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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 152
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 04:28 pm: |  
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The oil and gas sector is getting really hot, Hot, HOT!
And I am not kidding.
STO has recovered all its recent loss and will be testing its all time high soon. If this stock breaks 7.50, I think it is worth a punt.
OSH - I got really frustrated with this for a while - went in at 1.32 and came out even at about 1.35 or somewhere there coz didn't like its politics. This afternoon there was a piece of news on FEED deal plus its presentation to funds/big investors, the stock just shot up 16 cents (I think) from 1.50 to 1.66. Quite breathless and it didn't wait for anyone.
To cut it short, I jumped in at 1.58 just for a ride.I think the funds have bought the Boss' story and are eating from his hands. Volume @ about 21.5 mil with plenty of block trades. Worth watching. (I will furnish a chart later on)
ARQ - I like the chart of this baby oil and gas play. If you are the type that like to crawl in the bargain basement and second hand goods stores - this one is for you. Yes, see you there, I am already "in".
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 169
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 06:30 pm: |
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STO
1) well after breaking 7.50, it never looks back - at 7.84, that is a gain of 34c;
2) it's gapped up and its such a dominant candle, I think it may have enough momentum to move higher... except the volume is not that "bullish", its best to wait out the opening 15 minutes;
3) it's really nice to know substantial sellers have exited back in August, so there will be less to worry moving forward.
OSH
1) Bullish! It seems some analyst has set a target of 2.00 for this stock.
ARQ
1) Taking up its bigger brother's pattern with a gap up. Watch the relatively weak volume, expect some profit taking tomorrow.
2) Valuation wise, this one has PE well below sector average, so it should be "cheap" - logically speaking. It may not matter much to TA folks but you try talking to those FA "analysts" and see what they will tell ya...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 229
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 26, 2004 - 01:09 pm: |
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Like most people, I like to talk about "winners" and not "losers", while I continue sweeping my losers under the carpet, I will post the winners for all to see. Forgive this cow's huge ego if you can...
ARQ
1) the above chart is my attempt to show some of the bullish signal/pattern you can "decode" from a chart, some of them can be very powerful allies to have. And don't let others deter you from believing what you can see with your eyes.
2) I think I have shown enough C&H that I don't think I want to repeat that because I can see many more experienced chartists are already "doing it";
3) GAP - is a very strong/powerful/reliable bullish signal, when you see it, jump into it except the 3rd gap. That is, if it gaps up again tomorrow, don't chase it! If you are risk averse, wait for a "gapped rally" settles down and then you buy on dip with proviso that the gap is a continuation one - go check out the details in Colin's useful helpful training stuffs;
4) Pennants are SHORT TERM signal and should not be mixed up with other longer term looking "pennant" because of the market psychology behind such pattern. Good pennants don't normally last more than a few days. Note too the pennant's slope is very important because it provides clues on the exchange between the "profit taking clueless masses" against the smart traders - it's a case of quiet, calculating and control accumulation by these smart traders/insiders etc;
(note the pennant above has been drawn wrongly in that the top line should slope down, the current pattern looks more like a flag. Personally I regard both to be "almost" similar)
OSH
5) OSH is showing a very "clear" flag formation with its flag pole indicating a potential target at around 2.00. A flag formation is a bullish signal because it reflects the very bullish buying that creates the "flag pole";
6) The subsequent "controlled" selling/buying that formed the flag and the subsequent price action that breaks out of the flag pattern shows the bulls are much stronger than the bears and are in charge;
7) Overall, this flag formation is not a particularly strong one partly because of its relatively short flag pole - this probably has to do with the large number of shares OSH has issued (I guess);
8) by looking at these two charts and other oil and gas stocks, I think the conclusion is... man, this sector is THE sector! It pays to say this at the same time - be aware that hot sector can turn cold very quickly once the hype is over. This is particularly true with regard to cyclical stocks - and most commodities are cyclical in nature.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 304
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 07, 2004 - 10:40 am: |
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no chart for ARQ and OSH but these two should not be abandoned just yet because whilst the oil price has been dropping, I don't think the energy need has ceased - not when China and India are gearing up to march their economies into the "big league" - the demand for new cars, new trucks, electricity to drive new plants, new homes, etc are simply too great to be ignored.
Btw, you are looking at 2.2 billions people and are counting... with this masses of people, you and I need to think "paradigm shift" to make sense of the whole thing...
Hang in there but don't blame me!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 328
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 09, 2004 - 01:06 pm: |
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ARQ:
News Release
Tuesday 9 November 2004
JINGEMIA OIL FIELD (VOY 11%) REACHES OIL PRODUCTION OF 3,900 BOPD
Operator, Origin Energy has advised that oil production for the Jingemia oil field has reached rates up to 3,919 bopd, representing approximately 431 bopd net to Voyager.
Although some 2 months behind schedule, oil production rates are now at budgeted levels and the production performance from the producing wells is in line with expectations.
Voyager believes there is very good potential to add additional wells to increase proved reserves and oil production rates. The joint venture has agreed that the Jingemia-5 well will be drilled in March 2005 immediately after data from the impending Denison 3D seismic survey is interpreted. Final approvals for this survey are close to being obtained and this should allow recording work to commence in December.
During October Jingemia oil sales averaged A$62 per barrel and Voyager’s production revenue was A$0.63 million from an average 328 bopd.
*** btw, the shares of the Jingemia oil are as follow:
Participants in EP 413/L14 are:
Origin Energy Developments Pty Limited (Operator) 49.189%
ARC Energy Limited 33.141% = about 1300 bopd = 1300x30x12=468,000 barrel of oil = 468,000x$60 = $28 millions; @A$50 per barrel of oil, the revenue = A$23.4 mil
Voyager (PB) Limited 11.000%
Victoria Petroleum Offshore Pty Ltd 5.000%
Norwest Energy 1.278%
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Limited 0.250%
J Geary 0.142%
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 332
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 09, 2004 - 02:49 pm: |
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here is a bit of salvaging work on oil...
Goodyear speaks... you better listen
BHP Billiton CEO Chip Goodyear said the oil price was likely to remain volatile and should rise in the short term during the northern hemisphere winter.
"(The oil price) is going to keep moving up and down, you just don't know which is going to happen first," Mr Goodyear said.
"It's tough to see it going down and in the northern hemisphere winter, we're now probably starting to get out of that in a shipping point of view and a refining point of view."
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 397
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 02:04 pm: |
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ARQ Daily
1) if I remember it right the price was dragged down in a last minute sold off of about 2800 shares at 1.29 possibly by a small investor, hence I would seriously question the "dark cloud cover" here;
2) instead pay attention to the breaking out of the new base/triangle/db on the 25/10 with high volume - this possibly indicates there is a change in market sentiment in this stock, need to hold this out a little longer to see what is causing it...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 410
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 29, 2004 - 11:47 am: |
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ASX RELEASE
Release Date: 29 November 2004
To: Australian Stock Exchange Ltd No of Pages: 1
From: Eric Streitberg
Re: Dongara 31 flows at an estimated 7 million cubic feet per day
ARC Energy Limited advises that an initial cleanup flow of the Arranoo reservoir has flowed gas at estimated rates of 7 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd). This initial cleanup flow was undertaken without a separator, and consequently, flow rates are unable to be precisely determined. However, the well was flowed at varying pressures and rates with the calculated rate on a 40/64 inch choke being 7 mmcfd with a well head pressure of approximately 700 psi. The well was still unloading some fluid at the completion of the flow period. The Arranoo reservoir is located at approximately 1,500 metres depth between the upper and lower Kockatea shale above the Dongara reservoir and the pool extends across the central part of the Dongara gas field.
This is an extremely encouraging result and the well will now be connected to the nearby Dongara 24 flowline and produced to the Dongara gas processing plant for a test period to acquire reservoir and production data. It is expected to take approximately two weeks for the test to commence. It is then intended to produce the well in conjunction with the other producing Dongara Field wells at a level that will ensure supply for ARC’s Perth customers. Long term flow rates are required to be able to accurately determine the potential reserves of the Arranoo pool accessed by Dongara 31.
This result is particularly important for ARC in that the company has 100% of the production in contrast to the other recent gas discoveries where ARC is a 50% partner. It is also particularly pleasing in that it represents another significant advance in ARC’s drilling capabilities with the reservoir being drilled at an angle of 60 degrees and a lateral being completed off the main well bore to give a four fold increase in exposure to the reservoir compared to the previous vertical wells drilled in the reservoir. This technique further increases ARC’s ability to optimise production and recovery of reserves. It is understood to be the first time that multiple reservoir well bores have been completed from a single well in onshore Western Australia.
There is also potential for more wells to be drilled to access additional reserves of both gas and oil in the Arranoo pool. Century Rig 11 is now drilling the Eremia 3 appraisal well allowing the potential for drilling a further Arranoo well to be considered.
Yours faithfully
ERIC STREITBERG
Managing Director
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 414
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 29, 2004 - 03:42 pm: |
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ARQ Daily
1) as I was saying there was a change in investor sentiment... in this case "they" seem to have knowledge of the above announcement in advance - of course I am not accusing them of any foul play because I don't have any basis or evidence to support my view, right?
The stock went up 9c today - two days ago it was trading at 1.24, a rise of about 11% in three days.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 423
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 03:18 pm: |
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The good news...
Oil prices hovers near 50 dollars
... and the same good news makes better read...
Oil Up on Winter Worries, Norway Outage
... but the oil stocks are down, why?
1) they have gone up too much "relatively" (not really if you trace back to the not too distance past; what does it tell ya?);
2) there is a news on Saudi increasing oil output by 37% - this one, I think did the oil stocks in;
3) ... but then, the bet is still on because "EVERYONE" (read the speculators) is just waiting around the corner ready to pounce the moment they hear there is a blizzard somewhere... just you wait - I can even anticipate the kind of "news" that will make the headline:
3.1) Russian oil production halt due to weird storm where fish and reindeers were falling with hail stones as big as water melon... (them lucky Rusky!)
3.2) 7-days of snow storm in Norway kept all Norwegians in door as a result the oil production was down 10% but the birth rate increases by 20%... (Whoa! Them horny Norwegians!)
3.3) you get the idea?...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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maligas
Member
Username: maligas
Post Number: 106
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 03:57 pm: |
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Love your work HC 
Keep it up !
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 424
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 04:17 pm: |
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MG,
Thanks. You know you're welcome to share your market view with us anytime, right?
Cheers.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 506
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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