Archive through October 12, 2004

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holycow

Member

Post Number: 124
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 1


Monday, October 04, 2004 - 10:53 am:

this has been in my mind since the day I bought my first stock. So after all these while I think I am going to put words to it and see if it makes sense. Inputs are welcome and hopefully we can all get rich as a result of our concerted effort.

My Ideal stock example: CSL

It's characteristics are:

1) It has to be a world beater - that is, the company sells its product to the world, hence it has to have some kind of dominant product leadership in the world;

2) It has to have a unique product either through its process, patent or sources that makes competition hard to enter; or at least with very high capital cost;

3) It has to have a good sound management team with good/great corporate governance and transparency - this can be inferred from the management/remuneration/annual report somewhat;

4) It has to have a set of good corporate culture where excellence is a way of life, and its employees are looked after, feel proud and identify with the company;

5) It has to have a good and realistic corporate vision (with good leadership to drive the company towards that vision)

6) There could be more but I like to get down to candidate selection.

Of all the sectors, I believe the Biotech/IT has the most potential to meet the above criteria. I have been looking at Chemeq, this company seems to have quite a few things going for it in terms of intellectual property, patents, and market appeal...

BUT,BUT, BUT ... it has one of the worst corporate leadership I have seen for a while. If they can kick the current management out and replace it with someone or a team of more professional managers who place share holders' interest first , I think this company may have a future.

But right now, I think it is a DOG!

Instead we can look at its minor competitor IMU. I am still digging, but if you know anything of interest, please help me - make me into a cashcow instead of a sacred one; in return, I promise I will bestow good fortune, beautiful women, trip around the world, holiday in the most exotic island paradise, and yes, good old yummy great Australian beef money can buy - just for you - for breakfast, lunch and dinner!

This is an offer that will not be repeated, one that you simple can't refuse! So resistance is futile, come on board...you hear?

:-)

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 150
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 01:51 pm:

Hey,

Thanks for that 5 stars! :-)

I thought this post is the most useful of all my yaks and brags, but surprisingly it does not stir any interest...

Anyway, CMQ has a big jump today with an announcement on patent approval and some minor distribution deal blah blah blah... just like to remind everyone that its problem is not in getting patent approvals - its problem is in poor management, in this case, the failure of the manager to properly execute, or project manage the large amount of funds injected into the company to move it into its production phase.

If I have to make a judgement, I would attribute the problem squarely on the shoulder of the CEO whom, in my opinion being a Dr or scientist is not really the right person to run the business at this moment. The proper and ideal role he should be playing at this phase of the company life cycle is to be the R&D director or some thing in a similar role. He should remove himself from the daily operation/management and if he still has enough senses and not overwhelmed by all the money he has been making, he should start immediately looking for a suitable professional manager to replace him.

IF(if!) he can be THIS selfless and set the above scenario into motion, I believe CMQ is a BUY! I would be expecting something not unlike CSL or COH; but until then, CMQ will still be a DOG(woof! woof!).

If you are keen in this company, you should at least wait for further development, ie, until the company moves into its production phase and starts generating some REAL cashflow... anything else at this point are nothing but PR exercise, intellectual "w**king" (according to Kerry Packer) and cash burning... and more cash injection and then more cash burning, etc...

Yours truly,

A CMQ hater.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 390
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 02:12 pm:

Rederob[or ready2rob]is your sparring partner on this one,hc
that is if its the Vet drug one.With all the info/opinion/viewpoints you so admirably present,can i ask that some mind memory joltings be included for us "old folks"?i did note your first post had the name not just the code,so thanks for that.
did you read insolvencies are up in todays paper?When i'm able i'll get back to you on Baycorp vs Knights.
really have a good day,
your "pal",
jr
ps nix it was me on d'5stars!

holycow

Member

Post Number: 151
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 06, 2004 - 05:11 pm:

Dr.D,

Thanks for the 5 stars - has that got to do with the "lone star" you gave me last time? Now, don't tell me you feel guilty because I am so "nice and generous" to you? Huh?

Btw, I like this nick better than dogalog, so I shall use it from now on.

Much as I bagged CMQ like there is no tomorrow, fact remains it went up $1.03 today. That is a whopping 56% rise which can really buy me a lot of hays for rainy days. If the market knows something that I don't it will be "they" believe the "distribution" is for real this time - which naturally changes my stance since I am a "lover" and not a "hater".

So, let's assume it's good news from now on and monitor this chameleon and see if it will change its colour sometimes into the future.

On KIA, tell me what do I have to do to change you view in this one?

Cheers and have a good day :-)

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 391
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 10:31 am:

I did a bit of a search trying to find your mention of Rocky,Holy Cow.I couldn't find it ,yet i would have bet it was here yesterday.Thank heavens,i am Finally losing my mind's power of recall!!
Anyway,rocky was an interesting IC case study,hey.This guy arrives with a technique for Entry that he admits to using chiefly to trade CBA,i assume he's probably investing 20/50 grand a throw.
Next thing his technique is "transferred"to buying 3 cent stocks with 'confidence'"It's a Rocky"the punters proclaim.Some fresh meat pops up all agog"der whats a Rocky?"An avalanche of links are provided.Poor self-effacing rocky posts again,50 posts follow of syncophancy and requests again[and again]for clarifications,comments,reassurance that some 20 mil mark cap stock is TRULY a ROCKY.
Holy Cow,why don't Rocky post no more?
he should come here where all credibility is shot,don't you reckon?or is he one of them alias posters i've heard about?
i really truly hope he is not[nix]Wombat.For him to be soooo turned off would be a tragedy.
Anyhow that's my "Happy"thought for the day.

regards,jr aka Mr[nix Dr]D[i am more surgical HC]

holycow

Member

Post Number: 159
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 10:58 am:

Dr.D,

Good morning. Have I mentioned Rocky? Anyway, I am aware of Rocky's technique (the Blind Fredie approach?) if I understand you right. Many probably will laugh at me but I find his technique sound and has a "psychological" justification in that. I like to see his BF as a very short term Cup and Handle which has got to do with our human thinking of "missed the first one, but no way I will miss the second" plus a little of "trader's remorse" - it makes a lot of sense if you spend time to think enough of it.

I have spent a little time checking out Knight, frankly I got a little "concerned" - one of their partners/director is a gentleman called Bill O'Chee - do you know him?

This guy has quite a reputation and has appeared on TV quite a few times. Check him out.

Also I notice they have an Indian MD (in India!?) - can't help to have a feeling that this might be an Indian sweat shop, ie, they get their cheap skilled labour over there to work out the details - this is my wild guess though.

Being a bias person that I am, if I don't understand something I will tend to take a cautious stance. In many occasions this saves my life. So I think I will leave KIA alone for the time being. Hope you won't find my response repugnant. :-)

Cheers and HAVE A GOOD DAY!

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 393
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 11:46 am:

Bill o'Chee!!!!that is very bad news ,HC.i didn't know that.I will definitely Ponder that,He's one of THEM ya know cow,one of them NATIONALS/Country[misspelt]Types of Party.
Suppose he'd be a good front/contact in their Rural offices,give an Aura of respectability to cow cockies and the like maybe[as long as they weren't hanging out their tongues on Pauline that is]still i do have ethics to consider and Bill aint a Feature good point,i agree.
India is to bring western accountancy standards to the sub-continent,HC.Of course,you are fully aware that India is a Dynamo like China.Did you know there are more people in India/Pakistan combined than China?The Indians/Pakis are just as tuned to doing the business as well as collecting Western $$$.KIA is helping them out,HC,isn't that noble?

must go ,keep up your excellent work,regards,jr
ps rocky was suppose to be in Come On Down thread.

holycow

Member

Post Number: 160
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 11:51 am:

I think my comment is a little unfair to Bill O'Chee. May I restate that I don't insinuate anything negative at all? In fact if I remember him right - he is a whiz kid with finance at a very young age and he was elected to the senate as the youngest senator ever... all these can't be bad to have him as a partner/director of the company. Right?

What I don't feel comfortable with Knight is I have browsed through their web site for quite a while but got away with very little in depth info on their individual expertise and their past insolvency cases. May be it's just me?

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 394
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 12:50 pm:

You're easy to Skittish,hey H.C.but i agree bill O aint so bad,at least he's working in an industry he's trained for.
I don't know that Insolvency has records for web sites that could be classified as Greatest Hits or the like.
Do you think "We cleaned up SGW"would reassure you?Its turnover/thruput done,on to the next.Only as good as your next insolvent not your last.
If character references were important in stock picking,why isn't all your money in PBL,HC?i apologise too swarmy than smart,that last comment.

Looking forward to a Future long debate with you soon HC.
I am truly disappointed that your work is not answered,commented on,by the rest of the forum.
Be reassured HC,you are not alone.
regards,jr

holycow

Member

Post Number: 163
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 05:59 pm:

Dr.D,

Insolvency is a highly skilled "trade" - you have to know what to look for in areas where "people" hide their dirty linens or stash their gold. Listing the past jobs give potential clients a level of confidence that you are not a greenhorn. Like everything else, experience counts - would you pay the same rate to a trainee hairstylist as you would to his/her master?

Not being an expert in this area, I think (ie, assuming)the objective of an insolvency assignment most time ends in either a revival or closing down of the insolvent company - sometimes you could be looking at big $$$ and extended court cases - hence justifying those goons in the big accounting firms like Pricewaterhousecooper, DelloiteT's big consulting fees and big fat profit margin. (I don't think Knight is in their league though.)

Btw, whoinntheirrightmindwouldwanttonametheircompanyinsuchmanner... wherethenamegoesonandonandonasifeveryonehastimetoreadthrougheveryletter! (if you have problem reading what I am saying... well I can provide translation later on, having problem chewing and talking at the same time...)

As usual, if they demand a day rate of say $5,000 a day, would you prefer someone who knows what he is talking or some one like me? Who only knows how to lie on haystack and chew grass and let out plenty of hot air? :-)

Case closed?

Cheers.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

holycow

Member

Post Number: 172
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 08, 2004 - 10:26 am:

See what I mean?... I think this is outright "manipulation", releasing the news with a massive push in stock price. I think the share holders should really kick that old turkey out from his office...

Chemeq admits sitting on US patent release

Date 8/10/2004
Author Michael Weir
Source The West Australian -- Page: 43

Australian biotechnology group Chemeq has defended its decision to delay an announcement about the approval of a US patent for its veterinary drug. The company said that it had received word about its successful application for a US patent more than a week before it released the news on 6 October 2004. Chemeq said that it had been advised about the patent on 28 September, but did not release the news immediately as it did not believe it to be "price sensitive information". The group said that the market was aware that the US patent was pending. Chemeq stock closed down $A0.01 at $A3.30 on 7 October.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog

Member

Post Number: 397
Registered: 03-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 08, 2004 - 10:48 am:

OLD TURKEY??there is a no ageism rule here.
Holy Cow,you'll start generational warfare.The X,Y ers will rise beyond complacency if you alert them to the old,HC.Instead of breaking their career path to go backpacking,they may stick around paying off their HECS and get resentful.
Even though your analysis of d'Turkey may have prevented you from buying this vet company,that's your problem for not listening to rederob or discussing it with him at least.Just because he's running "slow"in the main board game,don't mean he's a Dill just well maybe old.
Note ready2rob is also gold struck.
If i agree to never mention KIA,will you agree to stop using OLD derogatively?
What do you Con-Sult in?

nix really crotchity of a day'
jr

holycow

Member

Post Number: 173
Registered: 08-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 08, 2004 - 11:20 am:

Haha...

Sorry mate, just shot off my mouth a little too fast - that's how disgusted I felt with people like him. But I agree the "old" word shouldn't have been used. Turkey will suffice.

On discussion with Rederob, I am reading him and I have a feeling he may be reading us, that's good enough. I like this game, it's like kids using a string tying two tin cans at each end and yell on top of our voice...

But seriously at this stage as I have expressed earlier on CMQ has a governance and transparency issue - the management is the BIG ?? here and not the patents nor products nor eventual sales. So it will eventually boil down to a waiting game - when will he go.

And judging from his antics so far, I have a feeling his days are numbered. For bigger guy such as Rupert Murdoch who eventually has to back down and "compromise" on his NCP move, I reckon the CMQ chief will not need an international concerted effort to kick his butt.

Let's just wait.

Well, thanks for that well wishes of "crotchity of a day", I am feeling really fine and in return, and as usual, "have a good day!"

:-)

ps: PBG is a buy today - for me anyway. Queuing now.

HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

dogalog