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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 147
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 10:08 am: |  
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AMC Daily
1) Use to like AMC because of the nicely formed double bottom, but not anymore;
2) the DB has a breakout but failed due to severe selling from the stale bull. Fundamentally the stock was also partially affected by the poor sales outlook as reported by Colgate/Palmoliv not too long ago (they are AMC's major clients);
3) the way forward is going to be hard and long, which really does not warrant any more close scrutiny - note the price has dropped below the long term MA;
4) what to do next? a) if it drops back to around 6.60 buy it; b) consider going long ONLY if it breaks back up above the long term MA or clear the peak at around 7.50;
5) I will not be watching this one for a while because there isn't much appealing to me at the moment. Yes, on second thought, I can try shorting this one but then I don't like shorts when the general trend is up, so it's still a pass for moi...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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colin_twiggs
Member
Username: colin_twiggs
Post Number: 1347
Registered: 09-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 11:01 am: |
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Another case of weakness after the stock goes ex dividend?
Regards
Colin
(Message edited by colin_twiggs on October 06, 2004)
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 149
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 12:12 pm: |
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Colin,
Thanks again for the correction. My data supplier does not adjust for any distribution, quite annoying really. (Seriously if not because I am so "used" to my old software, I'd switch over to IC. I'd say IC is an extremely good deal to all the newbies... now this is free SPRUIKING for ya!  )
Yes, it seems the stock holders are not too keen to hold their shares after the dividend pay out. (there's no loyalty in this group at all?)
And after the adjustment I am still holding fast - AMC is still a sore butt.
1) the price has moved below 200 sma even after adjustment;
2) there is a huge gap to fill with the extremely high volume associated with the selling, I think it is going to be hard work;
3) no matter how hard I try, using tops at Oct, Dec '03, Jan and Mar'04, the trend line is still down, so at a minimum AMC has to a) clear its down trend; b) clear its recent peak at 7.5; c) close the gap to be considered safe for the home run.
Cheers and have a good day
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 344
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 12, 2004 - 08:48 pm: |
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AMC Daily
1) hindsight is a great teacher - back in Oct, I told myself when AMC drops back to its previous low @ around 6.60, it would be a buy because I had strong confidence then that the bottom would hold. There lies my problem - I love "bottom" too much and missed the top - the top was showing some kind of "rectangle" especially when the bottom bounced off at 6.90 (pt.4) making a nice upward tilted rectangle as shown by the combination of pts 3 and 4;
2) anyway, enough of being a hindsight hero; let's look forward, AMC has many pluses going for it:
2.1) it has broken it's down trend;
2.2) it has moved above the long term MA;
2.3) it has cleared 7.5;
2.4) it has cleared two big hurdles as shown by pt.1,2; two high volume days with many stale bulls; now they have turned support(ers);
2.5) if the "thesis" of a sloping rectangle as shown by points 3 and 4 holds, the price is now sitting right on the line, but because it is upward tilting with 7.5 serving as a good support, I am more inclined to assume the price will consolidate at the current level before bouncing off the upper channel and move higher. Using the height of the rectangle as measurement, the target would be about 8.40;
2.6) however, whilst AMC is looking bullish, be mindful of the fact that the bulls have come a long way (from 6.90 all the way to 7.80) within a relatively short time, it pays to watch a) if the price would fall back below the upper channel line in the next few days; b) if the price would break the 7.50 support; if both tests fail, there is a good chance that AMC may yet make another trip back to its lower channel;
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 498
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 07, 2004 - 07:59 am: |
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the hidden danger... the dissent speaks volume!
The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 64-57
Amcor CEO Russell Jones is battling a revolt by some of its executives. Five topmanagers from its Australian cardboard-box operations have allegedly beenworking on a competing business, the Australasian Manufacturing ConsultingGroup, and appropriating internal information on suppliers, customers andpricing. Jones has taken the matter to the Federal Court of Australia to stopthem using the information and to recover computer devices and files from them
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 891
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 07, 2004 - 06:55 pm: |
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HC,
You are right again on this one.What is your next bet, count me in for a few dollars.
Cheers,
PL
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 535
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 06:12 pm: |
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AMC Daily
1) I admire brave people, but this is not the time to be brave or greedy... surely it doesn't hurt to wait for the dust to settle?
2) look at the volume in the last two sessions - same volume but in terms of value - miles apart! Gotta say the bears are still in control
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 567
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, December 11, 2004 - 02:44 pm: |
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AMC Daily
1) by changing the data time frame into 2-day period, the chart shows the last 2 sessions formed a "harami cross" which according to Steve Nison, is an important bottom reversal signal - I don't buy it (well may be because it is not on a daily basis). I believe AMC will obey what the MACD is signaling, that is, it is going down.
With the potentially damaging trade cartel case looming large in the background, it is hard to feel optimistic about AMC within the short to medium outlook.
(Just think what/how their 200 largest customers feel? they had been taken for suckers for so long... I am sure they will demand some kind of compensation, if not, they will be very sceptical of the price they pay for future orders - what will this do to the bottomline of AMC?)
AMC Weekly
2) if I am going to draw a long bow, this is where I think AMC's stock price will go to - at around 5.50-5.80, with 5.44 as the watermark, ie, if this price goes, I don't want to look at it for a while.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 619
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 17, 2004 - 05:45 pm: |
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AMC Daily
1) the only thing that strikes me with AMC's "recovery" is how its charge stopped smack at the resistance level... it works almost like a "brake"!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1112
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 11:01 am: |
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Someone who has quite a large stake in AMC is taking the stock to the cleaner this morning... although the volume so far is still relatively small, this should be seen as a caution to those who are holding this stock - "something" could be happening that you don't know yet. There's currently a share buy-back scheme on going, let's see what the company will do next.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 1118
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 08:27 am: |
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Here's a possible explanation...
AMC - AMCOR LTD - down 26 cents or 3.6 per cent to $6.95
Shares in global packager Amcor were heavily sold yesterday after a rival packager in the United States blamed a sharp drop in profits on the higher cost of raw materials.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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