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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 102
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 30, 2004 - 08:43 am: |  
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ANE - Auspine, a Chart of Pain.
1) lesson 1 - pay attention when a stock spikes down in a big way
2) lesson 2 - pay attention when the spike touches some important MA's and not rebouncing off it
3) lesson 3 - pay attention when the spike "holds" at eod
4) lesson 4 - find out if you can immediately of what causes the spike down
5) lesson 5 - put your lesson to practice - cutloss!
6) lesson 6 - too late now, chances are it will drop further today...(bad things come in three?) - it has more to do with investor thinking than old wife's tale - many were truly spooked and "lost hope" after yesterday's further sell off. Now panic sets in.
7) lesson 7 - what to do if you are caught? Hold your nerves - hopefully, I mean "hopefully" the price holds or it finds some kind of support somewhere by today or in the next few days. Wait for a bounce and get out!
8) note the volume! It's not that significant so there should be a good chance for rebounce UNLESS the selling picks up today.
9) I could be totally and completely wrong because I am a fool trying to "predict" the move.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 1323
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 30, 2004 - 09:43 am: |
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HC
Maybe Lesson 1 should read: when a stock goes ex-div, watch it closely.
Regards
Colin
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 105
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 30, 2004 - 10:15 am: |
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Colin,
Thanks. Didn't really check what caused that. My mistake.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 106
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, September 30, 2004 - 10:29 am: |
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Let me rephrase Lesson 1: when a stock goes ex-div, watch it closely, pay attention when its price spikes down more than it should (or in a big way). Check and verify your data/fact before coming to any conclusion.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 110
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 01, 2004 - 09:53 am: |
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A follow-up to the case study...
ANE Daily
1) the price has been adjusted for the distribution
2) note the fibo retracement - about 50%; keep this in mind - Edwards and Magee said in thier book (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0814406807/qid=1096587168/sr=1-3/ref=sr_1_3/104-4631436-1017561?v=glance&s=books), most stock will either retrace or react at around 45-50%, not a hard and fast rule but nice to clutch on when you have nothing for reference. They said a lot more things too but...
3) what is the next move? Ask yourself, if you hold this stock what would you do? That, probably will be the other 2001 stock holders are thinking of too - you might want to "out think" them a little.
My bet for today is "down" or sell because what is ahead is bad news or at least no good news. So without something to look forward to, fatigue will set in sooner or later. (This is just my thought, could be wrong)
4) Also it is worthwhile to consider "who" were the sellers early on - my guess is these are the "insiders" - people who have access to company information and people who hold stocks in the company. You can never outthink, outwit these people, and it is very hard to really tell if the sell off a "coincident" - what are you gonna do when face with such situation?
As the stock market reaches higher ground, more and more such occurence will happen, just mark my word. As a stock price moves higher, the activity will ease off at first due to "controlled distribution" but eventually it will be taken over by high and active volatility. Keep your eyes open.
5) here is another question - ANE was a "beautiful" sweet trending stock before the plunge, at this juncture, you as a chart traders or a TA guru, do you still consider this stock your dream stock? If there is no FA or TA reasons to hold on to this stock, there is only a single course of action - SELL!
6) lastly, can we assume if this can happen to ANE, it can happen to other "Strong" TRENDING stock as well? Still remember my discussion on CTX and other trending stocks? Raise your "fear factor"!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 111
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 01, 2004 - 10:48 am: |
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this just crossed me mind coz the chart looks a little similar...
HSP, HealthScope
1) see how long it takes HSP to recover after the sold off as a result of their "poor guidance";
2) after 50%, next will be 61.8% (inverse of golden ratio?), but I'd rather look at the resistance at around 3.76-3.77, if it can break higher, I think it is back in trend;
3) some potential positive development in this sector and this stock is IF Labor wins this election because Latham is promising free hospital care to people who are above 75;
4) is it logical and fashionable to expect more selling such as this as "expectation" of the analysts are raised higher with bigger better higher profit forecast, etc?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 16
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 12, 2005 - 10:50 pm: |
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Hi HC
Trying to learn a little from your musings and dragging this up could be just chewing the cud. 
HSP has taken over GGL.
History may not be relevent now as sometimes takeovers break the back of a company for a while.
Demergers like BSL and RIN seem to work much better?
The big fall on the chart looks bad but over the longer term (3 years)this company has been a volatile stock and the large move would possibly be expected at some stage.
The question is would the break of the longterm trend line in Dec 17th have triggered a sell?
Similarly, the move in ANE was not unusual for this share from historical chart movements.(3yr chart but more volatile over longer periods)
All comes down to timeframe i guess and harry hindsight always has an answer.
mm
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 661
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 08:08 am: |
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MS,
After reading your message and charts, I don't quite get what you are trying to say. Anyway to make it a useful exchange I would write down what's in my mind:
1) with such wide channel I'd prefer trading within the channel than a plain long hold (and over 3 years?)
2) question: did you see the sell signal before the plunge for both stocks? They were quite "visible". If you have not, use your hindsight to locate them and then try with other stocks - this is one way I learn from history.
3) question: with GGL takeover, is HSP still volatile as its recent past? How much improvement to its bottom line can I expect from this acquisition? (I have a position in HSP at 3.57, the second bite of the cherry)
4) On ANE, will it ever breach 4.14?
5) Base on your two 3-year channels - check back and ask when was the last time both stocks show such extensive period of sideway movement within the channel? Will a channel ever end?
6) There is an implicit assumption in your view - that is after three year up trend, both stocks will continue their uptrend. The bigger picture view would be the market will continue its uptrend, question: with or without any intermediate correction? If yes what do you expect both stock do? If not, how long will they take to reach the upper channel? And the opportunity elsewhere?
Cheers.
ps: I am responding with a short term view of the market, just in case.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 17
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 12:47 pm: |
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Hi HC
Not much time but all i can see is a top formation on the equivolume charts.
If the trend up was to continue would be looking for a close half way plus on the big up candle and less volume on the down candles?
Possibly exit on the open second day after the swamping up candle? or close the day after?
Short term would have to recognise this i guess?
Cannot see anything on RSI and Macd to give the warning.
and
Will look further tonight.
Any hints?
mm
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 663
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 02:15 pm: |
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MS,
I didn't watch ANE, so can't help. Sorry.
HSP
1) Attached is the combo chart of HSP daily and weekly.
2) On daily, note all the indicators are +ve, and if you like trend, the price has moved above the long term MAs.
3) On weekly, note the Twiggs Money Flow, the last time it crosses up the "zero" line, the price went up for quite a while. This time?
4) What I found most positive is the latest weekly volume todate has surpassed the volume back when the stock was sold down - I reckon this time the big buyers are looking at HSP with GGL in their mind.
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 18
Registered: 10-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 11:33 pm: |
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HC
Looking for the trigger to trade these large ranging channels.
I like the macd cross and rsi but they would not have saved me with HSP or ANE from the falls you posted at the start of the thread.
The eqiv charts i posted above are for the day before the falls.ANE went xdiv so will forget that one and say only that the stop loss should be the "normal percent" below the div plus franking credit.
As for HSP i think the entry at $3.57 is spot on.
Can i ask what your stop would have been after entry.
Assume $3.50 which is the recent low and happens to be 2%?
Costs 2% to find out if the entry is right or wrong ?
Found some red dots which i haven't taken a lot of interest in previously but they are impressive and seem to avoid the big falls in the channel.
Could it be this simple ?
Nah, i'm dreaming right!
mm
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 664
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 14, 2005 - 08:09 am: |
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MS,
I didn't want to pick bottom (there were two, sort of double bottom) hence I waited until 3.57 to play it safe. For stop loss I normally take a couple of points below the previous low, ie, in this case is around 3.45-3.48 depending on intraday movement.
Instead of relying on indicators (which mostly are built on past data and tend to trend follow, try candle reading). For HSP, the top on 5/8 and 29/11 were quite distinctive. Couple with intraday reading, they provide quite a few hints to get out. (That is, provided you are watching the stock)
I will be lying to you that I can get it right all the time. There is an element of luck involves in most cases. A simple but useful way to read candle is to keep an eye on star, doji, dark cloud cover, etc and then glance back to past instances and draw your own conclusion.
In HSP, after the top (with substantial gain) is reached, there are usually one to two days of red candles that provide the hint you need. Try this and see if it works for you.
With regard to the current upward move, the question you have to ask is "has the move been substantial enough that would induce big player to take profit?"
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 665
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, January 14, 2005 - 08:22 am: |
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