UPDATE – MORANBAH GAS PROJECT
Commissioning gas is now successfully being delivered to Townsville from the Moranbah Gas Project (“MGP”) at a rate of approximately 9 TJ/day, in line with Enertrade’s current requirements, from 18 wells of the 36 wells completed to date. These deliveries are in line with the current needs of the primary customer, Enertrade. The 6 month commissioning process will continue until 7 February 2005 when full contract sales to Enertrade commence.
To ensure the delivery of gas at full contract volumes of approximately 40 TJ/day from February 2005, CH4 and BHP Billiton as 50:50 Joint Venture Partners in the MGP, have, subject to budget approvals, agreed to accelerate the development of the project wellfield.
While the project is meeting commissioning needs, there are some wells that are taking longer to achieve the needed rates of gas production. A conservative approach is being taken in accelerating wells that were to be drilled next year and providing some in-fill wells to allow advanced gas production to be achieved more quickly.
Commenting today, Louis Rozman, Chief Executive Officer of CH4 Gas Limited said “The development and construction of the MGP in terms of wellfield development and required compression and infrastructure has gone very well. At the end of September 2004, five of our seven compressors are in operation, our gas and water reticulation system is largely complete and 36 wells have been completed and are dewatering and advancing through the gas production process, against a target that we set ourselves earlier in the year of having 23 wells at this stage of development by this time. This has been a remarkably successful effort by all of our staff and contractors. The company has also been involved in discussions regarding additional supplies to the Townsville market, and wants to ensure that it has the maximum potential capacity available to supply that market.”
The impact of this decision to accelerate field development for CH4 is that approximately $2.0 million of expenditure previously planned for the quarter ending September 2005 is being brought forward into the June 2005 financial year, and approximately $3.0 million of additional expenditure is being incurred to add additional field capacity. Funding from CH4’s recently completed Project Financing Facility with RMB Resources Limited will be utilised to assist with these additional capital expenditure needs.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 192
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 02:22 pm: |
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Taking another look at IVC and CHX...
IVC Daily
1) in the last month or so, the bulls and the bears have gone through a bit of rationalisation with regard to their holding and in a way their "conflicting views" have given rise to a downward sloping channel - with the bears insisting on selling at the upper range while the bulls buying at the lower level. From the "slope" one can gather that the bears had been winning the conflict as reflected by the slope.
But the bulls seemed to have regrouped yesterday and pushed back well above the channel. The fight back was slightly less than ideal though because it was not accompanied by a strong volume which implies there was a lack of number. Today, the weakness is revealed by the small retreat as shown by the red candle (bear in mind though it is not an eod candle).
As long as the pull back does not fall through the upper channel, there is a good chance that the stock price may move higher. Using the channel height as a measurement, we are looking at a target "roughly" at 3.10.
CHX Daily
2) Likewise CHX has formed a channel which in this case there is a "bullish" bias with the channel sloping upward implying the bulls are quite happy and willing to take over the shares from the bears. As long as there is no breaking down of the lower channel, we can assume the "broad trend" will be up, with the "conflicting selling/buying" done within the channel.
In this case, we are looking at 1.07 as a first target and if the bulls are well in control, we might even be looking at 1.10 and above which could mean the bulls are attempting to close the gap made in the 1.10-1.22 region immediately after CHX's IPO.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 307
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 07, 2004 - 10:59 am: |
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IVC Daily
CHX:
.... zzzzzZZZZZZZ, wake me up when "they" begin to either dump this stock or buy this stock.... yawn...snoooze...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - 06:11 pm: |
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Hi HC
New to forum and enjoy your work.
IVC is looking a little pale and cold.
Do you have a view on this one.
I have the feeling i should have exited around the 3.05 area?
mm
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 384
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 17, 2004 - 07:07 pm: |
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