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     holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 220
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 10:23 am: |  
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http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/22/markets/earningsmatter/index.htm
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The earnings reporting period has reached the mid point, and the results so far have been strong, if not spectacular.
But for a stock market worried about rising oil prices, an economy that recently hit a soft patch and a tight presidential election, strong may not be good enough.
Around 51 percent of the S&P 500 has reported earnings so far. Approximately, 62 percent of the companies have beat estimates, 18 percent have met estimates and 20 percent have missed, according to Thomson/First Call.
**** read sometimes ago a Wallstreet analyst was making a comment when the economy was very positive and the market was just about to decline... he said "when the report on economy is so great, it's the right time to sell...".
That was about nine months ago... now, the economy outlook is looking bleak with high oil price threatening everything from China's growth to heating oil shortfall and the presidential election outcome... it even brought up the perennial talk of DJIA swinging back to the '80's level - I think it is time to buy in the US market. This is contrarian cow talking here... 
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 221
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 11:04 am: |
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http://theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/22/1098316863646.html?oneclick=true
IF OIL HOVERS AT $US55 . . .
· Slows the economy, but transfers wealth from the rest of the world to Australia long term
· Pushes up the Australian dollar
· Makes rate rises less likely
. . . SPIKES TO $US80
· Global recession threatened
· Australia's growth rate slumps
· Domestic spending stalls
· $A under "severe downward pressure"
. . . RETREATS TO $US30
· Australian economic growth edges up towards 4 per cent
· Low petrol bills up boost incomes and consumption
· Industrial shares rally, oil shares fall
· $A strong, global growth improves
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 223
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 24, 2004 - 11:51 am: |
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I'd just gone through my usual weekend scans of all major up/down movements... here are some "observations":
1) there is a feeling of an overall increase in stock volatility - translated - many asx200 stocks are showing relatively higher percentage movements (up or down) - I tend to interpret this to be large stock holders are "getting in/out". In this case I'd like to assume there are more "getting out" (read distribution) than "getting in"; R U feeling lucky?
2) many volume gainers/leaders are the "minors" and "pea sized" stocks as trumpeted here which spells "speculative stocks" are taking over the leadership - question: do you reckon a thousand flies speak louder than a single cow's fart? "Bluuuurrrrpppp!!" Oops! Sorry!
3) if the "majors" are in retreat or in "subdued" mode, where do you reckon the market will go eventually? Up or down or sideway?
4) the finance sector and the banks seem to be leading the market at the moment, but I have read not less than one analyst reports that say their leadership is not sustainable because of their profit margin squeeze, etc. So just analyse this: FACT - the banks are leading, OPINION - they can't lead for long. Draw your own conclusion and trade accordingly;
5) I'd just read Colin's take on ASX200 - agreed But I actually hold this "private" projection - it is more likely to go down and it should show within the next two days! (remember, this is just a "fart" from a "cow"...)
6) Solomon Lew cashed out his 21.7% of Colorado holding @5.90 per piece whilst CDO promptly made a new intraday high at 6.40 - either he is very stupid or the buyer is very stupid. But without knowing the buyer(s), I'd not like to take Soly as stupid because he is much much richer than me. Can someone tell me why he sold out?
7) I don't like what I see in the US market, do you? Btw don't count on the Prez election because if it were to be a driver, it should have been in the "driver seat" weeks/months ago; at this stage - it is more of a driver for uncertainty;
8) a question: what has been the driver for ASX in the last 6 to 19 months? Which sector? And what is happening to these sector now?
9) this one is my "gut feel" and a cow has "7" of them - back in 2000 I went big on a semicon (chip) stock that went from 2 all the way up to 55, the market rumours then was it would hit 60 to 80, I got out at 52 (some) and 45(the rest), but a friend of mine held on for her 80 and has been holding all the way down until it hit 8. I remembered when I "hinted" to her I'd got out at 45, she got into a panic and sold out some but subsequently when the stock rebounded from 45 to 48 and 50, she went ballistic and told me off for scaring her and causing her "taking some loss", and to recover her loss she had wisely bought back some at 48 - and she swore she wouldn't be listening to me again. Ever!... since then I have still yet learn my lesson in not telling others what to do... So I am NOT telling you what to do, ok?
You just have to think for yourself... when you start thinking in terms of selling at 45 for a "petty" profit of 43 at 21 times of cost as a loss, and you want to to get back in so badly because the stock price has run further up away from your selling point, there is a message hidden somewhere. You need to find it quick and it is not $$$$, but sense.
10) as usual, like all good story, here is the CYA (cover your ar**) - 'tis is just the usual Sunday whinge and nuthin' else because I am still broke as ever, hence your extreme precaution is needed because a cow's fart can really pollute your mind...
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 224
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 25, 2004 - 11:01 am: |
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State of the market - 25/10/04
Gainers
Losers
....just feel it!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 227
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 25, 2004 - 02:11 pm: |
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http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
The Perils of Circular Thinking...
"We’re all guilty of it from time to time -- fudging an assumption in order to validate a conclusion. But I am worried that this is starting to become the norm in the circular thinking that now pervades financial markets. In particular, concerns over debt, current account imbalances, and oil have been dismissed all too quickly, in my view. It’s as if the world has discovered a new means to cope with the once intractable. Such was the folly of the New Paradigm when Nasdaq was cresting at 5000 in early 2000. And such could well be the folly again in ignoring critical risks now bearing down on the global economy."
...
"Finally, consider the perils of another oil shock. The common pushback I get on this one is that oil prices aren’t high in real terms -- that they, in fact, remain well below the highs of the late 1970s and early 1980s. While technically correct, that point is all but irrelevant to macro impact analysis. What matters most in assessing growth risks is the change in real prices -- not levels."
...
"Macro is not hard science. At its best, it is a framework that depicts adjustments from disequilibrium back to equilibrium. Its strength lies in assessing the direction of change -- not in timing the shift with any great degree of precision. Turning points are invariably a question of exogenous event risk rather than the internal workings of an economy or collection of economies. In the end, however, macro is only as good as the assumptions that underpin the framework. To the extent that many of today’s key macro tensions are being assumed away by the seductive power of circular thinking, the risks are high that both policy makers and financial markets could be blindsided."
*** quite a good read, go read the whole thing.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 230
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 26, 2004 - 06:15 pm: |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3951003.stm
Here is some drink for thought...
"Cup of tea may help boost memory
Drinking regular cups of tea could help improve your memory, research suggests.
...
They say tea appears to have the same effect as drugs specifically designed to combat the condition.
Although there is no cure for Alzheimer's, tea could potentially be another weapon in the armoury.
Alzheimer's disease is associated with a reduced level of a chemical called acetylcholine in the brain.
In lab tests, the Newcastle team found that both green and black tea inhibited the activity of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase (AChE), which breaks down this key chemical.
They also found both teas inhibited the activity of a second enzyme butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE), which has been discovered in protein deposits found in the brain of patients with Alzheimer's.
Green tea went one step further in that it obstructed the activity of beta-secretase, which plays a role in the production of protein deposits in the brain which are associated with Alzheimer's disease.
The scientists also found that it continued to have its inhibitive effect for a week, whereas black tea's enzyme-inhibiting properties lasted for only one day. "
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 231
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 26, 2004 - 06:23 pm: |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3943847.stm
Last Updated: Friday, 22 October, 2004, 06:49 GMT 07:49 UK
China's economic boom slows down
Even though growth is slowing, it is still boom-time in China
China's economic growth has slowed for a third straight quarter as efforts by the government to rein in booming expansion continue to take hold.
Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was 9.1%, down from 9.6% in the second and 9.8% in the first.
...
Even though economists agree that the country's expansion needs to slow to ensure that it is sustainable, there are concerns that any dip in demand may have negative effects on corporate profits and growth worldwide.
Analysts said that China will be heartened by Friday's data, which showed urban fixed-asset investment, a key indicator, slowing.
It rose by 28% in the third quarter, less than the 30% increase seen in the previous six months.
Separate figures showed that consumer price growth slowed by more than expected in September. The annual rate of inflation was 5.2% last month, compared with a forecast of 5.3%.
"The modest slowdown in fixed-asset investment and the pronounced slowdown in inflation are what the authorities want to see," said Tim Condon of ING in Singapore.
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 232
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 26, 2004 - 06:55 pm: |
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One for the road. Have some fun, watch the bear battles the "running machine". The file is 5MB so will take some time if you don't have broadband.
http://www.xn--tlke-5qa.ch/fun/sports.wmv
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 235
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 27, 2004 - 10:51 am: |
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ASX Release 26 October 2004
AAV Forecasts Lower Earnings for 2004
AAV Limited EBITA for the twelve months to December 2004 is forecast to be in the range of $15.5 to $16.4 million, on total revenues of $154m.
~~~~~~~~~
AAV last checked down 70c to 1.72, a drop of about 28%+!
**The point I am trying to make here is this - when stock price moves higher (and higher), somewhere along the line, something has got to give WHEN/IF the company fails to deliver. The corollary is - as long as the company is delivering (a better result and is meeting BEYOND market expectation), the trend/ride will be fine; and the trend traders will be fine.
...For as long as the company delivers!
The food for thought here is this - is there an end to human greed? Is there an end to higher market expectation?
Will there be an end to all trend?
Define RISK/REWARD!
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 236
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 27, 2004 - 11:19 am: |
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AVV Weekly
With a 30W WMA, you might just get out a little earlier. But when something like AVV hits you, there won't be time for anything. Personally I like trend riding, but you/I/people/cats/dogs/cows should be really wary when the trend is 19 months old and the teeth are getting long... how flexible/inflexible/dogmatic one has to be to "win" in this game?
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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holycow
Member
Username: holycow
Post Number: 239
Registered: 08-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 27, 2004 - 01:12 pm: |
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Coalition 'complacent' on growth
October 27, 2004
"A draft report by the Productivity Commission into the much maligned policy, implemented by the Keating government in 1995, today found it had driven the economy for the best part of a decade.
It found that much of Australia's recent economic success was due to competition policy and its impact on the cost of doing business.
Commission chairman Garry Banks said across every benchmark, national competition policy delivered and continued to deliver, warning against slowing down the pace of reform, or even backsliding.
Mr Smith said in Canberra the draft report had underlined a very important policy and political point.
"It's redolent throughout the report and in the comments of the chairman of the commission that the Government has been complacent about the next level of productivity gains we have to make in Australia," he said.
"This Government has been very complacent about our international competitiveness and has relied essentially on the economic growth which has been generated by the reforms generated by the last Labor government."
These included opening up the economy, floating the dollar and changing Australia's nature as an international trading partner, Mr Smith said.
You can bet once the commodity boom blows over, the Aussie economy will decline to pre-boom level. At that point, a question would have to be asked: what will replace commodity as the next major forex earners? Services? Hi tech? If there is none, then expect the government and the private corporations will begin to crack their whips to squeeze more "productivity" out of the workers...
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,11201691%255E14312,00.html
HC
"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"
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dogalog
Member
Username: dogalog
Post Number: 442
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 27, 2004 - 03:02 pm: |
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what is this hc? back pages is suppose to maintain humour,and you,you start up with the above thoughts to skittishishness.
I wanna go on holiday HC and i don't want some stampede happening while i'm off,ok.
take any doom and d'gloom to where it's appreciated.This is the 'Family'rated G 4 Gladness Section,Mr 'have a great day'Cow.
avv-these new fangled auto-stops are a gut shot,don't you think?A gap down and it's skidsville.REAL lucky that there's responsible bodies caring/looking out for us 'sheep/cows/goats'hey? THEY[the baddies]wouldn't dare take advantage while d'sherrif ASIC on the job.
AVV,hc,that involvement with Regency.is the "Storeman n ???"
big still in Regency?---The Storeman n[click your fingers,]UNION
now you have a great day Holy Cow
jr
Ps-when peter loh comes here carrying on about MAH,and implying that i talk SULlage about it;i would appreciate if you could come up with a few points negative/nixin' d'MAH.mine are down the end of chinese trading thread.
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